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wxeyeNH

Long lasting intense Cold for New England

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To give some perspective on the Euro's modeled cold. Bradley Airport CT's lowest ten day average ever was 3.5 degrees ending 1961-01-29. The Euro has modeled this ten day period to ave 2.2 degrees.

KBDL_2017122612_forecast_240.png

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The MVL numbers continue to freak me out haha.

7 out of 9 days with a high temp that fails to exceed 0F.  Fak.

Look at the winds NYE, thats the killer in that period, watch the dog man, paws get frostbit 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 days of infamy cold on the Euro, geezus

Ginx,  Just looked at the Plymouth NH graph you posted.  Couple of -7F high temps.  I'm 700 feet higher than Plymouth and 6 mileish south.  I think my coldest max day since moving up here in 2001 was right around 0F.  Assuming I run at least a couple/several of degrees colder in situations like this, this would put me at near -10F highs.  Ten degrees colder daytime temps than I have ever seen.  I love the extreme weather but this seems  overdone?  We will see.  One thing is that seems to me is that Joe public is not aware how extreme this is going to be.  So much weather headlines the past week has been the storms that really no one has talked much about this cold wave. 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at the winds NYE, thats the killer in that period, watch the dog man, paws get frostbit 

Yeah great point.  I always wonder but we usually won't do our long afternoon walk if it's under 10F.  She'll very quickly start lifting one paw up like she wants to keep it off the cold snow.  It always seems to be if it's under 10-15F so looks like she isn't getting much outdoor exercise for the next two weeks.  That part definitely sucks.  Even with paw boots (no way my lab would let me near her with those things) I don't think it's wise to be out with the dog at those temps for any significant time.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah great point.  I always wonder but we usually won't do our long afternoon walk if it's under 10F.  She'll very quickly start lifting one paw up like she wants to keep it off the cold snow.  It always seems to be if it's under 10-15F so looks like she isn't getting much outdoor exercise for the next two weeks.  That part definitely sucks.  Even with paw boots (no way my lab would let me near her with those things) I don't think it's wise to be out with the dog at those temps for any significant time.

Yea does suck, do you have a indoor basketball court nearby? And lol at the Paw boots, yea good luck. My friend in Quebec who adopted one of our fosters made Paw boots to take Buck out cross country skiing with him, I'll see if I can find the pic. LOL

euro does over blow cold so hopefully not as bad although EPS averages you 20 below climo each day for the next 8. When you average 15 to 18 a day that is a below zero daily average, yikes

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14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ginx,  Just looked at the Plymouth NH graph you posted.  Couple of -7F high temps.  I'm 700 feet higher than Plymouth and 6 mileish south.  I think my coldest max day since moving up here in 2001 was right around 0F.  Assuming I run at least a couple/several of degrees colder in situations like this, this would put me at near -10F highs.  Ten degrees colder daytime temps than I have ever seen.  I love the extreme weather but this seems  overdone?  We will see.  One thing is that seems to me is that Joe public is not aware how extreme this is going to be.  So much weather headlines the past week has been the storms that really no one has talked much about this cold wave. 

Yea Euro does seem to run cold but we will track to see, with your pack though any radiating nights you are going to rocket down with -25 to -30 850s overhead

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The MVL numbers continue to freak me out haha.

7 out of 9 days with a high temp that fails to exceed 0F.  Fak.

DEC 89 I know gets talked about as the benchmark for DEC cold, looking at this COOP from Morrisville from 89, this smaller scale spell seems much worse than any 10 days during 89(if it comes anywhere near fruition) Dec 89 obviously was more wall to wall cold throughout the month though which is super impressive in its on right.

1 day with a high below zero in 89, looks like some big time rad cooling at the end of that month with some 40-50F swings between highs and lows. Maybe Euro is overdoing the cold for this upcoming cold spell.

Im sure there may be better 10 day analogs out there, DEC 89 just jumped into my head because its talked about all the time.

 

image.thumb.png.72b4a8b922777f5e97c19befba05c583.png


 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

 

DEC 89 I know gets talked about as the benchmark for DEC cold, looking at this COOP from Morrisville from 89, this smaller scale spell seems much worse than any 10 days during 89(if it comes anywhere near fruition) Dec 89 obviously was more wall to wall cold throughout the month though which is super impressive in its on right.

1 day with a high below zero in 89, looks like some big time rad cooling at the end of that month with some 40-50F swings between highs and lows. Maybe Euro is overdoing the cold for this upcoming cold spell.

Im sure there may be better 10 day analogs out there, DEC 89 just jumped into my head because its talked about all the time.

 

image.thumb.png.72b4a8b922777f5e97c19befba05c583.png

2004 actually had the coldest  10 day spell there with average temp of 

-5.8 2004-01-16

 

 

2004-01-07 15 -3 6.0 -10.5 59 0 0.01
2004-01-08 -2 -22 -12.0 -28.4 77 0 T
2004-01-09 -8 -23 -15.5 -31.7 80 0 T
2004-01-10 -3 -21 -12.0 -28.1 77 0 0.00
2004-01-11 19 -25 -3.0 -18.9 68 0 T
2004-01-12 23 8 15.5 -0.3 49 0 0.10
2004-01-13 20 -13 3.5 -12.2 61 0 0.05
2004-01-14 -9 -19 -14.0 -29.6 79 0 0.00
2004-01-15 -11 -34 -22.5 -38.0 87 0 T
2004-01-16 6 -15

 

10 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I just read the Gray AFD.  Lots of talk about the upcoming cold but all and all kind of meh compared to what I am seeing on the models.  Nothing to really raise red flags that this could be something to rival some of the bigger cold snaps in recent history.  

I

It’s not going to be the most brutal cold in history, but it’s very cold air for a long period of time. We’ve had 492-498 thicknesses before. My guess is euro srfc temps are just a little too cold.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

To give some perspective on the Euro's modeled cold. Bradley Airport CT's lowest ten day average ever was 3.5 degrees ending 1961-01-29. The Euro has modeled this ten day period to ave 2.2 degrees.

 

While I agree that the Euro is a cold for some of those temps, I'd love to see a daytime high near zero and some morning lows near -20.  Between the Christmas snow and the cold along with a few snow chances, this is a pretty good stretch of winter if you asked me.

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17 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

While I agree that the Euro is a cold for some of those temps, I'd love to see a daytime high near zero and some morning lows near -20.  Between the Christmas snow and the cold along with a few snow chances, this is a pretty good stretch of winter if you asked me.

I'd like a little more snow OTG, but compared to other Decembers...I will take it.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm ok with it because of the Christmas event...other than that, it would be forgettable snowfallwise.

Lol what do you average in Dec climo wise 12?

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Doesn't Madison hold the record for coldest overnight low? I recall sometime in the 90's they got down to -40F something.

Farmington reached -39 on 1/20/1994, for their coldest on record.  Madison's records don't go back as far, and I don't think they've gotten down that low.  State record was set in 2009 at Big Black River, with -50, and there were lots of mid -40s that morning in Aroostook.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Farmington reached -39 on 1/20/1994, for their coldest on record.  Madison's records don't go back as far, and I don't think they've gotten down that low.  State record was set in 2009 at Big Black River, with -50, and there were lots of mid -40s that morning in Aroostook.

That is mind blowing. I can't wrap my head around that.

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The Christmas snow will probably help you guys down there with the cold.  I wonder how much temperature is shaved off with a snow covered ground versus bare ground?  As far as what is good for a snow event, as long as you can't see the tips of the grass your good to go for a winter appeal.  Hopefully, yesterday morning's snow provided that for at least most of the major population areas of SNE.  

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

The Christmas snow will probably help you guys down there with the cold.  I wonder how much temperature is shaved off with a snow covered ground versus bare ground?  As far as what is good for a snow event, as long as you can't see the tips of the grass your good to go for a winter appeal.  Hopefully, yesterday morning's snow provided that for at least most of the major population areas of SNE.  

LOL, I said the exact thing. This is pretty much true except for wind blown areas. We only had a patch here or there prior to yesterday's snow. However since that was an overperformer here...I will take it.

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