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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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5 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said:

This pattern change needs to get here already. I'm growing tired of this boring tranquil weather.

1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. 

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. 

Id be in for that, of course i'm busy as hell but that would be cool.

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Id be in for that, of course i'm busy as hell but that would be cool.

I too would be interested, but my wife's 8 months pregnant so I'd need a miracle to occur to be able to get away.

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1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. 

I'm definitely down, but where is the question? I'm 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 from KBUF. How do you pick a location? Either way I'm down.

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12 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I'm definitely down, but where is the question? I'm 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 from KBUF. How do you pick a location? Either way I'm down.

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We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew.

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We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew.

Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL?

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Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL?

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My bad Westerly, I quoted you and was asking Delta the question, lol.

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41 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL?

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Probably just a get together but if it just so happens that there’s a chaseable event going on at the same time we could always try and meet there or something. Also what would be a good time frame for it? December or would after the holidays be better for everyone? 

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11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Probably just a get together but if it just so happens that there’s a chaseable event going on at the same time we could always try and meet there or something. Also what would be a good time frame for it? December or would after the holidays be better for everyone? 

Id say after the holidays 

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CIPS Runs from this morning (based off GEFS, which is in REMARKABLE agreement with EPS). Mean snowfall plots for late next week/weekend and early the following week (picked mean rather than the 90th percentile plot which was maxing out the scale for both lakes!). So, after the front moves through next Tue/Wed, be ready for the cold and for the slightly-warmer-than-normal-lakes to be firing for a week or more!

AVGSN72_gefsF168.pngAVGSN72_gefsF312.png

 

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew.

Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far).  Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up.   Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? 

Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea.  I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather.  It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce.   

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34 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far).  Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up.   Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? 

Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea.  I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather.  It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce.   

My bad, Exit 45 is about 1:20 minutes so KROC, the city would be an additional 20 minutes or so. right? So yeah, about 1:40 minutes so that sounds better as I'm 30 miles North of the city. My previous residence was closer, lol, I am however about 45 minutes to the Waterloo outlets.

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40 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far).  Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up.   Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? 

Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea.  I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather.  It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce.   

Im also kool with KROC being that its pretty much dead center between KBUF and KSYR. Well not dead center, but close!.

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Just glancing at the 12Z GFS.  Still way out there, but lake effect late next week looks like it could be disrupted by a coastal storm.  Wouldn't that be perfect...Boston gets a foot of snow and we get wind shear.  Silly to look at details this far out, and things really look to explode over the lower lakes as we push through next weekend.  But goes to show lots of scenarios on the table between synoptic systems and anticipated lake effect.  Can't wait...

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If blank, model image not available

Nothing better than cold and dry conditions, lol.  Although KBUF does have a few chances as its showing at least 10" for the City.  Yeah its 10 days out,I know but I wanna see how it changes as I'm archiving this outbreak, but i'm really just looking at the overall pattern. For the immediate CNY area, it looks absolutely horrific, but thankfully, it'll change definitively!  if i'm not allowed to post these lemme know and I'll stop immediately!

'

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Been reading here quietly the last few days. Really appreciate the comments about chasing LES in the Tug region. Definitely have to respect it because it can be life threatening if you don't treat all types of extreme wx seriously. If I ever did chase LES, I'd want to get to my hotel and hunker down before the first flakes fall. I'd ideally be packed with enough supplies to not need to drive until after the event ends. That probably creates some bust potential if I am a few miles off. 

Thinking it might be best to get a chase or two in more populated areas first before trying Tug.

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53 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If blank, model image not available

Nothing better than cold and dry conditions, lol.  Although KBUF does have a few chances as its showing at least 10" for the City.  Yeah its 10 days out,I know but I wanna see how it changes as I'm archiving this outbreak, but i'm really just looking at the overall pattern. For the immediate CNY area, it looks absolutely horrific, but thankfully, it'll change definitively!  if i'm not allowed to post these lemme know and I'll stop immediately!

'

If it's a big event it'll be north of us up in Appalachia North, where no one lives. Almost always is. So, hoping for some transient LES conditions to develop, else it's just cold and dry here. Of course, looking at global models a week or two out for specific lake snow expectations is a fool's game. All we can expect at this point is that it looks to get cold for a while (it will be December after all) and Joe Bastardi will be aggressively mongering...

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Not really worried. Models look great. Lots of cold air with weak lows and shortwaves traveling along the base of the trough. I am a little worried about shear though, and possibly dry air depending on path of those waves. Those things we will have no idea on for 3-4 days at least. 

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On 11/29/2017 at 6:09 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said:

You guys are seriously looking at wind direction from 222hrs out? Some forecasters have a difficult time dealing with wind fluctuations from 24hrs out, and you guys are looking at a surface map, 9 days from now, smh.

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It's like playing a dangerous Russian roulette game lol.

 

ee3.jpg

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9 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

It's like playing a dangerous Russian roulette game lol.

 

ee3.jpg

Welcome back Ayuud. These forums are all about speculation. My favorite part of the storm is the time leading up to it. It's all a learning experience for me. I think someone will get feet and feet or snow in this pattern come for December. 

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The blocking is usually predictable with indices. The type of blocking we are seeing is conducive to migrating bands. But the weak low pressures/clippers will be riding along that trough axis. This gives me more confidence than usual for an extended period of lake effect snow. The details will be straightened out as we get closer. 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_36.png

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The end of GFS brings the actual PV to the great lakes. :o

gfs_T850_us_53.png

Damm man if that were to VERIFY, everybody in Erie county gets the fair share of LES!

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30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The blocking is usually predictable with indices. The type of blocking we are seeing is conducive to migrating bands. But the weak low pressures/clippers will be riding along that trough axis. This gives me more confidence than usual for an extended period of lake effect snow. The details will be straightened out as we get closer. 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_36.png

Climo also supports of winds being from WSW direction earlier in the season..

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1 hour ago, ayuud11 said:

Climo also supports of winds being from WSW direction earlier in the season..

The 18z GFS appears to be back to a series if clippers or waves around the parent LP just south of Hudson Bay. I, like Ayuud, believe the upcoming couple weeks will be very good to the majority of WNY with LES...im not going to squabble if southern Erie gets 40" while northern Erie gets 25"...all the same winter looks to be back!!!

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It's exciting that the Bills will be at home on the 10th.  I've always hoped a decent SW event could pummel the stadium during game time.  This might finally be the chance.  

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