Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Sure it can. But severe thunderstorms are called severe because of the understanding that damage can and likely will result from them. Look, I'm not against or angry at people that like severe weather. I'm really not. I'm just not personally interested in it happening near my home or my family, so why would I be interested in it happening near someone else? But I do object somewhat to the word "fascination"...perhaps that's all it is for you, but there are plenty that are more than fascinated by severe weather, they actively root for it to occur. And when I read some comments from those people, I can't help but wonder what they'd say if a big fat tree split their house in half or if large hail decimated their personal vehicles. Will they continue to cheer lead at that point? I can't answer that. But I wonder... They're messed up in the head tbh. I love when we get beautiful set ups over uninhabited plains because it's best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Unfortunately the new SPC products this morning now bring a slight risk to the entire commonwealth on Wednesday (Day 2). It bears some similarities to the Saturday outbreak in that there will be a strong, deep, and generally unidirectional flow aloft. 850 winds at 18z Wed progged to be 40-60knots with 700mb screaming along at 70-80 knots over our region. There's definitely a decided straight-line wind threat for sure once again. New 6z NAM also generates some good CAPE (good for this time of the year) in the Sus Valley at this timeframe as well with values in the 1000-1500 range in south-central and Sus Valley. Also showing some reasonable helicity and strong shear present so EHI values are elevated. 0-1km values are 1-2 in the Sus Valley and the 0-3km are actually quite high (over 3). Those are easily values supportive of an elevated tornado risk.. it's a good thing we don't have late spring/early summer heating yet. As such, it will likely be the same type of threat we had Saturday with a couple possible spin-ups. Predominant mode should be lines and clusters, so will have to mainly watch for imbedded stuff of the QLCS variety when it comes to tornadoes...although if anything individual develops it will need to be watched very closely. The primary threat though will be the damaging straight line winds again, and given the look I wouldn't be surprised if SPC noses an enhanced into PA when this threat becomes D1 range. So this makes 2 severe outbreak threats in 4 days.. at the end of February. Hope this isn't a sign of the upcoming warm season. After that whole ordeal Wed afternoon and evening comes through and we go back to cold Thursday, the next system of note comes Thur night into Friday... and the threat from that one will actually be snow for a change. GFS/Euro have had it pretty consistently. The GFS has been taking a swath of snow right through the heart of PA the last couple runs after focusing on northern PA. The Euro continues to be a bit further south and somewhat drier, with a light snow swath coming across the southern third or so of PA. The NAM is just starting to see it and the 6z looked similar to the 0z GFS. The track of the weak low is being progged right through or just below southern PA, so this is actually a good track to maintain a snow swath across the state. In terms of amounts we're talking a 1-3" type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The 4K NAM has very impressive soundings for south central PA on Wednesday afternoon. Hodographs are elongated and curve rightward with the large increase in wind speed and veering from the surface to 850 mb. With surface temperatures in the low 70s, dew points in the low 60s, and cold air aloft, CAPE is substantial enough for severe convection. I almost wonder if the shear is strong enough to inhibit convection to some degree given modest, but not exceptional instability. Like MAG said, if we get discrete convection initiating ahead of the surface front, these storms could be in an environment highly favorable for supercells and potential tornadoes. The GFS has less instability with lower surface temperatures and dew points, and thus a less favorable environment. Either way, we may still have a damaging wind threat as any convection could mix the strong winds at 700 mb down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 10 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Sure it can. But severe thunderstorms are called severe because of the understanding that damage can and likely will result from them. Look, I'm not against or angry at people that like severe weather. I'm really not. I'm just not personally interested in it happening near my home or my family, so why would I be interested in it happening near someone else? But I do object somewhat to the word "fascination"...perhaps that's all it is for you, but there are plenty that are more than fascinated by severe weather, they actively root for it to occur. And when I read some comments from those people, I can't help but wonder what they'd say if a big fat tree split their house in half or if large hail decimated their personal vehicles. Will they continue to cheer lead at that point? I can't answer that. But I wonder... In my experience, the answer is no. They completely change their tune, I've seen it numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Thanks Mag and Heavy for the updates. Gotta say it makes me nervous just reading your info. (although I've got to say that you boys were spewing alot of Greek to me as I've much to learn if I'm going to educate myself to the severe side). At the end of the day Sunday, we were packing up equipment to head to my brothers for a belated birthday celebration (he and his wife both turned 50 on Sunday, but canecelled bday dinner plans to help me w/ my mini cleanup crew), and the homeowner from pic #1 who just started a Gofundme account because of insurance...(hence my rant of yesterday), turned to us and said "I heard more tornados Wednesday". I told her its going to be fine, and that its way to far out to worry about that. God i hope i was right. Like Maytown, i'm not here to judge, as most of us are here to talk about weather, and yes our fascination of it. But at the end of the day, severe wx trumps all in how it can largely affect lives....and not just our own. Squall lines and Severe storms are WAY more frequent than snow events, and w/ snow, most can divert travel plans or take a snow day to stay out of harms way. Cant get around the severe stuff - except to go the basement like many did. As weve just witnessed, severe can now start in Feb and run right into Nov., so we basiclly a 9 month window of opportunity. Snow.....well thats just a figment of my/our imagination. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I'm already nervous about tomorrow. I don't want a repeat of Saturday, especially since I'll likely be away from home when the storms barrel through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I guess I look at it as, weather is going to do whatever conditions make it inclined to do. From my experience here, discussion stays mainly scientific, though damage posts do come up as it is part of the data as a whole. I hate seeing property and lives ruined, as should everyone, but it's those few fascinated and brilliant people who allow us to prepare and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I guess I look at it as, weather is going to do whatever conditions make it inclined to do. From my experience here, discussion stays mainly scientific, though damage posts do come up as it is part of the data as a whole. I hate seeing property and lives ruined, as should everyone, but it's those few fascinated and brilliant people who allow us to prepare and learn. You make a good point man, as I thought of that when this discussion started. Without those people, our understanding and ability to take cover with much more precision than ever....would be largely non existent. After seeing the destruction first hand, and witnessing the despair (like Sauss and any other EMS folk do on a regular basis), I have to say its altered my perspective even more. Best analogy I can come up w/ regarding Severe WX....its like the "Walmart Syndrome" of many years ago....everyone wanted to see one pop up.....just not in their backyard. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I grew up in severe weather, had my house hit twice by tornadoes. The issue here is severe wx basically never happens but every few years so people aren't used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 What are we looking at as far as timing goes tomorrow, early afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: What are we looking at as far as timing goes tomorrow, early afternoon? The time, in order: 12 p.m., 1 p.m., 2 p.m., 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, sauss06 said: What are we looking at as far as timing goes tomorrow, early afternoon? 3pm-7pm or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 41 minutes ago, canderson said: I grew up in severe weather, had my house hit twice by tornadoes. The issue here is severe wx basically never happens but every few years so people aren't used to it. A lot of truth in that statement. I really don't want to get used to it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, canderson said: The time, in order: 12 p.m., 1 p.m., 2 p.m., 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. +1 Just now, maytownpawx said: 3pm-7pm or so? Thank you. I just gave my daughter a heads up at the Ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, sauss06 said: +1 Thank you. I just gave my daughter a heads up at the Ville. Tell her to head over the weather center. I'm sure Mr. Horst can keep her up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, maytownpawx said: Tell her to head over the weather center. I'm sure Mr. Horst can keep her up to date. oh he does. Last winter i text her about the big storm, she said "You're late, already got it from Horst" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: oh he does. Last winter i text her about the big storm, she said "You're late, already got it from Horst" Pretty cool stuff that a relatively small school like MU has such a stout meteorology program. I graduated right across the street (literally) from Penn Manor 34 years ago and it was well known for that back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Pretty cool stuff that a relatively small school like MU has such a stout meteorology program. I graduated right across the street (literally) from Penn Manor 34 years ago and it was well known for that back then. They're strong in a lot of areas. I have complaints of MU and my daughter is getting a quality education. Good luck tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I have been through many different types of storms, I usually do not get scared, but...I do get excited. I do (like most of you) look at the awe and power of Nature. I love good exciting storm (what ever it is) but do not want to see anyone hurt. Wednesday weather is exciting from one point but at the same time, but after Saturday, I do not want to see another tornado... Rick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Pretty cool stuff that a relatively small school like MU has such a stout meteorology program. I graduated right across the street (literally) from Penn Manor 34 years ago and it was well known for that back then. My wife graduated from PM in 87. Family owned Pine View Dairy (bagged milk). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: My wife graduated from PM in 87. Family owned Pine View Dairy (bagged milk). Nut In Conestoga? When I was younger I went nuts over their chocolate milk. Really good memories there. Sigh. Tomorrow continues to look more and more ominous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 How does tomorrow look up my way? I hate severe storms (wind mainly) Im surrounded by huge pine trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: In Conestoga? When I was younger I went nuts over their chocolate milk. Really good memories there. Sigh. Tomorrow continues to look more and more ominous... yessir. I still love their chocolate milk Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 22 hours ago, pasnownut said: I'm not sure why the vehicle is a qualifier. Miles = danger. I'm just accept it as part of my job in sales. Nut First, I drive 100,000+ miles per year. I'm on the road 9 to 11 hours per day. Second, your car weighs at best 4,500 lbs. My truck weighs between 60,000 to 80,000 lbs. Third, my truck is articulated. Once I hit the brakes on snow or ice, that trailer wants to go in a different direction than the tractor. So, yes, the vehicle does make a difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 hours ago, 2001kx said: How does tomorrow look up my way? I hate severe storms (wind mainly) Im surrounded by huge pine trees. I'm no pro or expert by any stretch but I doubt you see much severe. I am not overly impressed with the setup outside of the SE corner of the state. I very well might be wrong, so ymmv. But I would bet a beer no one in this forum encounters anything severe enough for a headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm no pro or expert by any stretch but I doubt you see much severe. I am not overly impressed with the setup outside of the SE corner of the state. I very well might be wrong, so ymmv. But I would bet a beer no one in this forum encounters anything severe enough for a headline. I'd be glad to buy you a beer if you can keep tomorrow to just run of da mill stuff. No floor hockey tomorrow night. Cancelled because of damage to some structures and many trees still down in area. Ugh Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm no pro or expert by any stretch but I doubt you see much severe. I am not overly impressed with the setup outside of the SE corner of the state. I very well might be wrong, so ymmv. But I would bet a beer no one in this forum encounters anything severe enough for a headline. I hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, 2001kx said: I hope your right. I hope he's right too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just went to SPC site to browse around and let's just say....I got some homework to do if I'm ever gonna chat severe w/ wmsptwx. Looked at cape n shear lift n all of the stuff you guys talk about. I dare say mildly intriguing Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hey, just took a look at a bunch of runs/data, it is pretty up in the air, but I see enough to warrant keeping a close eye on things. Keep in mind in our neck of the woods the main threat is wind damage and heavy downpours as opposed to areas getting hammered tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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