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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Much like this winter, the front today was a let down for my area. One bolt of lightning. I wanted some action but nope.

I agree Ashe, I heard a distant rumble of thunder and that was it. I only pick up .28 of an inch of rain as well.

I don't care what the data might show, but this winter for me will go down as one of the worst. There really just hasn't been one.

 

 

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5 hours ago, SnoJoe said:

I agree Ashe, I heard a distant rumble of thunder and that was it. I only pick up .28 of an inch of rain as well.

I don't care what the data might show, but this winter for me will go down as one of the worst. There really just hasn't been one.

 

 

Yeah this winter has been horrible. So far it has been worst than 2011/12 and that says a lot.

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Any winter when us valley folks can get at least one 5" or more snow is a good winter; no way this goes down as horrible in my book.  However, other than the snow, exceptionally warm comes to mind:maphot:

 

 

However, the ski resorts I am sure would concur with the horrible winter assessment.

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
  
AS OF 630 AM EST: STILL QUIET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER,   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS UNDERNEATH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING   
DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE EAST. RADAR   
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TN,   
WHICH SHOULD RUN UP THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS THROUGH 8 AM. CLOUD TOP   
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP   
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, OR AT LEAST IT WOULD BE IF IT   
WERE TO REACH THE NC MTNS. THIS LEADS US TO OUR FIRST PROBLEM...WHAT   
COULD BE WINTER'S LAST GASP ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.   
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL RUN UP THE MTNS AND   
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS, BUT   
THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT. WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY TO THE   
CHANCE RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE MOISTURE SHOULD   
PULL OUT BY LATE MORNING, AFTERWARD THE FCST WILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS   
ARE ALSO A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE   
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS IN THE LOW-LYING   
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING.   
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS MAY ALSO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST.  
  
THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS FAIR AND SEASONALLY COOL AS WE REMAIN   
UNDERNEATH THE LONG WAVE TROF ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT   
THE SFC. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT JUST BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE   
DRY AIR MASS WILL BE MORE OF A PROBLEM AS RH WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT   
TO THE UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. SEE THE FIRE WX   
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY   
SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE   
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS   
TO DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT A FEW OF THE URBAN HEAT   
ISLANDS AND LARGER LAKES. THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE   
WARNING FOR ALL THE ZONES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS IN   
EFFECT.  

 

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Some of the ensembles/members have a clipper type system sliding just south enough to snow in the NW NC Highcountry Sunday (ironic with the spring time change). Unfortunately others are just warm and rainy. Middle ground is rain to snow, a bit warm mid-levels until the end. Normally I'd punt without a second thought; however, the Euro is the cold one not the GFS. Only thing certain: Discount lift tickets pricing is in effect!

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Hadn't looked at the EPS in a few days (been at a NASCAR race), but suddenly we have a 3" mean for Sunday in Boone with a lot of big members. Haven't dug too deep to see if those big members are legit or not but nice to see. 

 

Supposed to be backpacking in Grayson Highlands, Virgina Sun-Tue so that could be fun.

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1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said:

Hadn't looked at the EPS in a few days (been at a NASCAR race), but suddenly we have a 3" mean for Sunday in Boone with a lot of big members. Haven't dug too deep to see if those big members are legit or not but nice to see. 

 

Supposed to be backpacking in Grayson Highlands, Virgina Sun-Tue so that could be fun.

Yea, this "event" went from flurries to possibly something bigger really quickly. Def. could be interesting hike. Never done Grayson in the snow, that might be too much for me to handle.

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Euro ensemble this morning has around 30 members with some type of snowfall for KAVL through Sunday. Looks like a few pick up on a baroclinic leaf developing with overrunning precip slamming WNC before the front cuts under the apps. Others have a stronger CAD sig and that produces magic with the main front. Lots of details to hammer out, but this is the time frame where the EPS tends to shine.


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Euro ensemble now has all 50 members seeing some form of accumulating snowfall Sat night into Sunday. I think we get hammered with the overrunning precip that develops Saturday afternoon. All major models also give KAVL snowfall. Euro is around 3", GFS is around an inch, and GEM drops 7" with the two wave phase. Still a lot of details to iron out, but this is hard to ignore.. I think Joe hits it big time with this one, 6"+. The valley will get flakes too. I think most of WNC sees 2"-4".



 

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Color me skeptical for the event this weekend. I don't buy the track of the storm. If the HP back in Canada were to weaken as it gets closer to gametime, this storm could rocket north quickly.

*edit. Also if the s/w becomes more amped could be a difference maker.

*edit 2. Regardless, it is nice to have something to track with you guys again before winters final end.

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