Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The GFS insane low pressures for Irma broke the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The Euro data feed is now just a bunch of DIV0 errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 ECMWF FTP site only has free files to 72 right now. Last update was over 20 minutes ago. The problem is with ECMWF's systems, not any of the map sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This always happens with big storms, snow hurricanes etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 So, in events such as this is the run salvageable or is it inaccessible typically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think the ECMWF senses all of the American weenies up ... I think it's telling us to go to sleep! That's what I'm about to do, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 up to 96 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Stronger and south compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Treckasec said: I think the ECMWF senses all of the American weenies up ... I think it's telling us to go to sleep! That's what I'm about to do, haha Are you asleep? Wake up! Hour 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Tad south, little faster at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Thinking more and more that this is a Florida storm with every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It's looking like a Cuba storm more than anything atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 144, almost a mirror image location wise with GFS. Over Cuba at 951mb. 168 jogs NE, 934 off the Miami coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 168, a little east of Florida but clipping the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Cuts due North at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Wow, just when you thought the GFS was out on vacation, the ECMWF nods in rough agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 192 - Moving NNE about 100 miles East of Jacksonville at 931mb. Probably going to hit North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks to be on a course for the Carolinas at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 192 - Moving NNE about 100 miles East of Jacksonville at 931mb. Probably going to hit North Carolina. It would hit just south of myrtle beach at that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just west of Wilmington, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 looks like landfall on the S and N Carolina border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 216 it's hooked left and is close to RDU. So it probably did come onshore around Myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hour 216 landfall, due to limited frames I will guess it likely hit at North Myrtle Beach. 982 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 LMAO LF where the GFS was 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That's a clean sweep of S/W jogs from the models this evening. Will it keep going? If it runs over much more of Cuba it may not recover to the extent shown. I really hope it stays out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, ncskywarn said: LMAO LF where the GFS was 24 hours ago. It's because of the system in the NE/ridge in canada both models are saying different things about what the outcome is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 just have to wait to see how strong that ridge is over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: LMAO LF where the GFS was 24 hours ago. Yep I even remember mentioning North Myrtle Beach earlier. I question whether this follows near the coast or heads west like the GFS. (Continuation) West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hi - I'm a first time poster but have lurked here for a while and enjoy learning from what folks post. I'm a geologist and one of my field sites is in the Turks and Caicos. We've been waiting for a hurricane to roll through for a long time to track changes on a low-lying island in the region and I'll probably head down there soon as it seems Irma will hit the region pretty hard. I'm wondering if the major models make any predictions of storm surge that I could access beforehand, or if there is another way for me to ascertain this information? I just need a loose estimate for the region in the coming days. Ike and Donna were both Category 4 and hit the Turks and Caicos hard. Typical surge was 9-12 feet in places. The carbonate and coral plateau and shape of the cays and inlets can help depending on angle of approach. I'd recommend visiting NOAA's site for their SLOSH model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php As for the global forecast, tropical and intensity models, they are purely atmospheric pressure and precip based and do not simulate surge. However, if Irma is a large Cat 3 or 4 hurricane by the time it would impact the Turks and Caicos, you can probably expect something similar to Ike and Donna if it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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