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40/70 Benchmark

Winter 2017-2018 Outook

24 posts in this topic

Left ya a question in your post out on the main forum.

 

Really nice work. Your commitment shows and a well thought out and educational post. We pray for blocking.

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Yes, and I thought about that as I finished...I don't event count the snow totals until I have written the narrative. I expected the composite to be a bit snowier......but as you know, that is a cap shoot, anyway.

The main point that I wasted to get across was that we can't just paint a yellow blob over the east this year.

We have KU potential this season....just need the timing.

I would not be shocked in the least if I busted low on snowfall...would be shocked if I were too high.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, and I thought about that as I finished...I don't event count the snow totals until I have written the narrative. I expected the composite to be a bit snowier......but as you know, that is a cap shoot, anyway.

The main that I wasted to get across was that we can just paint a yellow blob over the east this year.

Yeah I get it...just curious to what your thought process is. Good stuff dude.

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Very good and educational post Ray, good job.  I just have one question for you?  Why don't you do forecast snowfall for say a location on Cape Cod as we are part of your forecast locations?  Also wouldn't higher SSTs over the benchmark allow better chances for stronger to more intense cyclogenesis off the East Coast?

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Nice job Ray you have explained the options very well.  Snowfall is such a wildcard, one big INVT, your favorite can bust you low. Lol. I did get a chuckle that your snow verifications at Tolland were too low yet Wilmington too high, you just can't beat Kev.:lol:

I think you need to add temps in your forecasts, it's the only thing needed in your dissertation. I appreciate the educational value of this. It's exactly what is needed. So many people strive to understand.

Good luck,  my money is on the slant sticker to eek out a win again.

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cool.  nice work ray.  

 

I've been looking at the Trans-Nino Index (TNI) myself. (Nino 4-1.2 normalized).  It's late summer-fall value is the best predictor of snow here. Just looking at the OLR/precip rate anomaly fields, it appears as though nino 1.2 anomaly being relatively colder than nino 4 ends up peeling the tropical convection off of Peru and the southern Caribbean which reduces the "downstream" strength of the SE ridge and allows more potential for western US/Canadian ridging and troughing in Atlantic Canada. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice job Ray you have explained the options very well.  Snowfall is such a wildcard, one big INVT, your favorite can bust you low. Lol. I did get a chuckle that your snow verifications at Tolland were too low yet Wilmington too high, you just can't beat Kev.:lol:

I think you need to add temps in your forecasts, it's the only thing needed in your dissertation. I appreciate the educational value of this. It's exactly what is needed. So many people strive to understand.

Good luck,  my money is on the slant sticker to eek out a win again.

I have temps in the composite at the end.

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have temps in the composite at the end.

No I mean in your city by city  stuff, like you do with snow. I think that and precip is important to a reanaylsis of methods, after all with snow you can be right for the wrong reasons and it would not show up in verification

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

No I mean in your city by city  stuff, like you do with snow. I think that and precip is important to a reanaylsis of methods, after all with snow you can be right for the wrong reasons and it would not show up in verification

Yes, which is why I writer up a verification post in May.

I was right for the wrong reason, Like Cohen, after the epic winter of 2014-2015, and I made that clear in the verification.

Some of us chose not to, but....lol

Which site do you use for the DM temp departures?

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I would also argue that snowfall can make your forecast look worse than it really was due to the high degree of variance and luck involved.

Look at the mega nino of 2015-2016.....I NAILED that blizzard in my outlook....time frame, right down to type if cyclogenesis, Miller A, zone of max impact in the mid atl and magnitude....yet my sne snowfall forecast ended up ostensibly bad because of the $hit streak of a deer in Limestone,  ME

This, too,  is what the verification post is for...the numbers sometimes belie the true quality of the body of work. 

 I know what you mean, though.

 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would also argue that snowfall can make your forecast look worse than it really was due to the high degree of variance and luck involved.

Look at the mega nino of 2015-2016.....I NAILED that blizzard in my outlook....time frame, right down to type if cyclogenesis, Miller A, zone of max impact in the mid atl and magnitude....yet my sne snowfall forecast ended up ostensibly bad because of the $hit streak of a dear in Limestone,  ME

This, too,  is what the verification post is for...the numbers sometimes belie the true quality of the body of work.

 

Your concentration on predicting snowfall amounts is admirable but since you go to such great lengths in your dissertation to spell out patterns, numbers such as temps and precip amounts will just add to the true quality of work.

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6 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Absolutely Incredible as always.  These have become the #1 Prediction I wait for all year.  Your Growth has been Historic and Extraordinary from Weather Fan to Weather Masterbater.

 

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I like how you breakdown enso. For someone like myself who isn’t well versed in it, your description starts from the bottom up..... So not only am I reading your outlook, I’m learning what the eff enso actually is and means...a weenie all inclusive cruise so to speak. 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like how you breakdown enso. For someone like myself who isn’t well versed in it, your description starts from the bottom up..... So not only am I reading your outlook, I’m learning what the eff enso actually is and means...a weenie all inclusive cruise so to speak. 

This comment makes the hours spent worth it, man...that's why I write it that meticulously. 

I'm glad.

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