Amped Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 7:32 PM, Windspeed said: We did have Major Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean late in the 2016 eason and we may still get development in the W. Caribbean before the 2017 season is over. We could have had development sooner than later the past week had the surface trough been further east off of Colombia and more confined over the sea versus elongated over Nicaragua to El Salvador. But it is what it is.. Interestingly, cyclogenesis may occur just off the coast of Costa Rica. May have to dust the cobwebs off the EPAC thread. Well it's dead now on the Euro, low is too elongated to even be declared a TS. But it keeps hopes alive. Time to start cheering on the central Atlantic cutoff low. We had one become a Hurricane in January 2016 so November definitely not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: Time to start cheering on the central Atlantic cutoff low. time to take away your T card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Up to 80% as of 2PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Up to 80% as of 2PM EDT.12z GFS tries to get this up to strong TS intensity by the time it reaches the Bahamas before it gets sheared off and the MLC gets decapitated. All the energy transfers to the strong baroclinic coastal low that hammers New England. I honestly have no idea how this will evolve but I think a hurricane is too much of a long shot. We would need to see a tight vortex forming in rapid fashion. The surface low is still rather broad. It may very well become a named TS but I don't think it will be strong enough to break the record. It will be interesting to watch this feature transition or "hand off" to the coastal baroclinic bomb I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 ^With regards to the resulting coastal baroclinic bomb, though obviously not a tropical entity at that time, the 12z ECMWF does simulate high winds. Might be overdone somewhat, but either way, looks like a fun day up on the Mt. Washington observation deck! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Looks like this will go straight to TS status when classified:DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center.The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Don't know whats going on with the GFS init Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Tropical Depression #19 has formed out in the Central Atlantic and is forecasted to become a tropical storm late tonight. It could threaten Northern Ireland or Scotland this weekend as a powerful extra tropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Rina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Kind of a strange ending. La Nina is kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 NCDC's estimates for the three hurricanes' damage totals are out: Harvey- $125 billion (#2 behind Katrina) Maria- $90 billion (#3) Irma- $50 billion (#5 behind Sandy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, gymengineer said: NCDC's estimates for the three hurricanes' damage totals are out: Harvey- $125 billion (#2 behind Katrina) Maria- $90 billion (#3) Irma- $50 billion (#5 behind Sandy) Harvey is ahead of Katrina 125bn vs 108bn. This makes it the costliest tropical cyclone on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Harvey is ahead of Katrina 125bn vs 108bn. This makes it the costliest tropical cyclone on record. The NCDC lists Katrina's damage as $161.3 billion (Consumer Price Index adjusted): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2017 Even unadjusted for CPI, they have Katrina's damage as $125 billion, not $108 billion. Their estimates don't necessarily match the NHC's estimates, and haven't in the past either.They also specifically mentioned Harvey being #2 in the press release: "Hurricane Harvey had total costs of $125 billion, second only to Hurricane Katrina in the 38-year period of record for billion-dollar disasters. Hurricanes Maria and Irma had total costs of $90 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Hurricane Maria now ranks as the third costliest weather and climate disaster on record for the nation and Irma ranks as the fifth costliest." https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201712 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: The NCDC lists Katrina's damage as $161.3 billion (Consumer Price Index adjusted): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2017 Even unadjusted for CPI, they have Katrina's damage as $125 billion, not $108 billion. Their estimates don't necessarily match the NHC's estimates, and haven't in the past either.They also specifically mentioned Harvey being #2 in the press release: "Hurricane Harvey had total costs of $125 billion, second only to Hurricane Katrina in the 38-year period of record for billion-dollar disasters. Hurricanes Maria and Irma had total costs of $90 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Hurricane Maria now ranks as the third costliest weather and climate disaster on record for the nation and Irma ranks as the fifth costliest." https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201712 I didn't know that. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf So, now, the NHC and NCDC numbers match. Notice that the NHC has adjusted Katrina's not-accounting-for-inflation total up to $125 billion. Maria's damage total is mind-boggling considering the total land area it impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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