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Pittsburgh PA spring 2017

KPITSnow

By KPITSnow,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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meatwad

meatwad

Posted
Posted 
FXUS61 KPBZ 131257
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
857 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A sprawling winter storm is expected to bring accumulating snow
Monday night through early Wednesday with colder than average
conditions through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning updates made to adjust diurnal trends based on
the latest observations and hi res guidance.

Previous...
High clouds are already beginning to overspread of
the area well out in advance of a system pushing into the
Mississippi Valley this morning. Weak isentropic lift has
supported some radar returns across northeastern Ohio, but with
very dry air present, as indicative in the low dewpoints at the
surface, has resulted in much of this being virga. Expect dry
conditions to prevail across most of the region outside of Ohio
during the daylight hours with further support for those
conditions in southeasterly/downslope flow on the western side
of the terrain in PA/WV.

Deeper moisture looks to approach by later in the afternoon.
While temperatures may be fairly warm in a few spots at the
onset of precipitation, very wide dewpoint depressions in the
seem likely to make the wet bulb effect very pronounced. Thus,
while some spots may start with a sub-hour interlude of rain,
most areas look to quickly transition to snow shortly
thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong low pressure system will impact the area tonight through
Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories go into effect tonight.

A low pressure system currently in the Midwest will track through
the Ohio Valley while an upper-level trough deepens through the
Great Lakes. Snow developing along the mid-level front will
overspread western zones by this evening. During this time, a
secondary low will deepen over the Mid-Atlantic and begin tracking
up the coastline. As the coastal low deepens tonight, the
aforementioned mid-level front will move further east into the area
and pivot while an area of strong deformation intensifies near the
high terrain of WV, MD, and PA. This should lead to several hours of
heavy snowfall along our southeastern zones and light to moderate
snow elsewhere. Between these two synoptic features, models continue
to show an area of subsidence and drier air. This may initially
limit snow production through the middle of the forecast area,
including the Pittsburgh metro.

The coastal low bombs out near New England Tuesday spreading a
generous amount of snow to it`s west under the diving upper trough.
Snow production will be further enhanced by favorable upper jet
support. Still, some questions remain as to how far west this
moderate to heavy snow will fall, with the latest NAM/SREF/ECMWF
further west of the GFS/CMC. Strong northwest flow developing behind
the bombing low will transition snow from stratiform to showery,
enhanced by steepening lapse rates and a descending snow growth
zone. This will boost snow totals in the typically favored locations
of the high elevations, and north of I-80 that could last through
Wednesday. By the time all is said and done, some locations in the
mountains could see a foot or more of snow, with 8-12" expected
north of I-80. Winter Storm Warnings will remain untouched with this
update. Still many uncertainties exist pertaining to forecast
amounts in the lowland counties, especially with the early synoptic
portion of this event, but the persistent northwest flow behind the
low should at least lead to Advisory level snows. The only changes
to those headlines were a three-county expansion southwest.

Colder air arrives with the upper low swinging overhead
Wednesday morning. This will increase mixing heights and allow
stronger winds aloft to come to the surface. Winds will increase
through Wednesday, making the already unseasonably cold temperatures
feel even colder. Highs Wednesday will be close to average low
values.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unstable northwest flow looks to continue into Wednesday night
even as the moisture depth decreases. Due to the dendritic
growth layer crashing toward the ridgetops and substantial
instability below the lowered inversion heights, snow showers
will likely continue in the terrain through Wednesday night.
Pops and snow accumulations were increased for this period as
boundary layer moisture will likely continue to be wrung out
over the ridges as snow.

High pressure looks to settle into the Ohio Valley for the
remainder of the work week as temperatures start to modify.
Unsettled conditions look to return toward the weekend as a weak
system moves through the Great Lakes, however current ensemble
projections suggest deep troughing could develop to our east in
its wake. This would again result in a period of cold advection
going into next week. Fries

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High clouds have begun their spread into the area, although VFR
conditions will continue at all sites through the vast majority
of the day. After that, SN will spread quickly in from the west
with cig/vis dropping quickly as it does so this evening. IFR
conditions will be likely at all sites by the end of the period.
Fries

.OUTLOOK...
The restrictions should continue through at least Wednesday in
snow and snow showers.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ001.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for OHZ039>041-048.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for OHZ049-050.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for PAZ013.
     Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for PAZ014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for WVZ510>514.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for WVZ001>003-021-509.

&&

$$
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KPITSnow

KPITSnow

Posted
  • Author
Posted

We are toast. I'd rather just get nothing than 2 inches.

 

seriously, how many times can we get fringed on these big storms in the metro? If you go 100 miles south, east, or north in the last 6 year they have all had foot plus storms while we can't seem to get a single six inch storm. Hell, outside of the 2010, we dealt with the same thing the previous 10 years or so before that. 

 

It it really sucks to track these storms in Allegheny county.

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

We are toast. I'd rather just get nothing than 2 inches.

 

seriously, how many times can we get fringed on these big storms in the metro? If you go 100 miles south, east, or north in the last 6 year they have all had foot plus storms while we can't seem to get a single six inch storm. Hell, outside of the 2010, we dealt with the same thing the previous 10 years or so before that. 

 

It it really sucks to track these storms in Allegheny county.

Well said. :facepalm:

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KPITSnow

KPITSnow

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Well said. :facepalm:

Meanwhile, in the last 6 years, philly, D.C., NYC, and Boston have all probably had 5 storms that give them 12-24 inches of snow at least. 

 

Climo me says that shouldn't happen, and climo says that we shouldn't be going this long without storms that even have 6+ inches. 

Does anyone have that chart breaking down how often we see storms of six inches, a foot, 20 inches, etc?

 

edit: found it.

5+ twice a year

8-12 every two years

13-15 every 5 years

16+ every 15 years.

 

i think we haven't had an 8-12 event since 2010, and we have had one 13-15 event in this millennium? Am I wrong in saying that feb 5 2010 is our only snowfall of over a foot this millennium?

 

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Rd9108

Rd9108

Posted
Posted

XrXw0oo.png

We are due for something soon. Even though our area doesn't get huge snows a lot. The average  shows that every 2 ****ing years we get a 8-12 storm. Well I haven't seen that since 2010. 5 inches or year yeah we are lucky to get one of those it seems. Why do I put myself through this. Well atleast this won't affect work too much. 

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Rd9108

Rd9108

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Meanwhile, in the last 6 years, philly, D.C., NYC, and Boston have all probably had 5 storms that give them 12-24 inches of snow at least. 

 

Climo me says that shouldn't happen, and climo says that we shouldn't be going this long without storms that even have 6+ inches. 

Does anyone have that chart breaking down how often we see storms of six inches, a foot, 20 inches, etc?

 

edit: found it.

5+ twice a year

8-12 every two years

13-15 every 5 years

16+ every 15 years.

 

i think we haven't had an 8-12 event since 2010, and we have had one 13-15 event in this millennium? Am I wrong in saying that feb 5 2010 is our only snowfall of over a foot this millennium?

 

The presidents day storm in 2003? I think we got overall foot with that one. 

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Burghblizz

Burghblizz

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Meanwhile, in the last 6 years, philly, D.C., NYC, and Boston have all probably had 5 storms that give them 12-24 inches of snow at least. 

 

Climo me says that shouldn't happen, and climo says that we shouldn't be going this long without storms that even have 6+ inches. 

Does anyone have that chart breaking down how often we see storms of six inches, a foot, 20 inches, etc?

 

edit: found it.

5+ twice a year

8-12 every two years

13-15 every 5 years

16+ every 15 years.

 

i think we haven't had an 8-12 event since 2010, and we have had one 13-15 event in this millennium? Am I wrong in saying that feb 5 2010 is our only snowfall of over a foot this millennium?

 

We average 3-4 10"+ storms per decade. That has been incredibly lean since 2000 and even leaner since 2010.

The two officially over a foot since 2000 were 2003 and 2010. 

We've had several "forgotten" storms in the 8-10" range. Off the top of my head, dec '03, feb '07, second storm feb '10, feb '11, March '12. Those were nice storms. Then of course last January which a chunk of the area got 15"+

So it's not as bad of a drought as one might think.....but the 10"+ widespread storm has a 3 or 4 storm shortage this century. Makes it worse that some folks to the east are out performing climo the other way.

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Rd9108

Rd9108

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

We average 3-4 10"+ storms per decade. That has been incredibly lean since 2000. 

The two officially over a foot since 2000 were 2003 and 2010. 

We've had several "forgotten" storms in the 8-10" range. Off the top of my head, dec '03, feb '07, second storm feb '10, feb '11, March '12. Those were nice storms. Then of course last January which a chunk of the area got 15"+

So it's not as bad of a drought as one might think.....but the 10"+ widespread storm has a 3 or 4 storm shortage this century. Makes it worse that some folks to the east are out performing climo the other way.

The thing that annoys I think all of us is that we keep missing good storms by 50-100 miles. Last January we missed 12inches by 50 miles southeast. Then of course there's the last minute north west shift that buries Youngstown and gives us a mix. These 7 years have been putrid for tracking. Sure we got some over performing clippers and some decent 4-6 maybe 7 inch storms but we just keep missing the good ones by such little distance. 

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KPITSnow

KPITSnow

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Of course if this were Jan 1996, we would have have 4 10" + storms in the prior 37 months, with 2 of them a widespread 20"+

Because winter is only 3-4 months long, short sample sizes can look far different from long term avg. we are in a ****ty big storm sample right now compared to the amount of close calls

It's the close calls more than anything honestly that are irritating. That, and watching the I-95 corridor constantly getting mega storms every year, and sometimes 2 or 3 a year.

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CranberryWX

CranberryWX

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Of course if this were Jan 1996, we would have have 4 10" + storms in the prior 37 months, with 2 of them a widespread 20"+

Because winter is only 3-4 months long, short sample sizes can look far different from long term avg. we are in a ****ty big storm sample right now compared to the amount of close calls

I'm dating myself but January 1978 was the best I recall in this area.  Two big dumps in one week, one was a 16 incher and the other about 12.  They were fine grained snows with very little wind and if I remember right during the daytime hours.   We had over 30 inches that month.   The preceding year had bitter cold with numerous squalls, so two very good winters back to back.

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colonel717

colonel717

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, north pgh said:

This just showed up on my Facebook. Just drive to Cranberry. haha

http://butlercounty.news/2017/03/13/update-butler-county-receive-nearly-1-foot-snow/

I am looking to move to Franklin Park this year to be closer to wife's parents and clsoer to Butler Co...  Hopefully a better snow area if I dont jinx it...  They always seem to get an inch or 2 more than me every storm.

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colonel717

colonel717

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

I'm dating myself but January 1978 was the best I recall in this area.  Two big dumps in one week, one was a 16 incher and the other about 12.  They were fine grained snows with very little wind and if I remember right during the daytime hours.   We had over 30 inches that month.   The preceding year had bitter cold with numerous squalls, so two very good winters back to back.

I was a young kid back then but remember it was one of our rare blizzard warnings.  I don't recall getting that much snow that you got living in West Mifflin at the time. My totals could be off but I recall one we got about 9 inches and the other 7 during the week.  We were off school for 5 days

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

The NAM caved.  So close yet so far.. Thankfully I have the NCAA tourney to distract me.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_19.png

 

Figured it was only a matter of time, none of the other models really showed what it had, para nam was showing this several cycles ago, so probably a good thing this one is getting replaced. Sucks to miss another biggie by a relatively small distance, we get the dryslot at the beginning, then the coastal develops just a bit to far east.

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