RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Please let the EURO be similar to the UK. I’ll be a happy camper then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 i can rarely recall the back end working out here. The 2016 storm did but i cant think of another. i'd be happy with 6 inches in Powhatan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, feb11th1983 said: i can rarely recall the back end working out here. The 2016 storm did but i cant think of another. i'd be happy with 6 inches in Powhatan. The 2016 one was great. We got crushed on the back end. Was blizzard like conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 A nice reference here for multiple day/ big storms in RVA Including the 2016 11.4 inches About 6.1 inches day one About 5.3 inches day 2 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://glenallenweather.com/upload/richmondclimate/richsnow/GreatestSnows.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiKlpSP2sHuAhWkFFkFHcBbBEwQFjADegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw0auXBTqpNuLh8C3TmLc-aB Fyi... <You will need to download to see info > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 I apologize for just joining in on the discussion. I'm not on here as often as years past. I would be concerned about a faster changeover from snow to IP/ZR than we would like. And then of course there is the dreaded dry slot while we look to the north at DCA, PHL, etc. getting creamed. We saw this January 23-24, 2016, February 5-6, 2010, December 18-19, 2009, February 12-13, 2006, February 14-18, 2003 and January 6-8, 1996. Sometimes we are lucky, as was the case in 2016, 2010 and 1996, where RIC ADDed to its totals on the back in, but often times RIC is too far south and precip doesn't build back our way as it's getting colder. That said, I am really hoping for a solid 4"+ on the front end before things begin to go downhill. I am not confident about what the coastal will bring once it gets going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EURO is 6-8 for RVA. Would take that. Has a 5-10 event for many in the forum even in NOVA. Whatever snow we do get is going to come on the front end and let’s just hope to get lucky. When does the changeover to mix happen? That will determine how much snow we get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Stole this from the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s really close to being something huge. Depending on where the coastal forms and spins up, we could see a wild shift in snow totals. Glad I’m just an amateur weather lover and not a forecaster. Think you’re either going to bust really high or really low here no matter what you forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: It’s really close to being something huge. Depending on where the coastal forms and spins up, we could see a wild shift in snow totals. Glad I’m just an amateur weather lover and not a forecaster. Think you’re either going to bust really high or really low here no matter what you forecast. No doubt. I think they will all err on the low side, easier to explain that than calling for a foot and getting 2 inches. If we have to work this hard for a shot at 4 to 5 inches, geez, just don't know how many storms we have left in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: It’s really close to being something huge. Depending on where the coastal forms and spins up, we could see a wild shift in snow totals. Glad I’m just an amateur weather lover and not a forecaster. Think you’re either going to bust really high or really low here no matter what you forecast. If we can get the coastal closer to the coast and get it going a little sooner I think we’ll see more snow on the back end. Right now most of the models have it too far off the coast to really give us anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: EURO is 6-8 for RVA. Would take that. Has a 5-10 event for many in the forum even in NOVA. Whatever snow we do get is going to come on the front end and let’s just hope to get lucky. When does the changeover to mix happen? That will determine how much snow we get Yup, I love the overrunning events! December 9, 2018, February 16-17, 2015, January 30-31, 2010, etc come to mind. Bona fide Miller A's, where the primary low forms in the gulf and move up the coast, are better. But seems like they don't happen anymore, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RIC Airport said: Yup, I love the overrunning events! December 9, 2018, February 16-17, 2015, January 30-31, 2010, etc come to mind. Bona fide Miller A's, where the primary low forms in the gulf and move up the coast, are better. But seems like they don't happen anymore, lol. They seem like a rarity now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, JB Fins said: If we have to work this hard for a shot at 4 to 5 inches, geez, just don't know how many storms we have left in this area. I don’t know if that’s the best way to look at it, but what do i know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: I don’t know if that’s the best way to look at it, but what do i know? Just me lamenting...temps and mixing are always an issue here so just years of frustration for not living further north or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: They seem like a rarity now Yup, I guess we technically had one recently, February 12-13, 2014, where RIC recorded 5.8", but we flipped to IP/ZR pretty rapidly. I don't recall the details, but the pattern was NOT a favorable one. In fact, the NAO was raging positive among other things so it makes sense we flipped with such a storm track, probably was a bootleg airmass, too. Maybe March 1-2, 2009 was one? I honestly can't remember the last one where we scored 10"+.....maybe February 10-11, 1983? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, JB Fins said: Just me lamenting...temps and mixing are always an issue here so just years of frustration for not living further north or west. Want more snow? Move up north!! I kid, I kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 There are other scenarios such as January 25, 2000 and February 16, 1996 where the primary forms off the SC/ NC coast and track northward. We do well in those, too. Sometimes they are too far east such as January 3, 2018 and December 26, 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 i dont recall the set up but we got a foot in Powhatan in mid December of 2018. Anyone care to comment why Miller A's have beome rare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 45 minutes ago, feb11th1983 said: i dont recall the set up but we got a foot in Powhatan in mid December of 2018. Anyone care to comment why Miller A's have beome rare? I wonder if climate change has something to do with it. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18Z HRRR looks good through 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Not really in the range where the HRRR is reliable but I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM that’s nice!! (18z) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well we are officially under a Winter Storm Watch .. for 2-5 inches lol Winter Storm Watch from SAT 10:00 PM EST until SUN 7:00 PM EST Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By Wakefield - VA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of central, east central and north central Virginia Description ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. In addition, sleet and freezing rain may result in ice accumulations. WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central Virginia. WHEN...From late Saturday evening through Sunday evening. IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Hourly Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treyfish Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 watches out for Richmond area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: ^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different? Looks like that’s the regular NAM. The other is the 12K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: ^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different? Sleet mix possibly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Sleet mix possibly? Could very well be that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Either way, should take NAM totals with a grain of salt. Will be more in its range tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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