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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

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Here above the frost line in Chester County we could go no lower than 37.0...however plenty of frost all around below me on the drive to school with my kids.

First morning in the 30's since back on May 8th when we hit 37.3. Will not get out of the 50's here today. We might touch 70 if we are lucky next weekend...

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Long range on the euro ens and GFS ens are showing signs for a cooler than average pattern emerging in the beginning of November. Looks good for troughing in the east with a big ridge in the west. Things continuing to look good for an early and fast start to winter.

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9 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Long range on the euro ens and GFS ens are showing signs for a cooler than average pattern emerging in the beginning of November. Looks good for troughing in the east with a big ridge in the west. Things continuing to look good for an early and fast start to winter.

We better hope so there are strong signals for a quick winter exit after January, and what happened to next weeks cold wave? I did some checking and a couple pepper plants were untouched by frost this week. Models right now verbatim the rest of the month indicate my first ever October not only without a freeze but with no frost!

 

 

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if the 12z gfs comes true for next tuesday, it could be a very interesting severe weather day. set up screams low topped squall line and has absolutely perfect timing with the front coming through. Great shear in place, far enough from the low to stay out of the rain too so there should be enough instability. Could be a decent wind event. Of course the euro is a good 100-150 west with the low placement and would be much different timing wise. Still something to at least watch. The long range on both models continue to look promising as well with a ton of cold air up in canada and the first real cold shot coming through in the Halloween time period. Could be the first freeze potential. height anomalies continue to indicate a -NAO and +PNA during this period. Hoping to write up my winter forecast on Sunday.

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A bit chillier this morning with the radiational cooling and had a low of 48 (vs yesterday morning's 51F).  Quick rebound allowed me to max out at 75F and noticed some high clouds streaming in this afternoon.  Soon as the sun set, the temp has been dropping quickly.  Currently partly cloudy and down to 64.

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Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

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