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Jim Martin

Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

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3 hours ago, SmokeEater said:

Major damage in Hattiesburg with injuries from multiple chasers in the area, large tornado continues on the ground.

I feel asleep around 1 am and the last radar sweep I did on radarscope worried me, there was already some nasty well formed cells producing in LA. Gonna be a long couple of days...

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 Low level clouds moving off the gulf from SW to NE. No idea how fast but they're really trucking! Nice write up on the situation from MOB below.

FXUS64 KMOB 211339
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
739 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated zones to indicate a Wind Advisory for coastal
counties out in advance of the squall line that is moving east across
the area. An increasingly strong low level jet has resulted in a
strong southerly surface wind flow, sustained at 15 to 25 mph with
frequent gusts to 35 mph. These southerly winds will diminish
somewhat this afternoon in the wake of the storms, so the Advisory
is only valid through 2 pm this afternoon. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
21/12Z issuance...Strong southerly winds 15 to 25 knots, with ocnl
stronger gusts, out ahead of an approaching squall line. The line of
storms will pass west to east across the region this morning, with
southerly winds continuing but weakening. The showers and storms will
end for most areas this afternoon, but increase in coverage again
this evening and overnight. As the storms move through this morning,
IFR or LIFR ceilings/vsbys can be expected in and near storms. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Severe weather event
expected to be ongoing over the western portions of the forecast area
at the beginning of the forecast period, and HiRes models are in
agreement in moving the convective activity east across the remainder
of the forecast area through the morning and exit the region by early
afternoon. After a lull in activity this afternoon and into early
this evening, another potential round of severe storms is possible
late this evening and overnight (most likely in areas east of I-65 in
southwest Alabama and over the western Florida panhandle) Saturday
into early Sunday morning.

Latest RAP and HRRR models indicate an 850mb southwesterly jet of 50
to 60 knots working its way east across the forecast area (Mississippi
and into southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle) this
morning. This is also supported best by the 21/00Z ECMWF. At the
surface winds remain backed out of the south and southeast due to a
developing surface meso-low over southwest Mississippi early this
morning, that is expected to move to near Tuscaloosa Alabama by
around 7 am this morning, and then on east-northeast across central
Alabama and likely weakening through midday. With this, strongly
curved hodographs/low level shear parameters will favor the potential
for tornadoes this morning across southwest Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle, where RAP and HRRR both indicate 0-1 km Storm
Relative Helicity as high as 400-500 m2/s2. As a result,
strong/significant tornado (EF2+) threat will migrate out of
southeast Mississippi and into southwest Alabama through around 9 am.
Severe threat will then continue east across south central Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle through late morning and very early
afternoon as the upper shortwave ejects off to the northeast. A
Tornado Watch is in effect for our southeast Mississippi counties
through 7 am and may need to be extended in time if storms have not
exited east of that area by then, and a Tornado Watch is in effect
for all of southwest and south central Alabama and the western
Florida until 11 am. As the 850 mb jet works into the region from the
west, 65 degree plus dewpoints will advect inland across the region,
with MLCape approaching 1400 J/kg in some areas, so very unstable
airmass for this time of the year. With the increasing atmospheric
moisture, also looking at a flash flood threat increasing across
portions of the forecast area and will have to monitor for this
possibility.

Most of the morning activity will likely be east of the forecast
area by noon or early this afternoon, with a lull in convective
activity late this afternoon into early evening. As the upper low
ejects northeast away from the region late today into the evening,
shortwave energy aloft just in advance of the final approaching
front will possibly re-initiate convection east of I-65 in Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle. This scenario is a little more
iffy than the earlier weather, but if it does develop conditions
will still support another round of severe weather.

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.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL MACON...NORTHWESTERN LEE AND CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES...  
          
AT 843 AM CST, TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALEXANDER CITY TO NEAR NOTASULGA, MOVING EAST AT  
30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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must be seeing debris...... the wordings?

 

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
908 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017  
  
ALC017-081-211545-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170121T1545Z/  
LEE AL-CHAMBERS AL-  
908 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR EASTERN  
LEE AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES...  
          
AT 908 AM CST, TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RIDGE GROVE TO NEAR BEANS MILL TO NEAR GRIFFEN  
MILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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C2tEOW6XEAEctCP.jpg

 

Thunder in the distance growing louder here in Navarre. SWS from MOB including my area.

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
914 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ058-060-264-266-FLZ202>206-211645-
Baldwin Central AL-Crenshaw AL-Covington AL-Baldwin Coastal AL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
914 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA
AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CST...

At 913 AM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northwest of Elba to 10 miles northeast of
Roeville to near Gulf Shores,and moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton
Beach, Ensley, Warrington, Crestview, Niceville, Gulf Shores, Eglin
AFB, Foley, Pace, Milton, Opp, Valparaiso, Gulf Breeze, Orange Beach
and Goulding.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for south central
and southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

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SUNDAY 1/22
Two rounds of severe thunderstorms (overnight storms continuing, followed by another round starting in afternoon in AL) in south and east AL, GA, SC, NC, south VA, east TN, FL panhandle, north and central FL. TORCON - 6 central and south GA, central and east SC, southeast NC, northeast FL; 4 - east-central and southeast AL, west and central FL panhandle, north GA, west SC, west and north NC; 3 rest of area. A line of severe thunderstorm pushes into south FL Sunday night. TORCON - 2

16003213_10154268625373201_2725624977120594726_n.jpg

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TONIGHT 1/21-22
Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, possibly strong, in southeast AR, northeast and southeast LA, MS, AL, GA, south SC, FL panhandle, extreme south TN.
TORCON - 6 central and south MS, south AL, south GA; 5 - central AL, central GA, FL panhandle; 4 northeast and southeast LA, southeast AR; 3 rest of area

16195358_10154268628198201_5251471929674986347_n.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1126 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL NOON EST  
      
* AT 1126 AM EST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WESLEY  
  CHURCH, OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1027 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017  
  
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHERN AR...WESTERN MS...AND NORTHERN LA...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
ARKLATEX REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER  
MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH  
EARLY SUNDAY FROM LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA,  
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COVER  
THE FULL SPECTRUM FROM ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES TO VERY LARGE HAIL  
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
..AL/FL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON  
  
A FAST MOVING AND INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE, EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL, AND  
SOUTHWEST GA.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS GA AND INTO SC LATER  
TODAY.  TRANSIENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE  
LINE THIS MORNING, PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND  
TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD DUE  
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS  
MAINTAINING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES.  SOME  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING MAY FURTHER  
DESTABILIZE THE AREA AND MAINTAIN THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE  
STORMS.  
   
..AR/LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
  
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL  
HELP TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR A FEW  
MORE HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM AND WEST TX  
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT BY MID/LATE  
AFTERNOON.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST TX AROUND PEAK HEATING  
AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA AND INTO MS THIS EVENING.   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES, COLD MID LEVEL  
TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO PROMOTE A  
WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.  CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE  
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED, FURTHER INCREASING THE RISK OF  
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THEREFORE HAVE UPGRADED  
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TO MDT RISK FOR THE HAIL THREAT.  
   
..LA/MS/AL/GA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT  
  
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION AND THE  
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA.  FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,  
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR  
WILL PROMOTE A TORNADO RISK IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM.  A FEW MODELS  
SUGGEST ANOTHER ACTIVE ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AFFECTING AREAS  
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS STORMS.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE  
ENHANCED RISK AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANGES.  
  
..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/21/2017  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED   TORNADO WARNING   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL   1031 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017     THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...   NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...   NORTH CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...     * UNTIL 1100 AM CST     * AT 1030 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A   TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DE FUNIAK SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35   MPH.     HAZARD...TORNADO.     SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.  

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Depending on exact timing there could be a potential disaster in the making.  The NFC championship game is tomorrow in Atlanta.  The amount of people exposed to a potential storm in traffic or coming to/leaving the game would be very very high.   

 

Rise up! It's the last game in he dome before we get Mercedes benz stadium.  1.5 billion dollars later. 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1213 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 1245 PM EST  
      
* AT 1213 PM EST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
  BOLINGBROKE, OR NEAR FORSYTH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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Pretty impressive couplet halfway between Macon and Forsyth right now. Looks to be crossing I-75 right now. 

 

Big F-4 passed through here in Monroe County about 5 years ago in the same area.  Scary stuff..

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1 minute ago, jrips27 said:

Pretty impressive couplet halfway between Macon and Forsyth right now. Looks to be crossing I-75 right now. 

The correlation coefficient is lowered. It is probably a tornado crossing Interstate 75. Wow, that sounds dangerous!

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