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20 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Started working on this during our November lull... Guess it's about time to wrap it up.  Little choppy in parts and the sound could be better but I put together some of my favorite clips covering our major storms from 1977-2017.  Let me know what you guys think...

 

Lurker here who just signed up to comment on your video. I think it turned out very nice even though I had terrible flash backs of the 7 feet storm. I had just bought my f-350 and was my first time ever snow plowing in that storm, talk about trial by fire. All my places were in south cheektowaga, harlem and william area and the one time I got stuck was when I got home and had to plow my driveway to park my truck and feel asleep pushing a pile onto my front lawn with the plow up after 50 some hours of being out

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26 minutes ago, Vicarious said:

Lurker here who just signed up to comment on your video. I think it turned out very nice even though I had terrible flash backs of the 7 feet storm. I had just bought my f-350 and was my first time ever snow plowing in that storm, talk about trial by fire. All my places were in south cheektowaga, harlem and william area and the one time I got stuck was when I got home and had to plow my driveway to park my truck and feel asleep pushing a pile onto my front lawn with the plow up after 50 some hours of being out

That montage is well done!!! What memories  and heres to more!!!

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Channel 4 just showed their in house model...man that lake band looks like total crap, looks shredded and spotty. Don't have a good feeling with all these meso models showing a very unimpressive band, this is their specialty so I take them more seriously over globals... I could see this thing busting big time from the forecasted 12-24" with local 3' amounts..

 

i think OSU was right, nice call when everyone else (including myself) was jumping on the hype train. 

 

Edit it to add: Todd Santos from channel for just called for 4-8" of snow for the southtowns... big difference from the 12-24"+ the NWS is calling for...

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The NAM is within its range and doesn't show much. The NWS just updated their watch at 9 PM and shows the same accumulation totals. I think tomorrow night we will get a clearer picture on band placement and intensity. I don't think anyone gets 2' out of this. Thinking more in the range of what we all originally agreed on 8-16" for highest areas. Either way should be a fun first event. Early thoughts 8-16" Buffalo southtowns/Lancaster/Depew. 6-10" Buffalo Metro/Airport. 3-6" for Buffalo Northtowns. Ski country with upslope will also get 8-14" most likely, doesn't take much for it to snow down there. 

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Nah cuz, too close to the event to disregard the Nam.  Its well within its wheelhouse! I guess we'll all see the outcome!

Idk i’d go with pattern recognition on this one, setup looks decent for quick foot or so for areas around the city and upwards of 2ft just south of it where band lingers most.

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Next weekend has a 3rd event. Looks W/SW as well. Going to be insane, I told you guys this 10 days ago.

 

Scoring one's self, before verification isn't too smart, but you sound smart enough to know this, right?

A flake of Snow hasn't fallen yet anywhere but you told us 10 days ago, about what exactly?

Ppl usually pat themselves on their back after the said forecasted time has come and gone for verification, and I'll be the first to congratulate you. Not 10 days before! It's gonna be 55 with +RN tday, so let's get through this, then we'll see what the LED event brings.

I for one hope your right, so I'll revisit this 10 days from tomorrow.

 

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Idk i’d go with pattern recognition on this one, setup looks decent for quick foot or so for areas around the city and upwards of 2ft just south of it where band lingers most.

I seriously hope your right brutha, as I'd like to see someone buried, after all this damn hyping, lol!
Transient nature of the band's, H7 moisture is paltry at best (Better over NNY), shear within the boundary layer. It's gonna be tough to overcome such parameters but I guess it could happen, if the incoming airmass was as frigid as the next, but the air with this first front is not terribly cold so...... But as with all LES events, we'll see what happens as were 24hrs away from something, lol.

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18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Keep in mind bufs accumulation map includes the warm advection part of the event later Thursday.  So even if the city gets 3 to 6 or 5 to 8 or something like that tomorrow...the map could still end up alright.  

Bufs new map shows the city itself with only 6-8" total through Friday. Also in the watches they slashed the totals big time for N Erie from 1-2 feet to 6-12", and S Erie from 2-3 feet to 8-16"...

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Bufs new map shows the city itself with only 6-8" total through Friday. Also in the watches they slashed the totals big time for N Erie from 1-2 feet to 6-12", and S Erie from 2-3 feet to 8-16"...

Ahh good.   This is what happens when u issue accumulation maps for an event 48 to 84 hours out.  

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Well im not even certain with the lower level temps projected to be in the mid 30's tomorrow much will stick at first anyway, ground is warm, maybe when the band intensifies later during rush hour that will cause some slick spots. My other observation is this "cold snap" doesn't appear to be very cold. Not one temp on the 20's through next monday and several above the freezing mark. Looks like hype more than substance so far regarding the arctic blasts we are supposed to see through mid month.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well im not even certain with the lower level temps projected to be in the mid 30's tomorrow much will stick at first anyway, ground is warm, maybe when the band intensifies later during rush hour that will cause some slick spots. My other observation is this "cold snap" doesn't appear to be very cold. Not one temp on the 20's through next monday and several above the freezing mark. Looks like hype more than substance so far regarding the arctic blasts we are supposed to see through mid month.

The mean 850mb anomaly for the next 15 days on the EPS is nearly -6c.  That's tremendous on a 15 day forecast. The coldest air is probably in the 6-12 day range, not much of it is in the forecast yet. The majority of the low-level air is coming on westerly flow with no snow cover (yet) so the 2m temperature departure will be somewhat muted. Call that hype, I guess.

 

 

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5 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Scoring one's self, before verification isn't too smart, but you sound smart enough to know this, right?

A flake of Snow hasn't fallen yet anywhere but you told us 10 days ago, about what exactly?

Ppl usually pat themselves on their back after the said forecasted time has come and gone for verification, and I'll be the first to congratulate you. Not 10 days before! It's gonna be 55 with +RN tday, so let's get through this, then we'll see what the LED event brings.

I for one hope your right, so I'll revisit this 10 days from tomorrow.

 

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Not sure what you mean but the pattern looks great for cold and lots of chances of LES. It's all coming to fruition. You can predict temperatures pretty easily 10 days before, precipitation on the other hand is tough to predict at any timeframe, especially mesoscale events like LES.

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2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

The mean 850mb anomaly for the next 15 days on the EPS is nearly -6c.  That's tremendous on a 15 day forecast. The coldest air is probably in the 6-12 day range, not much of it is in the forecast yet. The majority of the low-level air is coming on westerly flow with no snow cover (yet) so the 2m temperature departure will be somewhat muted. Call that hype, I guess.

 

 

Yeah not sure what more you can ask for for mid december. Who wants extreme cold? Give me 25-30 deg and lots of snow events all winter.If we get the cold I'll take my chances with the snow, especially being on the eastern side of a large lake. New England folks can get lots of cold with little snow, but that's very rare for LES areas.

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25 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Next week Dave looks good for roc

Honestly at this moment im off the train. The latest NWS AFD is discussing how the models are at very different odds 2 days from now. Seems to be alot of confusion in the models or chaos with the pattern evolution and right now I dont think anything is out of the question in the next 2 weeks.

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4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ahh good.   This is what happens when u issue accumulation maps for an event 48 to 84 hours out.  

Looks like dry air is the main issue with this event? It seems the synoptic support that was there a few days ago is completely gone. The northern lakes have much better moisture profiles.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Maybe in certain areas but i feel over the next 2 1/2 days 8 to 12 fir the metro seems plausible...calling for a few inches each time the band moves through although i would argue the lower end for sure.

Yeah RGEM has a nice 6-10" through noon thurs for airport to southtowns. It's usually a solid model for LES.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like dry air is the main issue with this event? It seems the synoptic support that was there a few days ago is completely gone. The northern lakes have much better moisture profiles.

Yeah I think dry air is the main problem.  It looked better when BUF issued their initial map.  But it's not completely gone, I'm interested to see what the band looks like in the early morning tomorrow, because the reg has it better then, then a weakening later, then restregthening in the evening before heading to ski country. 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah I think dry air is the main problem.  It looked better when BUF issued their initial map.  But it's not completely gone, I'm interested to see what the band looks like in the early morning tomorrow, because the reg has it better then, then a weakening later, then restregthening in the evening before heading to ski country. 

 

 

To my untrained eye it appears the best chance for disruptive snowfall the metro area and nearby northtowns will be during the evening commute tomorrow and POTENTIALLY  thursday night Friday morning although that time rrame is where the models are arguing with eachother. 

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