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Winter 2017's Last Gasp


tnweathernut

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5 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro looks absolutely great tbh. Wide spread 3-6 inches for all but the southern parts of the forum. Dyersburg 3-5  Clarksville 3-5, Nashville 3-5, Crossville 3-5, Knoxville 3-5, Tri 3-6, SEKy 3-4, SWVA 3-5.  If you border AL/GA/MS you basically get shut out with that line rising as you go west. 

0z EPS appears to support the op as well.  Also seems that the EPS has a second system a couple of days laters as a Nor'easter.  The second storm idea is now on all three models either as a Miller A/hybrid/Miller B.  The EPS.  On wxbell, the slides are missing for the second storm from days 6.5-8.  Looks like a coastal of sorts judging by low locations.  Great discussion overnight.

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37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z EPS appears to support the op as well.  Also seems that the EPS has a second system a couple of days laters as a Nor'easter.  The second storm idea is now on all three models either as a Miller A/hybrid/Miller B.  The EPS.  On wxbell, the slides are missing for the second storm from days 6.5-8.  Looks like a coastal of sorts judging by low locations.  Great discussion overnight.

Generally speaking, this is why I am so infatuated with the weather, never ceases to surprise any of us!

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Probably setting myself up for a :blahblah:,but even i'm getting excited now.But the extreme cut-off the models have is still concerning to me,at least for Mid Tn.But even the Para is showing a southern shift.Surface temps will put a big dent in accum., but i wont complain about seeing snow

 

gfsp_asnow_us_29.png

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I always have to remember myself that clippers are notoriously fickle...meaning they have a tendency to jog north at the last minute.   I have seen clippers forecast for TRI that went more shallow than modeled four days out...and moved to northern KY and W VA.  That said, there are a ton of moving parts w this including a potential storm right behind it out of the GOM.  Cold high pressure is pressing in from the north.  

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Glad to see all major models this morning still depicting an accumulating snowfall.  It doesn't have to happen of course, but it's nice to have an event to track after this miserable winter (for snow lovers). This time of the year it will be all about the rates.  Heavy snow will fairly easily accumulate.  If it's not accumulating it's not really heavy snow.   

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MRX not impressed.  This is from today's long term forecast update:

 Colder air will move in behind the front, then models show
an upper trough swinging across the area and a weak surface low
moving by to our south late Saturday through early Sunday.  Thermal
profiles suggest snow will be possible especially north and
mountains, although details that far out are still rather uncertain.
Will keep mention of possible snow in the HWO.

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Maybe should clean-up the clipper comment. It is clipper like...those upper level troughs are notorious for being modeled too far south in this area.  That said, the cold hp might be underdone as a counter.  Probably more correct to call it northern stream energy or a wave.  And certainly am glad to have something to track.  March systems are fun because they often are under modeled in strength and hold surprises. 

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Would like to wait for 12Z Euro/GFS to post, but got stuff this afternoon. Last 24hr models have consolidated on the track. 12Z NAM Para is quite dynamic, but will manage expectations with the NAM Op. Verbatim snow develops Saturday in Western Kentucky tracking toward northern Middle Tenn. Upper Plateau is looking good Saturday night regardless of any model wobbles. Then Knoxville is in the game and TRI looks great!

Models have consolidated on general tracking themes, so I would not expect a huge move either way. However the boundary layer will remain critical for Nashville and Knoxville. BNA probably has a better chance of dynamic cooling. Knox boundary layer is always a whip in the Valley. ATTM I expect both to change over pretty quickly to snow, esp in the evening, but it's no guarantee. Upper Plateau to TRI into southwest VA looks more certain.

500 mb PVA tracks overhead. With a Miller A that's too far north; but, with this slider it is probably OK. Best 700 mb lift is at/south of I-40 and 850 mb WAA/low is south of I-40, both good if one wants snow. Again I see this as an I-40 north event not including MEM. Jackson, TN is a really tough call esp daytime. If it pans out I might travel because CHA blanks in any scenario I can imagine. Definitely rooting for our friends up along and north of I-40.

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12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Would like to wait for 12Z Euro/GFS to post, but got stuff this afternoon. Last 24hr models have consolidated on the track. 12Z NAM Para is quite dynamic, but will manage expectations with the NAM Op. Verbatim snow develops Saturday in Western Kentucky tracking toward northern Middle Tenn. Upper Plateau is looking good Saturday night regardless of any model wobbles. Then Knoxville is in the game and TRI looks great!

Models have consolidated on general tracking themes, so I would not expect a huge move either way. However the boundary layer will remain critical for Nashville and Knoxville. BNA probably has a better chance of dynamic cooling. Knox boundary layer is always a whip in the Valley. ATTM I expect both to change over pretty quickly to snow, esp in the evening, but it's no guarantee. Upper Plateau to TRI into southwest VA looks more certain.

500 mb PVA tracks overhead. With a Miller A that's too far north; but, with this slider it is probably OK. Best 700 mb lift is at/south of I-40 and 850 mb WAA/low is south of I-40, both good if one wants snow. Again I see this as an I-40 north event not including MEM. Jackson, TN is a really tough call esp daytime. If it pans out I might travel because CHA blanks in any scenario I can imagine. Definitely rooting for our friends up along and north of I-40.

Thanks for your thoughts, Jeff.  They are always appreciated.  

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1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

By 72, looking at 500, the ridging out west is a little stronger, but also a little further east and the shortwave in the midwest doesn't appear to be as robust.  Still good precip breaking out in the heartland and coming SE.  Troughing in the northeast still looks good.

Definite S trend,snow in the southern valley now

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