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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Interesting that it has been 5 years since Springfield, MO has seen a 3" snow from a single event. Pathetic... even for around here.

Heck I think its been even longer for here, we moved to Fayetteville in summer of 2013 and that winter season was the last time I saw measureable snow over that amount too lol. Ever since its been 1" or less that's it. I think one of the following years we got almost 2" from something but man that was a long long time ago it feels now. It is pathetic, really crazy for up there!

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28 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Heck I think its been even longer for here, we moved to Fayetteville in summer of 2013 and that winter season was the last time I saw measureable snow over that amount too lol. Ever since its been 1" or less that's it. I think one of the following years we got almost 2" from something but man that was a long long time ago it feels now. It is pathetic, really crazy for up there!

Here’s some interesting history for you for Fayetteville snowfall over the years.  Maybe this helps you feel better.  Or not...

Here are the top 4 maximum snowfall years since records started in 1949.  
 

1.  27” in 2010

2.  23.5” - 1978

3.  20.5 - 1960

4. 20.4 - 2011 

That means 2 of the top four record years were within the last 10 years.   
 

Unfortunately 3 of the bottom 7 years have occurred since 2012.   And 8 of the bottom 10 have occurred since 1998.  
 

2 inches a year keeps you out of the bottom 10 so it doesn’t take much.  

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Here’s some interesting history for you for Fayetteville snowfall over the years.  Maybe this helps you feel better.  Or not...

Here are the top 4 maximum snowfall years since records started in 1949.  
 

1.  27” in 2010

2.  23.5” - 1978

3.  20.5 - 1960

4. 20.4 - 2011 

That means 2 of the top four record years were within the last 10 years.   
 

Unfortunately 3 of the bottom 7 years have occurred since 2012.   And 8 of the bottom 10 have occurred since 1998.  
 

2 inches a year keeps you out of the bottom 10 so it doesn’t take much.  

Man I remember my buddy here telling me about those 2 in 2010 and 2011!! Crazy how mother nature is, goes from that to this lol. Thanks for sharing, very very interesting!!

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Bentonville had enough to barely coat the grass and rooftops.  I wouldn’t even call it a dusting.  

I saw a small wee bit on rooftops also but thats it nothing else. Temps have come up some again so that is now melted off.

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On 1/23/2020 at 9:31 PM, The Waterboy said:

Here’s some interesting history for you for Fayetteville snowfall over the years.  Maybe this helps you feel better.  Or not...

Here are the top 4 maximum snowfall years since records started in 1949.  
 

1.  27” in 2010

2.  23.5” - 1978

3.  20.5 - 1960

4. 20.4 - 2011 

That means 2 of the top four record years were within the last 10 years.   
 

Unfortunately 3 of the bottom 7 years have occurred since 2012.   And 8 of the bottom 10 have occurred since 1998.  
 

2 inches a year keeps you out of the bottom 10 so it doesn’t take much.  

Having lived through 2 of the 4 best plus the most historic ice storm (in this area, 01-27-2009) of a century and then the weekly blitz that was 2013-14 to end that era, I guess it became pretty hard to remember that a 3" snow here was still pretty special when I was a kid. Also that an 8"+ winter with 2 or more mid to major events rolled in was considered one we'd remember for a long time.

What a crazy decade of winters we just walked out of if you think about it. 

In like a lion in 2010, out like a lamb in 2019.

Here's to winter coming back over the next 2 years.

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3 hours ago, JoMo said:

So, marginal snow event coming up in a few days? 12z Euro somewhat impressive. 

All the models seem to be on board. I am hesitant for now. We shall see. Timing is right for accumulation though. 

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3 hours ago, JoMo said:

So, marginal snow event coming up in a few days? 12z Euro somewhat impressive. 

Significant temp difference between the GFS and NAM (no surprise there). 
 

The NWS discussions are considerably different as well.   Tulsa way more bullish then OKC, Springfield, and Little Rock.  

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NWS Tulsa:

Now to the big challenge of this forecast. For several days,
models have brought a strong wave across the Plains just to our
south Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected on the
system`s north side, that has never been in question. What has
been in question was the amount of cold air the system would have
to work with. Today`s runs, especially the NAM which tends to
handle low level cold air better, have trended colder behind the
back door front that will be working its way into the region late
Monday into Tuesday. As such, this forecast will trend colder at
the surface and will have more snow accumulation across NE OK and
NW AR. Raw model snow accumulation forecasts from the NAM and
ECMWF suggest that advisory level snow accumulation is possible
anywhere north of I-40 Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main
question will be the marginal temps near the ground. If it`s a
rain/snow mix that would greatly cut the accumulation potential.
There is also light icing potential in the terrain of NW AR.
Precipitation should come to an end by Wednesday morning as the
system moves off to the east. Bottom line, travel impacts from
winter weather are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly north
of I-40.

 

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57 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Significant temp difference between the GFS and NAM (no surprise there). 
 

The NWS discussions are considerably different as well.   Tulsa way more bullish then OKC, Springfield, and Little Rock.  

Have noticed Cramer (SGF) has way underplayed all winter events recently. Don't know if he does that consistently or just hasn't liked the looks of these systems. I know there are some SPC and NHC forecasters who tend to be more conservative than others. He may be one of those in the local SGF office. I really haven't paid that close of attention to know for sure. 

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19 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

NAM keeps trending a few degrees warmer.  Most of us were right on the edge in earlier runs.  0z didn’t trend in our favor.  

This one is going nowhere for us I'm afraid.   We can't even get one to sneak up on us with short notice and work out.  They all trend weaker,  warmer. 

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The GFS not being on board should be a huge red flag. It has been great with systems around here recently. 

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3 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Once again.....looking like Tulsa and NW AR barely miss out on one. going to be 34 degrees and heavy rain, and that'll just piss me right off lol.

Doesn't shock me again, thats how everything has been here for goodness knows how long. 33 and rain lol, It never fails.

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I'm just gonna accept that whatever real snow (3+ inches) we get won't be expected. Expectations stay low so the depression doesn't kick in, lol!

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I really dont know why I pay attention to winter weather anymore. Severe weather around here is way more interesting than it used to be, and winter weather is a lot less interesting than it used to be. 

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5 hours ago, ouamber said:

I'm just gonna accept that whatever real snow (3+ inches) we get won't be expected. Expectations stay low so the depression doesn't kick in, lol!

Its gotten old now with these winters lol, I'm so down about it but just have to accept it for what it is anymore ya know. I'm shocked we get to keep a winter discussion forum on here haha. Get ready, they are calling for mid 60's next week!!

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16 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Notice there was an advisory sitting there in my face but now its gone lol, smart move. Just another cold rain. Actually got a bit warmer here than anticipated

Did you see that on the NWS home page? If so, its a glitch. As far as I know, there was never an advisory for your area. 

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I did see something earlier this morning in regards to an advisory in that area. Liberal, Ks. has picked up near 15 inches of snow from reports. 

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