Marmot Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hurricane models seeing the loop now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png Looks like 9 models are looping Jose back after 41N , as early as 96hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 At 11 pm, Jose remained on a track that would likely result in its remaining off shore. Its 11 pm position was 29.2°N 71.8°W. The ECMWF ensembles represent perhaps the best assessment of Jose’s risk of landfall. The implied probability of landfall shown on the EPS falls between the low probability on the GEFS and modest probability suggested by historic climatology. Thus far, climatology has proved to be a stabilizing element. It has helped prevent ideas from swinging fairly dramatically from one solution to another during the period of greatest uncertainty concerning Jose’s future track. At no time has historic climatology suggested a 50% or greater probability of U.S. landfall. In addition, it consistently argued that no landfall altogether was somewhat more likely than any landfall (U.S. or Canadian). Nevertheless, some uncertainty persists. There remains a possibility that Jose will experience another anti-cyclonic loop. Forecast rainfall amounts are as follows (9/16 12z ECMWF): Atlantic City: 0.10” Boston: 1.44” Bridgeport: 0.62” Hartford: 0.83” Islip: 0.82” Nantucket: 4.03” New York City: …JFK: 0.50” …LGA:0.39” …NYC: 0.34” Newark: 0.31” Plymouth: 2.51” Portland: 0.35” Providence: 1.88” Westhampton: 1.15” White Plains: 0.34” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nam shifted west Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 00z GFS coming in west of last few runs ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose and Maria are gonna dance on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose needs to go lol, No dancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose chased after Irma... and now is trying to go after Maria. :-/ ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 CMC is west for Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Ukie slams into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Some major developments unfolding, significant west shift by Euro and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro nice movement towards the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro shifted west and now looks like the Ukie A lot of precip for NYC and coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Every model has shifted west tonight but the Euro and Ukie really shifted west. Curious to see if the hurricane models start shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Euro nailed Joaquin when others wanted to send it back towards the coast. On satellite there's been a significant westward expansion, Ukie and Euro could be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro nailed Joaquin when others wanted to send it back towards the coast. On satellite there's been a significant westward expansion, Ukie and Euro could be on to something. NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. 976 is a dying noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. Euro was much tighter with Jose's loop and much weaker than the GFS. Wonder what downstream implications that has for Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 976 is a dying noreaster? The shear is brutal. I cannot see this being any worse than a noreaster type event. Especially on the west side. I think NHC is going to start playing up the weakening on the 5am and 11am discussions to cover themselves if the track shifts west. I don't see them making any major track adjustment for another 24-30 hours unless the HURR models move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Very impressive wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block. Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I know models have been back and forth for days so I'd need to see the Euro either maintain that track or shift even further west for it to be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I know models have been back and forth for days so I'd need to see the Euro either maintain that track or shift even further west for it to be legit. A lot of blocking on the Euro and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block. Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL. That ridge filling in brings Maria in NC on a Fran track as well. HUGE implications on the future impacts Maria might have depending on what Jose does in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Gfs and Nam are slightly more west on the 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro and Ukmet runs from last night were def well west of the NHC's cone. The EPS had a notable shift west as well, but the mean still indicates a graze with minimal TS impacts for even eastern LI and SE MA. I was originally thinking the NHC would have already adjusted their cone to the west based on last night's runs but I think they were right to stay put for now based on the number of GEFS and EPS members that are currently within their forecast cone. Right now more caution is warranted than this time yesterday, but forecasting wise, per the NHC it's still a hold/ "wait and see". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Euro and Ukmet runs from last night were def well west of the NHC's cone. The EPS had a notable shift west as well, but the mean still indicates a graze with minimal TS impacts for even eastern LI and SE MA. I was originally thinking the NHC would have already adjusted their cone to the west based on last night's runs but I think they were right to stay put for now based on the number of GEFS and EPS members that are currently within their forecast cone. Right now more caution is warranted than this time yesterday, but forecasting wise, per the NHC it's still a hold/ "wait and see". I think they are assuming an overcorrection right now. I think the closest this gets is reaching 41N/71W then turning. That's close enough NYC and LI probably get 25-35mph winds and a rainy day. Move that 50-60 miles east though and it's mostly a miss. I think they're also keeping this too strong. I guess this may be a 60mph system in 72 hours but if it is you're probably talking about a 15 mile area on the east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Euro may turn out to be correct on the loop back west as the EPS mean and the GFS have it now. This seems plausible with such strong blocking in place. While the storm will weaken greatly coming back over the cooler waters, it may have some influence on the eventual track of Maria. Regarding the cooler waters, we really need to see how this loop plays out. As it is now, that loop occurs awfully close to the Gulf Stream. Verbatim, Jose quickly weakens, I agree. But should the loop happen 50-100 miles further south, he can potentially maintain strength as a TS or minimal Hurricane, for a while longer. And then we have to see where he's headed next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I wouldn't even guess right now how Jose may impact Maria. It sure does seem though the more east it hooks and especially the more south of a latitude it hooks the more likely it would stay strong enough to boot Maria out. If it comes way more west or north and or goes into loops it'll likely crap out enough to not be a big influence and Maria may head into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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