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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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If anyone missed it, Larry Cosgrove venting about the inability of the models to consistently predict anything.

 

" Anyone following my forecast statements on social media can easily understand the frustration I have experienced with the numerical models this winter season. Unable to handle the unusually robust Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Maritime Continent and Oceania, the various schemes have changed rapidly, on an almost day-by-day process. Big cold waves turn to unusual warmth, and vice versa. Upper air features often verify the direct opposite of  what was predicted. With such insanity at work, how can anyone hope for a reasonably accurate forecast?

All you can do is push ahead, use climatology, analogs and seasonal trends to take a stab at apparent weather in North America. Since we do know that cold air masses this winter have had a shorter life span than those of warm or mild character, it is sometimes useful to not go overboard with expectations of Arctic intrusions into the U.S. The turnabout of precipitation into the West, and relative lack of snow along the Eastern Seaboard might also influence thinking. But then again....
"

 

Link: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE

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