tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Lots of potential. Flow looks to be wnw to nnw. Could be some rare Rochester area thunder snow. Rare for lake effect anyway. I have seen in in roc 3 times from lake snow. 1 from Erie 2 from ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 -10 f air over md 40s water. Yeah thats extreme. With decent background moisture and the stage is set for a huge roc event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hard not to drool on the laptop reading this. Let's get this into the short term and everyone here will be in business (except Tim in Rochester - the latest models are clearing showing warm temps, high shear, low cap, and no snow for Rochester for the next 30 days.....sorry T - have to bust you a little bit for being the biggest homer on this board...). .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active, snowy, cold period is expected to unfold as a deep longwave trough sets up over Eastern North America. Saturday night an area of low pressure to our west will be losing its strength as upper level energy is transferred to a developing coastal low. An inverted surface trough will remain over the Eastern Great Lakes region, providing a convergent area and lift for synoptic snow showers. Added lake moisture will bring highest PoPs to near the lakes. As the coastal low lifts northeastward, cold northwest winds will bring lake effect snow southeast of the lakes, especially off Lake Ontario. High pressure crossing the Midwest Sunday, and south of our region Sunday night will bring backing winds to the plumes of lake effect snow. This will likely weaken the bands briefly before lake snows reorganize off moderate lake instability on a southwest wind to the northeast of the lakes. At this time it looks like moisture will remain ample in the snow dendritic growth zone for lake effect snow Sunday and Sunday night. Another cold front will slip into the Central Great Lakes Sunday night, and moisture pooling ahead of this cold front could strengthen the lake effect snow Sunday night off Lake Erie by increasing ambient moisture, and then increase lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario Monday. Monday will also be windy across the region, with southwest winds bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph across the lake plains. The cold front (Clipper) will pass across the Eastern Great Lakes Monday night. This will likely bring snow across the entire region as the front passes...and then usher in the coldest air of the winter season thus far. It`s still early, but the GFS (850 hPa temperatures around -16 to -18C) and ECMWF (850 hPa temperatures around -20 to -24C) suggest highs Tuesday in the lower 20s, and Wednesday in the teens...and if the colder ECMWF verifies then these forecasted temperatures will be a bit too warm. Lake effect snow will continue both Tuesday and Wednesday with the flow likely to have a northerly component to the wind. This will drive lake snows across the Western So. Tier, and along the southern and southeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: -10 f air over md 40s water. Yeah thats extreme. With decent background moisture and the stage is set for a huge roc event Don't want it too cold though, really not good for good LES events. Big time single digit/low teens LES events are quite rare. https://weather.com/wunderground/news/news/can-it-be-too-cold-to-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hey I love snow. Seen some amazing snowstorms here in the roc. Nothing like a strong ne wind and low in Hudson valley. Snows like a mother in roc. Lol. But I enjoy every one in forum getting there own as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think Dave is a big homer as well. I am actually 15 miles east of city in Wayne county. Probally get 10 to 20 inches more a season than at airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hey I love snow. Seen some amazing snowstorms here in the roc. Nothing like a strong ne wind and low in Hudson valley. Snows like a mother in roc. Lol. But I enjoy every one in forum getting there own as well So after reading the latest AFD that Buffalo Bumble posted I would love to jump in to the icy cold waters and believe...but after this first round im holding judgement for 36 more hours...if that forecast verified we will be looking at substantial accumulations all over WNY. The snow pack will be deep and a tremendous early ski season will be on along with snowmobiling and all winter activities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 I just want to experience this, anything else...meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 How much snow did buffalo get today 1 to 3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: How much snow did buffalo get today 1 to 3 inches? 0-1" in the city proper. The northeastern suburbs caught a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 0-1" in the city proper. The northeastern suburbs caught a couple inches. Caught 2.1" on my snow board, which is placed on my hot tub cover which is well protected from any west component wind. In Williamsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 ...Erie County... Williamsville 2.5 642 PM 12/06 Social Media Buffalo Airport 1.7 700 PM 12/06 ASOS 2 S Lancaster 1.5 620 PM 12/06 Social Media ...Genesee County... Alabama 3.5 630 PM 12/06 Social Media Elba 2.5 600 PM 12/06 Social Media ...Orleans County... Holley 1.5 635 PM 12/06 Social Media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Jeez thats a huge bust from the 2 feet forecasted couple days ago. Heartbreaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yeah in a nutshell here is how today verified.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah in a nutshell here is how today verified.... Today is only the 6th. That map is until the 8th, the real event is tonight into tomorrow night. The problem is winds will be W not WSW/SW as originally anticipated. The NAM was the first to catch on. They just moved the highest totals 25 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah in a nutshell here is how today verified.... Great map, spot on. Literally the biggest bust in the 10+ years I've been following the weather on these forums (back to Eastern Wx days). This one is gonna take a long long time to get over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's going to be real close tomorrow for farther Buffalo southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 As OSU stated, don't make LES prediction maps 3 days out from the start of the event. Any change in wind direction can change the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Today is only the 6th. That map is until the 8th, the real event is tonight into tomorrow night. The problem is winds will be W not WSW/SW as originally anticipated. The NAM was the first to catch on. They just moved the highest totals 25 miles south. Not really. They had widespread 18-24" totals and now they have widespread 12-18". There was also a 24-30" bullseye in there as well. Obviously it was only our own faults that we bought in and I know in my case, I was all in when I saw a map from the NWS (not accuweather, or TWC) showing it. Hard lesson learned that NWS way overestimates on their maps and not to trust anything for lake effect until we're within 24 hours. Props to the people who shared their skepticism of what the NWS was showing, your reasons were completely valid so I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nws usually over estimates buffalo and under estimates roc in regards to lake snow. Just a observation. Probally due to fact it's more difficult to predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As OSU stated, don't make LES prediction maps 3 days out from the start of the event. Any change in wind direction can change the outcome. Understood but any way you slice it the forecast busted, BIG TIME. Even as of this morning as I watched the news all 3 stations in Buffalo were calling for AT LEAST 3-6" for the southtowns tonight. As I've previously stated I'm at 0.7" for the day and I bet your not even at that as I was in Hamburg a few hours ago and there was literally not even a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Not really. They had widespread 18-24" totals and now they have widespread 12-18". There was also a 24-30" bullseye in there as well. Obviously it was only our own faults that we bought in and I know in my case, I was all in when I saw a map from the NWS (not accuweather, or TWC) showing it. Hard lesson learned that NWS way overestimates on their maps and not to trust anything for lake effect until we're within 24 hours. Props to the people who shared their skepticism of what the NWS was showing, your reasons were completely valid so I'm impressed. Rule I use for KBUF snow maps in my vicinity (southern Oswego Cty and extrapolated to fringe areas just south) is divide by 2 (except up on the Tug). Also extent of coverage usually a bit too optimistic. KBGM usually pretty good when you compare maps in adjacent areas of CNY. Maybe you guys can con KBGM forecasters to put out some snow maps for WNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nws usually over estimates buffalo and under estimates roc in regards to lake snow. Just a observation. Probally due to fact it's more difficult to predict It goes both ways. They overestimate and have underestimated many times in the past. That's the beauty of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I blame some of this "forecast bust" on the Cuomo debacle from 2014. The NWS wants to ensure that they are never seen as underestimating an event (even though they didnt that time) when it could have a significant impact. This raises the most critical question. Why do people care when a forecast busts in a generally positive direction (IE: Forecast a lot, get a little)? Its the classic scenario of erring on the side of caution. If they bust the other way its truly dangerous and could cause major issues. Busting high is just a relief for the general pop. One argument might be that schools or roads close preemptively and then nothing happens. Well so what, at least no one was caught off guard and nothing unfortunate happens. Furthermore, forecast busts of this magnitude are quite rare so it's not like this is a chronic issue and costing large sums of money. It's frustrating. -end rant- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I blame some of this "forecast bust" on the Cuomo debacle from 2014. The NWS wants to ensure that they are never seen as underestimating event (even though they didnt that time) when it could have a significant impact. This raises the most critical question. Why do people care when a forecast busts in a generally positive direction (IE: Forecast a lot, get a little)? Its the classic scenario of erring on the side of caution. If they bust the other way its truly dangerous and could cause major issues. Busting high is just a relief for the general pop. One argument might be that schools or roads close preemptively and then nothing happens. Well so what, at least no one was caught off guard and nothing unfortunate happens. Furthermore, forecast busts of this magnitude are quite rare so it's not like this is a chronic issue and costing large sums of money. It's frustrating. -end rant- I agree completely with all of this. The NWS receives it's funding from the governmental regulated NOAA correct? The new administration has already made several large cuts to its funding as he is "anti global warming". Probably all speculation but I'm sure the NWS is eerily worried about any negative publicity they may receive and thus perpetuating that through the government leader in charge, IE Cuomo blaming them again. It's better to be safe than sorry and agree, erring on the side of caution is always the best course to take. In relation to this topic, didn't this all start with the Dec. 2010 event in which people got stuck in their cars for 36-48 hours on the thruway because the NWS didn't properly predict how much snow would fall? 42" in Depew for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Rule I use for KBUF snow maps in my vicinity (southern Oswego Cty and extrapolated to fringe areas just south) is divide by 2 (except up on the Tug). Also extent of coverage usually a bit too optimistic. KBGM usually pretty good when you compare maps in adjacent areas of CNY. Maybe you guys can con KBGM forecasters to put out some snow maps for WNY? What ever happened to that KBGM met that was supposed to join the forums? I was pumped for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Not really. They had widespread 18-24" totals and now they have widespread 12-18". There was also a 24-30" bullseye in there as well. Obviously it was only our own faults that we bought in and I know in my case, I was all in when I saw a map from the NWS (not accuweather, or TWC) showing it. Hard lesson learned that NWS way overestimates on their maps and not to trust anything for lake effect until we're within 24 hours. Props to the people who shared their skepticism of what the NWS was showing, your reasons were completely valid so I'm impressed. Well WSW/SW winds create very strong snowfall rates, thus the higher snowfall totals. The W/WNW winds tonight into tomorrow are not condusive to singular strong bands. That's why the highest totals drop. If winds were WSW tonight and tomorrow like the models originally had Sunday night then we would have a strong band of LES over central Erie county tonight/into tomorrow instead of ski country/springville and would have hit those projected totals. All praise the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What ever happened to that KBGM met that was supposed to join the forums? I was pumped for that. Dunno. Probably too appalled. if i was in their position, I probably lurk but wouldn't partake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 We have some hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I agree completely with all of this. The NWS receives it's funding from the governmental regulated NOAA correct? The new administration has already made several large cuts to its funding as he is "anti global warming". Probably all speculation but I'm sure the NWS is eerily worried about any negative publicity they may receive and thus perpetuating that through the government leader in charge, IE Cuomo blaming them again. It's better to be safe than sorry and agree, erring on the side of caution is always the best course to take. In relation to this topic, didn't this all start with the Dec. 2010 event in which people got stuck in their cars for 36-48 hours on the thruway because the NWS didn't properly predict how much snow would fall? 42" in Depew for that event. Sort of OT but since you mentioned it...I caught some inside info at a Skywarn training session this fall. Apparently a lot of positions haven't been filled in many NWSFO's, including KBGM, resulting in a lot of hours worked to cover shifts. One can imagine morale suffers but the forecasters and offices still do a great job (IMO). So people (including myself) should probably pause a bit before dumping on NWSFO's for being off on some random snowfall forecast... Also, the staffing level and other funding shortfall issues didn't start with the current administration or Comgress in DC...it's been going on for quite a number of years. Of course it's Congess that ultimately passes appropriations and sets budgets...the executive branch lobbies etc., and can veto but even if a prez did object to NWS funding (if they even know what NWS is), not likely they'd kill an entire Federal appropriations bill over that one "backwater" issue. So, relative to funding...it's not really an issue of who believes what re: AGW, its more a case of a general lack of science-related funding from D.C. Spending priorities are clearly elsewhere. I'll leave it that as I don't want to provoke or engage in political debates & whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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