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Bob Chill

Winter 2017-18 Disco

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8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Fantastic post Showme.

I am curious as to why you left 67-68 out of your Enso years.  It might be the best match we have, going back to the strong nino of 15-16.

Great catch. Thank you. Seems that the great color coded Enso chart I was using wasn't so great at color coding for Ninas after all. Missed 4 years that should have made the initial cut (1951, 1968, 1986, 1997). Of those 4, 1968 should be added to the final cut. Also after looking over the numbers once again I found two years that were close but just didn't quite meet my criteria for PDO, 1965 and 1971. So the updated years should be 1955, 1968, 1975, 1996, 2001, 2006.

Updated Dec-Feb 500 mb
UpdatedDec-Feb.png.f9ff643568d39dd03e2ff9e97a0791de.png

Updated Dec 500 mb

UpdatedDec.png.7f3c2f25d39d6340b2572e4b1e0d6434.png

Updated Jan 500mb
UpdatedJan.png.13dc91dedc948811fff4cea9a3337203.png

Updated Feb 500 mb
UpdatedFeb.png.3e2cfe16cb68357edb260ee9b314872f.png

 

Very good matches on the updated composites to what we were seeing with my initial post

 

I also pulled up November and March out of curiosity. 
 

November 500 mb

UpdateddNov.png.c954ca236730627295e065068664309c.png

March 500 mb
UpdatedMarch.png.bf2894b2be30c725e45366d9ecbd31e1.png

November - March 500 mb
UpdatedNov-March.png.962855e49de33c87b4c77152bf8b069e.png

November and March aren't shabby either. Would probably mean an early winter and a late spring. Honestly going into a La Nina and seeing these composites for November through March is far and above what I would have hoped for. Where do I sign up?

Here's an updated snow list.

1955 Balt 10.1 DC 6.6

1968 Balt 21.4 DC 21.4

1975 Balt 12.2 DC 12.8

1996 Balt 62.5 DC 46.0 

2001 Balt 8.7 DC 7.4

2006 Balt 19.6 DC 13.6
 

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7 hours ago, eurojosh said:

Really awesome post, @showmethesnow

 

Is there any reason to hope that older years in that dataset would become less relevant due to increases in SSTs off the east coast compared to the 1950s or 60s? I'm trying to find data to support that assumption (great incidental read here, btw: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do%3Fid%3D79624%26pt%3D10%26p%3D52174&ved=0ahUKEwiPhbX1_tDWAhVRyWMKHfBgDq0QFghAMAM&usg=AFQjCNF-hN_NqI5nBolMpU3MjgBaTyjVCg) but haven't yet done so. If a degree or two in SSTs does make a difference however, that should be regardless of the Pacific Nina and North Atlantic blocking at a local impact level... I think...

 

______________

I think therefore I wishcast....

Honestly that is above my pay grade. :) 

I am still trying to wrap my head around on how to account for the adjusted heights for the earlier years due to warming.

But if I were to make a guess I would say that there is probably some influence there. How much though, no idea.

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Honestly that is above my pay grade. :) 

I am still trying to wrap my head around on how to account for the adjusted heights for the earlier years due to warming.

But if I were to make a guess I would say that there is probably some influence there. How much though, no idea.

There is some influence but if we're just looking for strong anomaly locations it doesn't have that much influence for our purposes. Areas of weak BN height anomalies get kinda muddy using old analogs with 81-10 climo period but since we're looking for strong anomaly locations it doesn't matter much. 

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On ‎9‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 7:24 PM, mitchnick said:

Come to think about it,  it comes out on the 0z run on the 1st of the month and it's not yet 0z 10/1/17.

I still don't see October CanSIPS on TT.  Isn't it usually out by now? 

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes. Don't know why it isn't. Maybe it showed a great winter for the MA and they scrapped it figuring it was a bad run.

After CanSIPS canceled winter last month, maybe winter struck back and canceled CanSIPS. 

 

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2 hours ago, cae said:

I still don't see October CanSIPS on TT.  Isn't it usually out by now? 

I looked yesterday and could have sworn they had the new run up. Thought I checked the dates and everything. Maybe they pulled it? If it was in fact the new run, then all I can tell you is don't bother looking without taking some meds first. Was going to mention it on these boards but I was to busy frothing at the mouth after looking at it.

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31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I looked yesterday and could have sworn they had the new run up. Thought I checked the dates and everything. Maybe they pulled it? If it was in fact the new run, then all I can tell you is don't bother looking without taking some meds first. Was going to mention it on these boards but I was to busy frothing at the mouth after looking at it.

I've been checking and checked several times yesterday and it was always September's run, but who knows. Chuck's NAO thread on the general board looks a bit encouraging fwiw.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I've been checking and checked several times yesterday and it was always September's run, but who knows. Chuck's NAO thread on the general board looks a bit encouraging fwiw.

Have to look at it. I was encouraged by the composites I pulled up for whatever it's worth. Played around with them a little and liked the fact that even just outside the parameters I had set on PDO, ENSO and QBO there was still a strong tendency for -NAO. I guess we will see though. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I've been checking and checked several times yesterday and it was always September's run, but who knows. Chuck's NAO thread on the general board looks a bit encouraging fwiw.

I'm not encouraged by Chuck's current mental state

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6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Baoqiang_Xiang/publication/271737956_Impacts_of_two_types_of_La_Nina_on_the_NAO_during_boreal_winter/links/5666facc08aea62726ee36e6.pdf this might be interesting for you guys.

Abstract The present work identifies two types of La

Nin˜a based on the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature

(SST) anomaly. In contrast to the eastern Pacific

(EP) La Nin˜a event, a new type of La Nin˜a (central Pacific,

or CP La Nin˜a) is featured by the SST cooling center over

the CP. These two types of La Nin˜a exhibit a fundamental

difference in SST anomaly evolution: the EP La Nin˜a

shows a westward propagation feature while the CP La

Nin˜a exhibits a standing feature over the CP. The two types

of La Nin˜a can give rise to a significantly different teleconnection

around the globe. As a response to the EP La

Nin˜a, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE)

region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a

negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern

accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a

cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe.

However, the CP La Nin˜a has a roughly opposing impact

on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate

anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and

there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over

Western Europe. Modeling experiments indicate that the

above contrasting atmospheric anomalies are mainly

attributed to the different SST cooling patterns for the two

types of La Nin˜ a. Mixing up their signals would lead to

difficulty in seasonal prediction of regional climate. Since

the La Nin˜a-related SST anomaly is clearly observed during

the developing autumn, the associated winter climate

anomalies over Western Europe could be predicted a season

in advance

Found this in the main forum and found it somewhat interesting. Considering right now we are dealing with an EP (eastern pacific) Nina....

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I looked yesterday and could have sworn they had the new run up. Thought I checked the dates and everything. Maybe they pulled it? If it was in fact the new run, then all I can tell you is don't bother looking without taking some meds first. Was going to mention it on these boards but I was to busy frothing at the mouth after looking at it.

I take it the Cansips were not good?

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Just now, Philadelphia Snow said:

I take it the Cansips were not good?

Considering no one else seemed to see it I am beginning to question whether maybe I was looking at an old run or possibly had the CFS instead. Whatever it was it was a pretty ugly look.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Considering no one else seemed to see it I am beginning to question whether maybe I was looking at an old run or possibly had the CFS instead. Whatever it was it was a pretty ugly look.

I have looked multiple times daily since Sunday, and the most recent run is always 0z Sept 01. I really dont think its out yet.

Probably was the CFS, which has been on one of its total crap look streaks. Looks like it may be headed back the other way now though. Latest runs aren't awful.

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LOL, just looked at the cansips model runs from July 31 and compared to those init on August 31.  Absolutely no continuity.  

You guys can post them, take them seriously, worry over them, but, for me, they are now squarely in the same category with the CFSv2.......trash.

 

I can save both the US and Canadian governments plenty of money.  I'll make 15 different guesses for the long range forecast and call it a day.  I'll make sure to get Bob and some of the others to give me examples of a great look, terrible look, great winter, awful winter and everything in between.  One of my forecasts will be correct and we can all celebrate my long range climate model.

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Every time I look at the data and analogs 2008 and 2012 just weigh down my optimism.  Both were pretty decent matches for enso, pdo, and qbo, both absolutely sucked monkey balls, and both were by far the most recent example of such a climate configuration.  2 is not a significant enough sample size to say with any certainty or even likelihood that those 2 years are the perfect example of how this pattern will play out, they could just be a fluke that both were that way, but I just can't feel optimistic for our prospects with our two most recent examples of suck a pattern having been so awful. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, just looked at the cansips model runs from July 31 and compared to those init on August 31.  Absolutely no continuity.  

You guys can post them, take them seriously, worry over them, but, for me, they are now squarely in the same category with the CFSv2.......trash.

 

I can save both the US and Canadian governments plenty of money.  I'll make 15 different guesses for the long range forecast and call it a day.  I'll make sure to get Bob and some of the others to give me examples of a great look, terrible look, great winter, awful winter and everything in between.  One of my forecasts will be correct and we can all celebrate my long range climate model.

I doubt anyone has their winter forecast hinging on the cansips.  Its just one data point to look at and something to keep us interested until the real serious stuff starts to show in about another month. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt anyone has their winter forecast hinging on the cansips.  Its just one data point to look at and something to keep us interested until the real serious stuff starts to show in about another month. 

Exactly. None of us take the CFS or CanSips as gospel. They generally follow climo so the month over month changes are tied to the strengthening nina look in the Pac. My expectations won't change until things are actually happening in Dec. Northern stream dominant and BN precip in general is all I got. Chaos embedded in that will determine snowfall. We're a solid 2 months away from really understanding if we kick off winter in a shutout pattern or one that can do something. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. None of us take the CFS or CanSips as gospel. They generally follow climo so the month over month changes are tied to the strengthening nina look in the Pac. My expectations won't change until things are actually happening in Dec. Northern stream dominant and BN precip in general is all I got. Chaos embedded in that will determine snowfall. We're a solid 2 months away from really understanding if we kick off winter in a shutout pattern or one that can do something. 

That kinda reminds me of what a disappointment Dec of 15 was.  Expectations were for better.  Probably a good idea to have no expectations and just see how it plays out.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That kinda reminds me of what a disappointment Dec of 15 was.  Expectations were for better.  Probably a good idea to have no expectations and just see how it plays out.

Dude, you come in the LR thread multiple times every year and make it clear that you think long range discussion is a complete waste of time. And that's fine because accuracy is low. But if you really think there is no reason to discuss anything beyond 5 days then why waste time pointing out that you think it's a waste of time? 

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, you come in the LR thread multiple times every year and make it clear that you think long range discussion is a complete waste of time. And that's fine because accuracy is low. But if you really think there is no reason to discuss anything beyond 5 days then why waste time pointing out that you think it's a waste of time? 

Sorry my post went right over your head.

But I understand.  You think winter is going to be a fail.  That's fair enough.

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42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sorry my post went right over your head.

But I understand.  You think winter is going to be a fail.  That's fair enough.

I'm pretty confident in this winter exceeding last year's snowfall and also not as warm. 

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, just looked at the cansips model runs from July 31 and compared to those init on August 31.  Absolutely no continuity.  

You guys can post them, take them seriously, worry over them, but, for me, they are now squarely in the same category with the CFSv2.......trash.

 

I can save both the US and Canadian governments plenty of money.  I'll make 15 different guesses for the long range forecast and call it a day.  I'll make sure to get Bob and some of the others to give me examples of a great look, terrible look, great winter, awful winter and everything in between.  One of my forecasts will be correct and we can all celebrate my long range climate model.

True long-rangers don't use climate models imo.

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3 hours ago, BTRWx said:

True long-rangers don't use climate models imo.

Those models jump all over and follow climo usually so they mostly don't add much except conversation imo. But this is the long range thread so it's worth a mention when a data point comes out. Even a less significant one. 

Now before things devolve into our annual fight over what's worth talking about and what's not... this is a weather forum. And this is the long range seasonal winter thread. Imho anything related to that is fair game. You wanna discuss the cfs or cansips go. Talk about the old school stuff like caterpillars and squirrels have at it. Bring up the farmers almanac sure. I'm not going to weigh it all but what's the harm?  There are serious awful problems in the world today and this isn't one of them. Most of us come in here for fun and to get away from that stuff and because we love weather. Discussing those things isn't going to harm anyone. If you don't like it ignore it. 

In the winter of course I would rather be discussing things in the short range.  Often I step back in the close range not because I don't like it but because we have a multitude of skilled posters who cover it quite well and things happen at such speed in the nowcast period that between work and coaching and a toddler I just can't keep up.  But I would rather be tracking something close and those storms that just pop up 72 hours out are the best. Less angst waiting for it to fail. Omg the blizzard 2 years ago was torture in that regard.  But when there is nothing going on inside 5 days I will look to the long range for hints at when things could get more favorable.  And yes I do that with a lean towards optimism because I simply don't feel like being depressed all the time over frozen water that I have no control over.  Life's too short.  We all know long range stuff is low probability.  So if you think it's useless and a total waste of time good for you.  Perhaps say it once and then let the rest of us have our vice and enjoy ourselves.  Thank you....

PS...this wasn't directed at any one person.   No one take this personally. Just felt what was coming and thought maybe we could not go there again this year.  

 

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15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, just looked at the cansips model runs from July 31 and compared to those init on August 31.  Absolutely no continuity.  

You guys can post them, take them seriously, worry over them, but, for me, they are now squarely in the same category with the CFSv2.......trash.

 

I can save both the US and Canadian governments plenty of money.  I'll make 15 different guesses for the long range forecast and call it a day.  I'll make sure to get Bob and some of the others to give me examples of a great look, terrible look, great winter, awful winter and everything in between.  One of my forecasts will be correct and we can all celebrate my long range climate model.

The Cansips did fairly well last year but that doesn't mean I buy into nor does it mean I don't. Just means I am in observation mode to see how it performs over the long haul. That being said I think there is a lot more continuity then you want to give credit for.

People have a tendency to base their judgement on the anomalies that are displayed on these charts without looking any farther. I myself am often guilty of that as well. But quite often the difference between a neg departure and a positive departure is only a matter of a few mb so the anomaly look can be very misleading. So you really need to look deeper. What I mean by that is you need to look at the key features that are popping up as well as the isobars to get an idea of the general over all pattern/flow.

When you ignore the anomalies and look deeper into the 500 mb maps between the Aug and Sept runs of the Cansips I find they are a very close match with the key features and the flow despite what the anomalies might suggest. Besides some minor adjustments here and there the only key difference I see here is that the Sept run lost the northern based +PNA we were seeing into western Canada and Alaska. And yes that would have a significant impact for our neck of the woods, which is what we all key on, but irregardless of that the Cansips shows good continuity between runs IMO.

I think the surface is an even better indicator of how well the Aug and Sept runs match up. Again ignore the anomalies but instead look at the key features. Honestly I believe they are almost spot on with each other.

Aug_75.png

Sept_75.png

 

 

 

surfaceaug_75.png

 

surfacesept_75.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 10/4/2017 at 0:26 PM, psuhoffman said:

Every time I look at the data and analogs 2008 and 2012 just weigh down my optimism.  Both were pretty decent matches for enso, pdo, and qbo, both absolutely sucked monkey balls, and both were by far the most recent example of such a climate configuration.  2 is not a significant enough sample size to say with any certainty or even likelihood that those 2 years are the perfect example of how this pattern will play out, they could just be a fluke that both were that way, but I just can't feel optimistic for our prospects with our two most recent examples of suck a pattern having been so awful. 

Looking at the Enso/PDO combo I am not sure I like the match with 2008. I will try my best to explain why. In 07/08 we saw an earlier onset of negative departures with Enso (March 2007, Aug 2017). We also saw it reach moderate status by Sept of that year whereas this Sept it will clock in, at best, as a very weak Nina but in more likelihood it will be a cold neutral (Noaa doesn't have the figures out yet). And now looking at the current sst's it looks as if the cold anomalies have backed off somewhat as well. So barring a strong reversal in the anomaly trends in the next week or so I have to question whether we even see an index value over a very weak Nina for October vs 2007 values falling just short of a strong Nina. So in a nutshell, 07/08 had much more time to establish a Nina pattern and a strong one at that heading into the winter whereas at this time chances are decent that we won't even reach weak status.

Now looking at PDO for both years we are seeing the same disconnect between the years on the PDO progression as well. Looking over the transition from neg to pos or pos to neg over the years since 1951 it seems that quite often that transition between states has a period of muddled signals where it bounces back and forth between neg and positive states before finally it latches onto where it wants to go and the +PDO/-PDO signal starts to become a driver of the weather patterns. Looking at 2007 we saw the muddled transition period with the mixed signal occur through Aug and then finally flip to neg in the fall where it became a player in driving the winter pattern.. This year we are only now entering the transition period in fall so at worst we are looking at a neutral PDO and that is not to say that weather memory doesn't still see the +PDO regime. The quickest I see at this point of a -PDO and its influence on the weather pattern taking hold would be mid to late winter and I have to question whether it would be too late at that point to have a noticably impact on our winter. 

So basically what we had in 07/08 was an earlier onset of Nina reaching strong status heading into winter. And we also had a moderate -PDO set up in the fall and progress through the winter. When the PDO state lines up with the ENSO it has a tendency to strengthen the ENSO state, in this case the Nina. So my belief is that what we saw happen in 07/08 was a firmly established and strong Nina pattern being bolstered by a -PDO during a key time (Fall) when the winter weather patterns are becoming established. This timing and strength of the Nina basically over rode all other signals that could have had an influence on the pattern through the winter including the large neg departures we saw with the QBO. On the other hand this years ENSO/PDO entering the critical time of Fall are for the most part Neutral with no clear signal shining through. So with us now entering the heart of -QBO departures as we enter fall and winter I would believe that this signal would shine through. Which tends to weaken the jet and produce blocking.

Now the above is one of several things that I incorporated into my composites on the border line years that I posted a few days ago, that I didn't mention because I was pressed for time. To me, not only are the current values of a state important but also the progression and timing as well. My key focus was on the fall, where we build the base from which the winter weather patterns will be established from, and how we got there. Maybe it was happenstance but I did notice while doing up the composites that several years that had a somewhat strong and established Nina, were spitting out solutions for the winter that featured a +NAO even though we saw a large neg QBO departure. Maybe next month, after new indice values come out, I will dive a little deeper into it and see if there is a legitimate connection.

Now as far as 11/12 I think that is an even worse match then 07/08 for the exact reasons mentioned above. Now if we see a huge negative spike this month with ENSO/PDO then I might reconsider my position but at this point I think it is border line as to whether that would have a major impact to the winter, that is if my thoughts on the matter have any validity.

 

Enso

2007   0.71   0.32  -0.03  -0.23  -0.29  -0.41  -0.54  -0.84  -1.13  -1.40  -1.54  -1.60
 2008  -1.59  -1.42 
2017  -0.29  -0.07   0.14   0.28   0.38   0.37   0.15  -0.15 

PDO

2007     0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008    -1.00  -0.77 
2017     0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10  

 

 

 

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