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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion


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I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down.  Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside.

Looks like Wakefield calling it that way as well at the moment.

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Just now, JB Fins said:

I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down.  Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside.

I rarely post in the main thread cuz it’s always IMBY. You’ll get attacked if you’re from this area and you post about more snow down here than up there. 2-4 is a blend of GFS and EURO. I’m waiting for the 12z suite today 

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1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down.  Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside.

Looks like Wakefield calling it that way as well at the moment.

Does the NWS usuallly go conservative anyway? I don’t think they usually go higher until right before.

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Just now, JB Fins said:

That's a slight improvement for us in central VA compared to previous runs is it not?  0.4 to 0.9?  :P

Has the EURO ever caved to the NAM?  I know they all have their victories but hard to bet against the King in winter.

True but Nam only goes to 60 so that's with 6 hours of additional precip haha

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I dont think any of these models can accurately predict the front & back end accumulation yet...with all the mixing or just plain rain that could happen.. it's all going to depend on where this storm sets up a few miles can make a huge difference.

I expect a few hours of snow,  then mix to rain, then back to a mix/snow when it pulls away.. If we even get the wrap around. 

3-5 seems like a good total call for the RVA area but nobody really knows for sure yet. Could easily be nothing or more

 

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12 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Not much change in the GFS in terms of amounts. Primary goes into Ohio. We don’t get much on the backside. 2-4 throughout RVA

I thought it ticked up to 4-6" with some of the maps they posted in the storm thread.  I have very bad and worse, untrained eyes so I could be mistaken but it even looks like we pick up a nice slug of moisture on the backend.  

image.png.c6e02cc30afaa7d73db7fb914b677f3b.png

 

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6 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

I thought it ticked up to 4-6" with some of the maps they posted in the storm thread.  I have very bad and worse, untrained eyes so I could be mistaken but it even looks like we pick up a nice slug of moisture on the backend.  

image.png.c6e02cc30afaa7d73db7fb914b677f3b.png

 

Pivotal Kuchera has Richmond at 3.7, Petersburg at 1.8 so splitting hairs. Close enough 

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16 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Can someone post the models predictions for the front and back end dumps.

 

 

 

I haven't seen anything more than 1" on recent models for the back end - everything is more or less the front.  Dry slot and then maybe some light snow/showers for a few hours

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8 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

I haven't seen anything more than 1" on recent models for the back end - everything is more or less the front.  Dry slot and then maybe some light snow/showers for a few hours

Yeah models haven’t given us much on the back end. That’s tough for the models to predict though so could maybe be surprised 

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