Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: 14z HRRR max updraft helicity swath through Tolland County. Let's hope for a roof ripper. Please please make it happen . We plead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 I think much of CT is going to be cooked for severe potential except outside of the coast. Also, despite very high CAPE Ncape values only 0.1 so Cape is very skinny...PWATS up around 1.8' so yeah flooding is def going to be a concern. What might be a tad interesting, however, is storm motion may be somewhere inbetween of being parallel and perdendicular to the mean flow (like at a 45 degree angle. Wonder if that could locally enhance llvl shear a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think much of CT is going to be cooked for severe potential except outside of the coast. Also, despite very high CAPE Ncape values only 0.1 so Cape is very skinny...PWATS up around 1.8' so yeah flooding is def going to be a concern. What might be a tad interesting, however, is storm motion may be somewhere inbetween of being parallel and perdendicular to the mean flow (like at a 45 degree angle. Wonder if that could locally enhance llvl shear a bit? Sure go against SPC and more importantly what all the good mets here are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Sure go against SPC and more importantly what all the good mets here are saying The boundary is already pushing through northeastern CT and continues to drift SW at a decent clip. The main energy is still back well off to the west. It is advancing east at a decent clip but the SW progression of the BDCF is exceeding the eastward progression of the energy. Southern CT is still in the game but the northern half I think is cooked. I suppose it is possible that a rouge cell could ride right along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Pretty cool watching the front sag south on GOES16 vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 THunder in Weha!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 the BD front is gathering momentum at this hour. We've have an acceleration of the NE flowing wind field up here over the last hour ( near ORH) and ORH's temp has also slipped below 60. KCEF is just over to 080 at 13 kts and should see a temp shed take place pretty quick here - it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the BD front is gathering momentum at this hour. We've have an acceleration of the NE flowing wind field up here over the last hour ( near ORH) and ORH's temp has also slipped below 60. KCEF is just over to 080 at 13 kts and should see a temp shed take place pretty quick here - it's coming Storms starting to pop to the SW of ORH near Sturbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 knock knock knockin on kevin's dooooooor http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=D6554&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 When this pocket of enhanced 0-6km shear arrives there will be some explosive t'storms somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When this pocket of enhanced 0-6km shear arrives there will be some explosive t'storms somewhere it's a race... you may not make it... BD is moving fast right now... CEF just went from 88 to 75 in 10 minutes! ..there are some storms already firing though of the airmass variety. Also, the stuff along the S tier of NYS is sort of organized synoptically at this point and will probably come through as elevated junk over the mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's a race... you may not make it... BD is moving fast right now... CEF just went from 88 to 75 in 10 minutes! I'm hoping down in Waterbury area they will have a better chance lol. I'll be leaving WeHa in like 20-30 min. Luckily my seat is right next to a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm hoping down in Waterbury area they will have a better chance lol. I'll be leaving WeHa in like 20-30 min. Luckily my seat is right next to a window. yeah...ur pretty deep down there ...may not make it to you until 4 to 6 pm somewhere... but, before that happens there's a meso-beta scaled organized wave on the boundary that's propagating a pretty potent shield of mover elevated action about to move into western Ma/NW CT anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: The boundary is already pushing through northeastern CT and continues to drift SW at a decent clip. The main energy is still back well off to the west. It is advancing east at a decent clip but the SW progression of the BDCF is exceeding the eastward progression of the energy. Southern CT is still in the game but the northern half I think is cooked. I suppose it is possible that a rouge cell could ride right along the boundary. You want to be on the front or north of it a bit . There's going to be several TORs this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty cool watching the front sag south on GOES16 vis. Nah it's not moving I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You want to be on the front or north of it a bit . There's going to be several TORs this afternoon You don't want to be north of this front. You aren't going to be getting TORs at 60/59. If anything does spin up crossing the front it's going to be short lived because shear is not allowing them to ride the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: You don't want to be north of this front. You aren't going to be getting TORs at 60/59. If anything does spin up crossing the front it's going to be short lived because shear is not allowing them to ride the boundary. Not ORH north . I said just north of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not ORH north . I said just north of it And I'm saying the air mass anywhere north of this front is it conducive for torndoes. You ideally want a modified warm front with warm moist air separated from deeper moisture. Not this garbage. South of the front, have at it. Let your weenie flag fly. Just enough shear moving in for something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not ORH north . I said just north of it Looks like it's clearing you now. Congrats on nature's AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 WAtches are out. NAM ftl from yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Looks like it's roughly on a IJD to BDL line ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WAtches are out. NAM ftl from yesterday lol Ah... what? the NAM was spot on so far - what do you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 pea size hail at work with a 36 MPH gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Watching these storms move along the CT coast. Constant thunder and occasional CG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 79F and dropping at the STEM. Really happy for all of those summer school kids today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2017 Author Share Posted July 13, 2017 Some of the lowest probs you'll ever see in a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Watching these storms move along the CT coast. Constant thunder and occasional CG. Got lit the F up at work, bomb dropping thunder, awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 CEF's obs are welcome-to-hell hilarity ... 88/72 to 73/64 and drizzle ... like an hour too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 BOX needs to go severe on that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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