Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[eaglesin2011]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/035210.shtml?cone#contents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tatl.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/tropical.html

[KPITSnow]

I'm fairly confused as to what a lot of people are looking at. NHC still has the story at 155 mph, and while the tops have warmed he core has not collapsed. 

 

She is now moving off the cuba coast, and the eye is back over open water. This is REALLY bad for Florida.

[Mountain_Patch]

GFS has it hitting roughly big pine key at 919 mb at hr 33 so its still expecting major significant deepening and making landfall at 909 in naples roughly. jesus. It's not giving anything in terms of how strong it plans on this hurricane to be overdone or not it's quite significant what it expects to happen in the straits 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said:

GFS has it hitting roughly big pine key at 919 mb at hr 33 so its still expecting major significant deepening and making landfall at 909 in naples roughly. jesus.

Ignore the intensity on the GFS. The GFS has been off its rocker with that. It's a known bias since the upgrade. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ignore the intensity on the GFS. The GFS has been off its rocker with that. It's a known bias since the upgrade. 

I also think it's pretty special the 00z HMON took central pressure from 932 to 910 in 3 hours. Pretty sure it missed the mark on that one. 

Probably more importantly it has pressures rising through 12-15z today, then a steady deepening towards landfall tonight.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF simulated IR products show that Irma has a just under 24 hour window between emerging off of Cuba and making landfall in Florida to re-consolidate its inner core and strengthen. While it has warm water, shear and dry air will be increasing, and it remains to be seen how much the next 18 hours over land will affect the storm. It's looking in pretty rough shape attm IMO, I'm a little more skeptical than most that this takes right back off near Key West, though I could be wrong. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/775-w-267-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170911-0300z.html

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

You really gonna nitpick 33 hours out? If there was a point where the GFS is within 15% accurate this should be it. We're within 48 hours, and it's hard to believe it's going to be massively overdone. You know that the window for it going crazy is closing. 

We've gone through this multiple times with Harvey too. I'm talking face value. See oceanst's post too. The HMON is also too aggressive. However, that does not mean the "trend" or behavior of the model showing intensification should be ignored. I'm specifically talking the face value of it.

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We've gone through this multiple times with Harvey too. I'm talking face value. See oceanst's post too. The HMON is also too aggressive. However, that does not mean the "trend" or bahavior of the model showing intensification should be ignored. I'm specifically talking the face value of it.

at the same time it has Irma at 919 it has Jose at 969.

[forecasterjack]

Shear and dry air both ramp up tomorrow. With a damaged inner core, I have doubts about Irma's ability to seamlessly fend these off as she did in the NE Caribbean 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/wind-300mb/20170910-1200z.html

[CoastalWx]

Well no surprise it looked ragged earlier as it interacted with land. However, she looks a little better now as the eye tries to clear. It should scrape the coastline through the day. The big question is what happens tonight and tomorrow. There is a narrow window where it really could go to town, before shear impinges on it. Sometimes they do rapidly intensify...sometimes they just hold their own and can't quite get going. 

[forecasterjack]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well no surprise it looked ragged earlier as it interacted with land. However, she looks a little better now as the eye tries to clear. It should scrape the coastline through the day. The big question is what happens tonight and tomorrow. There is a narrow window where it really could go to town, before shear impinges on it. Sometimes they do rapidly intensify...sometimes they just hold their own and can't quite get going. 

Agreed on all counts here. Kinda worried that the storm wobbles north at some point today, as storms sometimes do, and emerges over water earlier than expected. Alternately she could wobble south and end up putting the whole inner core over land. 30 miles this way or that way will make a huge difference today!

[Taylorsweather]

Irma is currently separating itself from Cuba a little as the eye wall is now fully over water as shown on Havana radar.  In about 5 hours, Irma will be in the area where Cuba starts to flatten west, and as Irma gains latitude, the influence of Cuba will wane.  So I suspect any intensification will hold off til afternoon at the earliest, and if she manages to stay offshore until then, who knows what she looks like tomorrow.

 

Havana radar:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/cu/havana/122438/satellite/122438

[forecasterjack]

0Z EPS shifted west once again. Might be a good thing for FL, let the shear and dry air weaken the system a bit over water before it hits land. Compare the last 4 EPS runs via the menus to the left of the image: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090900-240-irma.html of course, it's all free on weather.us  

[Mountain_Patch]

24 hours for 115-173 over the exact same current and warmer temps than Rita.

 

https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/h2005_rita.html

[dan11295]

Seems like Irma will have a very narrow window to reintensify after it gets off the coast of Cuba. After that point it seems like it will level off and quite possibly start to weaken before it reaches the west coast of Florida, though I suspect the NHC didn't want to imply weakening prior to landfall.

[Taylorsweather]

3 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

0Z EPS shifted west once again. Might be a good thing for FL, let the shear and dry air weaken the system a bit over water before it hits land. Compare the last 4 EPS runs via the menus to the left of the image: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090900-240-irma.html of course, it's all free on weather.us  

But will it verify with that much interaction with Cuba?  Irma seems to be on the very right side of that guidance at this time, and may not actually make landfall in Cuba at all.  I could be wrong, but I still feel a future Cuba landfall (not counting barrier islands) is in some doubt.

[forecasterjack]

Just now, Taylorsweather said:

But will it verify with that much interaction with Cuba?  Irma seems to be on the very right side of that guidance at this time, and may not actually make landfall in Cuba at all.  I could be wrong, but I still feel a future Cuba landfall (not counting barrier islands) is in some doubt.

I doubt the westernmost members will verify (not forecasting the eye to make it all the way to the S coast of Cuba before heading to the FL Panhandle), but even a change in landfall from Naples to Tampa is a big deal. Will all come down to last minute wobbles impossible to anticipate at this time. A wobble 10 miles to the east means a landfall point dozens of miles to the south. We'll see how it goes. Maybe more time over water will strengthen the system even with shear and dry air.

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

But will it verify with that much interaction with Cuba?  Irma seems to be on the very right side of that guidance at this time, and may not actually make landfall in Cuba at all.  I could be wrong, but I still feel a future Cuba landfall (not counting barrier islands) is in some doubt.

It won't the NHC forecast is pulling away from cuba faster and further than the GFS it just gives an example of just how good the conditions are for it to bounce back. I'll be the naysayer here and just argue expect cat 5 again.

[CoastalWx]

Here is what I mean. Shear slowly increases from here on out, but SSTs rise and mid level RH is fine for about 36-48 hrs out. 

 

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF forecasts hurricane force wind gusts all the way up into the Atlanta-Asheville region. Would be a devastating blow to the power grid if it verified. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/800-w-320-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170912-0600z.html

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is what I mean. Shear slowly increases from here on out, but SSTs rise and mid level RH is fine for about 36-48 hrs out. 

 

Even with that level of shear the GFS thinks it'll hit 909. Think about that. Overdone or not it says a lot.

[Taylorsweather]

1 minute ago, forecasterjack said:

I doubt the westernmost members will verify (not forecasting the eye to make it all the way to the S coast of Cuba before heading to the FL Panhandle), but even a change in landfall from Naples to Tampa is a big deal. Will all come down to last minute wobbles impossible to anticipate at this time. A wobble 10 miles to the east means a landfall point dozens of miles to the south. We'll see how it goes. Maybe more time over water will strengthen the system even with shear and dry air.

As Irma approaches the SWFL coast, I wonder if it'll pull a Charley and make a hard right into the coastline before models anticipate due to frictional effects of land.

[forecasterjack]

Just now, Taylorsweather said:

As Irma approaches the SWFL coast, I wonder if it'll pull a Charley and make a hard right into the coastline before models anticipate due to frictional effects of land.

I wonder that too! I wondered about that with Cuba and Hispaniola as well, though it doesn't seem to have the pull I thought it might, at least with those islands. Maybe FL will be different in some way. 

[psv88]

Core should be completely over water for the next hour. On her current path, Irma never makes landfall on Cuba proper, most of the European solutions are too far south. As it is, the euro had her making landfall further south in its prior runs. A few wobbles north and Irma is back in business. Next 2-3 hours are key. 

[Taylorsweather]

1 minute ago, forecasterjack said:

I wonder that too! I wondered about that with Cuba and Hispaniola as well, though it doesn't seem to have the pull I thought it might, at least with those islands. Maybe FL will be different in some way. 

I was under the opinion that the land had to be on the right for that effect.  Maybe a met can chime in on that.

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

I was under the opinion that the land had to be on the right for that effect.  Maybe a met can chime in on that.

Coriolis effect

[Master of Disaster]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well at the time, it looked to be near MIA. That's just the uncertainty when you are 3-5 days out.  That's the problem....it's almost a no win situation. People will complain no matter what, but remember they evacuate for a reason....you think the officials are just doing it for fun?

No longer managing emergencies. We manage unrealistic expectations now. Been that way since Katrina.

[Papa Joe]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

here's a link to the long range miami radar loop for when irma gets into range

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=01100000&loop=yes

Here's the NWS Doppler Radar. You can zoom and loop to the Miami area and it includes the circulation over Cuba

http://www.weather.gov/crh/radar

[Raine1212]

Question, my area is slightly out of the cone now, but looks like we are still in the RFQ, the media hype is saying it will explode over land and could push hurricane force winds into Augusta. Are you guys seeing that? Not sure I can trust the media hype on this. Thanks

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Raine1212 said:

Question, my area is slightly out of the cone now, but looks like we are still in the RFQ, the media hype is saying it will explode over land and could push hurricane force winds into Augusta. Are you guys seeing that? Not sure I can trust the media hype on this. Thanks

Just listen to NWS Columbia/Atlanta and you'll be fine.