Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Nicole


hawkeye_wx

Recommended Posts

There's a pretty sharp increase in shear between 06z and 15z indicated on the ships guidance....I think it might be the only thing to save the Island from a major hurricane stirke. 

 

The shear indicated is still from a southwesterly direction along motion with good upper level divergence, so it could end up being a wash. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 91
  • Created
  • Last Reply
8 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Wouldn't that make it a low-end cat 4.

They tend to use multiple data points to assess intensity, combination of reduced flight level winds, sfmr, and dropsonde observations.  I'm not sure they would jump up to cat 4 just based on that single data point with no other confirmation.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Very rare for the relatively tiny island of Bermuda to be inside the eye of a hurricane. How many times has it happened?

They were in whatever that storm was 2 or 3 summers ago.  They had footage during the eye where you could hear the tree frogs and it was completely dead calm.  It was at night though so you didn't get the full feel or view of what it was like.  This time though we may literally see an entirely sunny sky if it comes overhead 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They were in whatever that storm was 2 or 3 summers ago.  They had footage during the eye where you could hear the tree frogs and it was completely dead calm.  It was at night though so you didn't get the full feel or view of what it was like.  This time though we may literally see an entirely sunny sky if it comes overhead 

Amazing. Thanks SnowGoose.

Here is a link I found for the Bermuda Weather Service radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM SRI&user=

Link to comment
Share on other sites

115kts was the highest FL in the SE quad, but the SFMR only yielded 96 kts there. Hopefully she is leveling off now.

Strong SW shear axis is hauling eastward towards Nicole. This is very evident on satellite. But it also looks like the hurricane is gaining forward motion NE. Timing is critical for Bermuda. The core may not get disrupted until after it has passed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My hunch is we don't see much if any weakening before closet approach/landfall on Bermuda. The storm motion is largely parallel to the shear, and the strongest convection is up-shear of the center. The NE eyewall convection has weakened a bit over the last hour per warming cloud tops, but it's possible this is temporary. As long as strong convection persists in the W and S quadrants I don't expect significant weakening. There isn't a huge difference between a 105kt and 115kt storm...this will be a significant hit either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forward motion appears to be increasing. Plotting this at 15 mph instead of 12 looks like eyewall interaction with the island in less than 8 hours. We're running out of time for any significant weakening. Perhaps this does back off 5 to 10 kts, but I agree this is probably going to strike as an upper Cat 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...