Hvward Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Lol GFS and its silly snow hole over Buncombe Co. Remember it tried so hard to resolve that during January's storm last year, and in the end it was wrong, of course. Downtown Asheville won't see as much as Hendersonville, but don't worry about that snow hole its showing. Poor GFS, Bless its heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hvward said: Lol GFS and its silly snow hole over Buncombe Co. Remember it tried so hard to resolve that during January's storm last year, and in the end it was wrong, of course. Downtown Asheville won't see as much as Hendersonville, but don't worry about that snow hole its showing. Poor GFS, Bless its heart. Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill. You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill. You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county! Tracker! What is your input bud? It's always a pleasure when you stop by. Yeah Haywood and the southern facing mountains cash in well with these set ups. This is one interesting setup to say the least. It's always good to set back and let things play out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yeah I really like this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Tracker! What is your input bud? It's always a pleasure when you stop by. Yeah Haywood and the southern facing mountains cash in well with these set ups. This is one interesting setup to say the least. It's always good to set back and let things play out either way. Hey hey! Yea I thought I would stop by, see what's happening around here with the first real snow event of the season. Tell you what, models seem to suggest a strung out low (rather than a classic condensed Miller A). This is what is limiting the NW side of the precip (and thus a sharp cut-off). I note that a NW trend to the frontogenesis seems to be in play (30 miles each run), so we aren't looking at major shifts at this point. Overall, northern mountains will do worse while southern and southwestern mountains will do a lot better. NAVGEM is as insistent in it's overly amped solution as the others have been with minimal amplification. Given that the energy is riding up an old boundary and the strung out nature of the system, I tend to lean away from the NAVGEM and more towards Euro/NAM blend. Why? Because even 2 days ago, both Euro and NAM had the same exact solution. Back in the day, this was known as the "EE Rule" (when the NAM was called the ETA model). In the southeast, when the ETA and Euro are in agreement (now NAM and Euro), you could take that solution to the bank. So, my inclination would be under an inch northern mountain, 1-2" central mountains (AVL), and 2-4" southwest and southern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Hey hey! Yea I thought I would stop by, see what's happening around here with the first real snow event of the season. Tell you what, models seem to suggest a strung out low (rather than a classic condensed Miller A). This is what is limiting the NW side of the precip (and thus a sharp cut-off). I note that a NW trend to the frontogenesis seems to be in play (30 miles each run), so we aren't looking at major shifts at this point. Overall, northern mountains will do worse while southern and southwestern mountains will do a lot better. NAVGEM is as insistent in it's overly amped solution as the others have been with minimal amplification. Given that the energy is riding up an old boundary and the strung out nature of the system, I tend to lean away from the NAVGEM and more towards Euro/NAM blend. Why? Because even 2 days ago, both Euro and NAM had the same exact solution. Back in the day, this was known as the "EE Rule" (when the NAM was called the ETA model). In the southeast, when the ETA and Euro are in agreement (now NAM and Euro), you could take that solution to the bank. So, my inclination would be under an inch northern mountain, 1-2" central mountains (AVL), and 2-4" southwest and southern mountains. Nice setup bro! I love to read what you are putting down. This could not come at a better time right before Christmas either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill. You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county!What's up HT?! Yeah you are right about that, but it tends to really over emphasize it. New Euro snowfall map gives most of Buncombe 3"+. This one could be interesting! Looking forward to it in Candler! I'll also be at a house I am building on a Christmas tree farm in Canton tomorrow AM so might have some festive views to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Even take half of what Euro is showing and im happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainforrest said: Yeah I really like this setup. This is prime for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Even take half of what Euro is showing and im happy You on the snow train now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: You on the snow train now? Haha still skeptical but admit that Im a Euro hugger so I feel a little better about it. Wish the RGEM and Canadian would load... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Haha still skeptical but admit that Im a Euro hugger so I feel a little better about it. Wish the RGEM and Canadian would load... Euro was atrocious with this event. Ukmet is the king. Looks like 2-4 is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Euro was atrocious with this event. Ukmet is the king. Looks like 2-4 is a good call right now. I agree and Im not afraid to admit that the EURO has been struggling last few winters.. Its still the best if you look at verification scores but not like it used to be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Euro was atrocious with this event. Ukmet is the king. Looks like 2-4 is a good call right now. Yeah no kidding. GFS was trash too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah no kidding. GFS was trash too. Yea, Euro was bad but GFS was worse lol what else is new.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Yea, Euro was bad but GFS was worse lol what else is new.. Yep I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainforrest said: Yeah I really like this setup. 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Posted my call map a bit ago. Might have to tweak it later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I’ll take a few inches. Still feeling greedy and hoping for a slight shift NW to put me firmly in the 4-6 ball park. I’m curious to see when/if Blacksburg will throw at least the NC mtn counties under some sort of advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, griteater said: 3-6 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’ll take a few inches. Still feeling greedy and hoping for a slight shift NW to put me firmly in the 4-6 ball park. I’m curious to see when/if Blacksburg will throw at least the NC mtn counties under some sort of advisory. I'm thinking we'll see another shift NW on the 18z and 00z models and we'll be looking pretty for a solid 2-4 or 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 With the increase in the 12z models I'm wondering if gsp will go with a winter storm warning instead of an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: With the increase in the 12z models I'm wondering if gsp will go with a winter storm warning instead of an advisory. I was thinking the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nam looking much better for us mountains folks. Slower and farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks like us northern mountain folk still need a lot more help. Snow for 9 hours give or take then again Saturday morning but it all appears to be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Looks like us northern mountain folk still need a lot more help. Snow for 9 hours give or take then again Saturday morning but it all appears to be light. I wouldn't say a lot. GFS and Euro look better for us. And the nam is still coming farther NW each run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nam is a weenie run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: I wouldn't say a lot. GFS and Euro look better for us. And the nam is still coming farther NW each run today If it's any similar to the January storm, the trajectory of moisture will have the southern mountains eat all the precip up by the time it makes it this far north, and without help of moisture pushing east to west, it'll be essentially a dry slot. That's exactly what happened last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Never camped in the snow, but might get my kid out of school early tomorrow and head to south mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: If it's any similar to the January storm, the trajectory of moisture will have the southern mountains eat all the precip up by the time it makes it this far north, and without help of moisture pushing east to west, it'll be essentially a dry slot. That's exactly what happened last January. That I am not 100% on would love for Met1985 or someone else who knows better than I do to tell me their thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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