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Hoosier

November 17-19 Wind/Rain/Snow

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Still a bit far out, but we have general model agreement on a deep low moving across the region during this time.  There should be severe potential (which may need its own thread) but I thought the non-severe thunderstorm aspects deserved a thread.

The wind potential could be decent, especially if the deeper solutions pan out. This would have the possibility for widespread wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria.  All in all, it could be a pretty classic Fall system.  

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still a bit far out, but we have general model agreement on a deep low moving across the region during this time.  There should be severe potential (which may need its own thread) but I thought the non-severe thunderstorm aspects deserved a thread.

The wind potential could be decent, especially if the deeper solutions pan out. This would have the possibility for widespread wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria.  All in all, it could be a pretty classic Fall system.  

Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. :) There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up!

The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences.

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1 hour ago, blackrock said:

Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. :) There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up!

The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences.

Still have a lot of leaves on the maples here. They went from yellow to sort of a dull brown with the cold temps (with a bit of green still).  Should lose a lot of leaves if the winds pan out.

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If this thing gets into the mid 970s or lower before exiting the US, it would enter some elite territory.  Very few storms have done that in November.

That swath in the MN/WI area was achieved in the November 1998 storm.

NovemberRecordLowSLPs.thumb.gif.fd9f79cfb71d2b83f548bef4442e8284.gif

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4 hours ago, blackrock said:

Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. :)There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up!

The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences.

I did the same, and agree with the bolded - was actually a great day with little wind and my grass didn't need cutting, finally!

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

WI and IL offices don't seem particularly concerned. MKX just mentions that wind advisory criteria may be met. Still 5 days out.

There'd be a shot at warning criteria imo, especially immediately post frontal as rapid CAA and pressure rises occur.  But yeah, naturally not going to get as much attention yet being 5-6 days out.

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I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so.

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Buffalo NWS is already mentioning the potential for high winds. 

 

"A strong storm system will move through the central Great Lakes next weekend. In the wake of its powerful cold front, wind gusts could exceed 60 mph. The strongest winds are expected late Saturday and Saturday night, and are most likely in a corridor from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester and also northeast of Lake Ontario in the Thousand Islands region"

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12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS is weaker, expect fluctuations though this far out

GGEM brings the entertainment though. That's an "exotic" solution. :wacko:

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The slow/stall on the GGEM in the MI area is a bit reminiscent of the 1913 White Hurricane storm, though that one was a bit deeper and the evolution to get to that point was different.  Most of the memorable deep lows like this end up being more progressive.

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From the NWS in Indianapolis:

A strong warm front will arrive ahead of a strong low pressure
pressure system. This will result in rain chances arriving late on
thursday night into Friday. Much of Friday will be spent within
the warm sector and the ECMWF and GFS suggest favorable
shear...but little in the way of instability and upper support.
However models do suggest ample moisture in the area. Thus we will
continue to go with a wet Friday...and watch for the potential for
severe weather also.

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I'm not a big fan of these systems that don't take off in intensity until reaching the lakes.  Makes for sort of a meh system for the western part of the sub.  Hopefully the system can rev up enough to deliver heavy snow to the lake peeps.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm not a big fan of these systems that don't take off in intensity until reaching the lakes.  Makes for sort of a meh system for the western part of the sub.  Hopefully the system can rev up enough to deliver heavy snow to the lake peeps.

Not looking very good in terms of snow prospects. :( It looks like it intensifies too late...perhaps the eastern Lakes.

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23 hours ago, Jim Martin said:

12z GFS further south. Low pressure area right along the Indiana/Ohio Toll Road Saturday Morning at 12z.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

Mid-winter, that would make for some headlines. Just a fallen leaf-soaker right now tho. Too cold for severe peeps, too warm for frozen peeps

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Still some model differences in the details (phasing/timing) with the NAM at one end and the GEM/UKMET at the other.  The latter two would probably have better impacts.

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Euro is close to the GGEM intensity, but just a bit farther north.

Locally speaking, would be nice to see this start bombing just a bit sooner to maximize the wind potential.  A lot of the deepening happens during the day on Saturday though so maybe there can be a bit of a diurnal assist in mixing down some gusts (though clouds/precip will be around).

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Watch the developing def zone type precip in parts of WI/IL/IN/MI.  Models have the cold playing catch up but if it comes in a bit quicker, could have wind blown wet snow to make things look a little dramatic.

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Watch the developing def zone type precip in parts of WI/IL/IN/MI.  Models have the cold playing catch up but if it comes in a bit quicker, could have wind blown wet snow to make things look a little dramatic.

Yeah, noticed suddenly the 3 globals at 12z have it getting into the 970's east in ONT. One raw raw Saturday eve/night verbatim, regardless. 

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, noticed suddenly the 3 globals at 12z have it getting into the 970's east in ONT. One raw raw Saturday eve/night verbatim, regardless. 

NAM showing more of a changeover on the back side.  I'm not sure it has a good handle on this system yet though.  Curious to see what it may show if it gets on board with the faster deepening of the globals.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.thumb.png.ff84c0910a2773ad0520d40a1159ae9e.png

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

NAM showing more of a changeover on the back side.  I'm not sure it has a good handle on this system yet though.  Curious to see what it may show if it gets on board with the faster deepening of the globals.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.thumb.png.ff84c0910a2773ad0520d40a1159ae9e.png

FWIW the NAM(s) did well with last Sunday's wet snow event.  

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

FWIW the NAM(s) did well with last Sunday's wet snow event.  

Yeah, it had been hinting at a changeover to snow in the enhanced band.  There are borderline low level thermal profiles so I'm not sure how much would actually accumulate.  Like I said though, it would be interesting to see the globals synoptics with the NAM temp profiles lol

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NAM is trying to do something.  Marginal temps but verbatim, wet snow with winds probably flirting with advisory criteria... even the guys out west like hawkeye and cyclone.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NAM is trying to do something.  Marginal temps but verbatim, wet snow with winds probably flirting with advisory criteria... even the guys out west like hawkeye and cyclone.  

Paying special attention to it because it's on the NAM, which has been doing remarkably well with thermal profiles so far this year. Hints of a similar solution on the GFS, but to a far lesser extent. Just like last time. It'll come down to whether the cold air coming in behind can catch up to the precip before it exits the area. Bears at least some watching.

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