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Spring 2017 Pattern Discussion

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0138
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1118 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...EXT SOUTHWEST VA...EXT
WESTERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE


VALID 231517Z - 232102Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SETUP WITH SHALLOW
EMBEDDED CONVECTION MAY POSE ISOLATED FF CONCERN DUE TO SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 CONUS VISIBLE IMAGERY DENOTES A STEADY UPTICK
AND EXPANSION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS E TN WITHIN THE
GREATEST DIFFLUENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AS THE MEAN UPPER LOW
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL TN.  RAP ANALYSIS AND HRRR SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON OF WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY UP TO 100-150 J/KG ADVECTING
THROUGH THE WARM CONVEYOR (OF S AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW) ACROSS N
GA INTO TN TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION.  LOCAL
1HR OBSERVED TOTALS ARE IN THE .5"/HR RANGE CURRENTLY ACROSS SE TN
THOUGH WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER DYNAMICS (INCREASED
DIVERGENCE/DPVA) AND INSTABILITY...CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FURTHER INCREASE AND WITH SATURATED PROFILES BELOW CLOUD BASE
LIMITING LOSS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES...THIS SHOULD BRING
SOME SCATTERED RAIN RATES/1HR TOTALS VERY CLOSE TO ECLIPSING THE
SUB 1" FFG ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FACING FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS.  EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE
ISOLATED ENHANCED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...MODERATE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE LONGER-TERM/SLOW RISE
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH 1-2" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6HRS ACROSS E
TN AND N GA.

 

 

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From the look of the radar, and webcams around, I think there has been a bit of downsloping for areas in the Tennessee foothills today.  I've seen some sun peaking out around Greenville, TN. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/greeneville-tn/

As the low pressure pivots around to our south, that should eliminate much of the downsloping, and rainfall rates will increase in the foothills later this evening. 

 

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Euro backed off the system today in Asia,which it was showing a system into the 2nd week of May possibly for us.Looks like right now if it don't change we should be looking at a ridge into the upper plains and OV ,GWO is now showing a almost -3.5 sigma in the long range,so a potential for some below seasonal temps looks possible into the 2nd wk of May

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Downslope flow continues this morning across East TN--clearing out the clouds around the Tri-Cities, while it remains cloudy down the valley around Knoxville, and farther west in Middle TN. 

 

vis-l.jpg

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Final rainfall totals for the past seven days.  Some truly hefty amounts.  The North Fork of the Holston is ripping.  The South Fork has submerged Riverfront Park.  Crazy amounts of water after seeing both rivers bone dry last fall.  

IMG_0586.PNG

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Trees and all things green are loving the recent rains.   But I've also noticed that despite all the heavy rain, local streams and creeks are already falling quickly around here--a testament to how dry the sub-surface soil actually was.  The soil and trees were obviously still thirsty, and hopefully the water table is now recovering from last year's extreme and exceptional drought. 

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Didn't know where to put this, but a client of mine captured the best (non photoshopped or re-touched) photo of a rainbow I have ever seen from the back deck of their home near the Bristol Motor Speedway.  She shared it with WCYB and they put their stamp on it.  Simply amazing!

I will also echo the sentiments regarding just how quickly standing water has been sucked into the ground.  It's hard to find a puddle anywhere and we ALMOST practiced baseball yesterday afternoon, not even 24 hours after the rain stopped.  We probably need several more good rains over the coming month or two to "feel" and be normal again......

Weather Rainbow Picture 04242017 Maria LaBarbera WCYB.jpg

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The reservoirs up here are starting to go to full pool or just above...see S Holston and Watauga.  Cherokee is above its levels from last summer already.  We better hope we don't get any more heavy rainfall area wide.  A writer for Little River Outfitters mentioned that TVA is probably holding back water to keep the TN River from flooding.  We got hammered over here.  Reports that the North Fork of the Holston submerged an expensive crane near Weber City where a bridge was being replaced.  You see that, 1234?  Water here is slowly receeding.  The North Fork is still raging.  

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Early end to severe season, not by death ridge, but by death trough.

I think we've flushed more moderate risks than Kansas has choked Elite Eights.

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