Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 56 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: This is when I miss Robert. He had an uncanny ability to decipher models, but he also was great at meteorology and pattern recognition. Hurricane Tracker should be waking up from his early winter slumber soon also. I honestly would be happy to get a few inches just to avoid a shut out. Yes Robert was great and Tracker since coming on has been very good. I was looking over the GEFS MEMBERS and counted more big hits for us than from the members of the 12z GEFS. Interesting that the op trended worst but the ensembles looked better in my opinion this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mkruk Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This is when I miss Robert. He had an uncanny ability to decipher models, but he also was great at meteorology and pattern recognition. Hurricane Tracker should be waking up from his early winter slumber soon also. I honestly would be happy to get a few inches just to avoid a shut out. Lol!This storm has got my interest. I'm watching it, but at this range, too much model uncertainty to pin much of anything. One thing that does seem a lock is the cold air. How often do we say that around here?! To me it seems no p-type issues at all. Just a matter of if there is a storm or not. I'll have more as the week progresses. Nice to be back and actually have something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, mkruk said: Lol! This storm has got my interest. I'm watching it, but at this range, too much model uncertainty to pin much of anything. One thing that does seem a lock is the cold air. How often do we say that around here?! To me it seems no p-type issues at all. Just a matter of if there is a storm or not. I'll have more as the week progresses. Nice to be back and actually have something to track! Yeah I believe the cold air is a lock for us especially. No p type issues and no lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yeah I believe the cold air is a lock for us especially. No p type issues and no lack of cold air.Indeed. And FWIW, GFS has been very very good this winter. Stupid Tapatalk got my username wrong. I think it's fixed now. Ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said: Indeed. And FWIW, GFS has been very very good this winter. Stupid Tapatalk got my username wrong. I think it's fixed now. Ha ha. Lol yeah I thought that might have been you but was just going with it. Glad to see you around. At least we have something to track. It's exciting to see some possibility of snow in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yes Robert was great and Tracker since coming on has been very good. I was looking over the GEFS MEMBERS and counted more big hits for us than from the members of the 12z GEFS. Interesting that the op trended worst but the ensembles looked better in my opinion this run. I noticed that also. You mentioned somewhere else that this will probably bounce all over the place, and I feel certain that you will be right. I just hope we hold somewhere in the same realm. 13 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Indeed. And FWIW, GFS has been very very good this winter. Stupid Tapatalk got my username wrong. I think it's fixed now. Ha ha. Pretty rare to feel as if the GFS could beat out the Euro, but I hope that is the case this time. Of course, by tomorrow, they could switch position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Indeed. And FWIW, GFS has been very very good this winter. Stupid Tapatalk got my username wrong. I think it's fixed now. Ha ha. Well...now we all know we've got a real chance since you've arrived. Let's bring this baby in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Chris seems to have faith that we're sitting pretty here in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 36 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Chris seems to have faith that we're sitting pretty here in WNC. And if everything goes to the Euro, I'm blaming him and the new guy who started the storm thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Chris seems to have faith that we're sitting pretty here in WNC. We are. We just need a butt load of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I personally like where we're sitting at this range. I can't imagine either the Euro nor GFS will continue verbatim much longer. Considering both are stern in their predictions, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a blend of the 2. Neither would a NW/warmer trend. Considering this piece of energy hasn't even been sampled yet, I'll gladly take where we're at. Not trying to be a killjoy, I want snow just as much as anyone else in this thread. Just trying to be a realist. GFS has little to no interaction at 5h vort maps with northern stream allowing the system to really get its act together. Euro shows good interaction that strings out the energy and doesn't allow it to really get going. I am hoping to see the Euro slow down a bit, if it comes in less progressive at 0z I will feel a lot better. Still many scenarios on the table from a very large snowstorm here in WNC to a few snow showers and a token inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hvward said: No trying to be a killjoy, I want snow just as much as anyone else in this thread. Just trying to be a realist. GFS has little to no interaction at 5h vort maps with first piece of energy allowing the system to really get its act together. Euro shows good interaction that strings out the energy and doesn't allow it to really get going. I am hoping to see the Euro slow down a bit, if it comes in less progressive at 0z I will feel a lot better. Still many scenarios on the table from a very large snowstorm here in WNC to a few snow showers and a token inch or two. Thanks Ward. You just crushed everyone's hopes and dreams of the New Year on Jan. 2. It was a good 42 hour run though. :-) It's almost 50 degrees at 10pm. That's ridiculous. It'll at least be nice to have some colder weather for a little bit, snow or not. It will be a fun week regardless, it's fun to track with you guys. Of course that meaning, you track, I read and give obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Thanks Ward. You just crushed everyone's hopes and dreams of the New Year on Jan. 2. It was a good 42 hour run though. :-) It's almost 50 degrees at 10pm. That's ridiculous. It'll at least be nice to have some colder weather for a little bit, snow or not. It will be a fun week regardless, it's fun to track with you guys. Of course that meaning, you track, I read and give obs! It ain't over yet bud! Buckle in for the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: It ain't over yet bud! Buckle in for the ride! Oh, I agree. Just nobody knows right now as Ward was saying. That's what makes it's great. I'm not real sure I want a model to tell me exactly what is going to happen. I've always thought the anticipation and not knowing was one of the best parts of a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Hvward said: Not trying to be a killjoy, I want snow just as much as anyone else in this thread. Just trying to be a realist. GFS has little to no interaction at 5h vort maps with northern stream allowing the system to really get its act together. Euro shows good interaction that strings out the energy and doesn't allow it to really get going. I am hoping to see the Euro slow down a bit, if it comes in less progressive at 0z I will feel a lot better. Still many scenarios on the table from a very large snowstorm here in WNC to a few snow showers and a token inch or two. I'm going to agree with the realism. IF the Euro were to hold, and keep it's trajectory, we're honestly not even close to getting more than a few snow showers this weekend. Now obviously things will change, but possibly get worse. It will be interesting to watch, but I'm not going to spend all week with the thoughts of the 12z gfs coming true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ILM will have more snow on the year than Boone if the 00z GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The euro finally steps up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 My luck is incredible. Last year, I was able to come to Asheville in time for that awesome storm last January. This time, I'm still stuck in eastern NC for another two weeks so I have a chance to jackpot on this upcoming storm too. However, I also would feel good if I was in Asheville too. There are many possibilities what this storm could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Slightly discouraged by the trends for us this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Slightly discouraged by the trends for us this weekend. Huh? I'm not at all. Euro came around and is close to popping off a big storm. Being that we're roughly 4 days out, we are looking good considering the usual trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Huh? I'm not at all. Euro came around and is close to popping off a big storm. Being that we're roughly 4 days out, we are looking good considering the usual trends. Accidentally looked at the 12z Euro instead of the 0z. Still surprising to see double the snowfall in the eastern region of the state but I guess we will have to take what we can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Accidentally looked at the 12z Euro instead of the 0z. Still surprising to see double the snowfall in the eastern region of the state but I guess we will have to take what we can get at this point. Right, but this track is going change some given the amount if time until the event. At this stage it wouldn't surprise anyone for it to begin to trend N/NW. It usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Slightly discouraged by the trends for us this weekend. Trends were good last night on the Euro. WNC should be waking up feeling decent about the chance for snowfall this weekend. Less interaction with northern stream and bingo the Euro shows what we need. I like the trend now. EPS came back around somewhat as well too on the 0z run. 6z GFS suppresses and I think that is a good thing since it is really struggling with placement of 850h low.Oh and Joe thanks man! I love tracking these systems with you guys, it is a winter tradition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Hvward said: Trends were good last night on the Euro. WNC should be waking up feeling decent about the chance for snowfall this weekend. Less interaction with northern stream and bingo the Euro shows what we need. I like the trend now. EPS came back around somewhat as well too on the 0z run. 6z GFS suppresses and I think that is a good thing since it is really struggling with placement of 850h low. Oh and Joe thanks man! I love tracking these systems with you guys, it is a winter tradition! Yeah the euro bit so that's a huge positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Hvward said: Trends were good last night on the Euro. WNC should be waking up feeling decent about the chance for snowfall this weekend. Less interaction with northern stream and bingo the Euro shows what we need. I like the trend now. EPS came back around somewhat as well too on the 0z run. 6z GFS suppresses and I think that is a good thing since it is really struggling with placement of 850h low. Oh and Joe thanks man! I love tracking these systems with you guys, it is a winter tradition! 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the euro bit so that's a huge positive. There is absolutely no "trend" on the Euro. It's was one run. That's it. Every other run was stone solid with its heavy interaction with the northern stream. It also had 0 EPS support. Gotta have a couple of runs before you can call it a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Hvward said: Trends were good last night on the Euro. WNC should be waking up feeling decent about the chance for snowfall this weekend. Less interaction with northern stream and bingo the Euro shows what we need. I like the trend now. EPS came back around somewhat as well too on the 0z run. 6z GFS suppresses and I think that is a good thing since it is really struggling with placement of 850h low. Oh and Joe thanks man! I love tracking these systems with you guys, it is a winter tradition! EPS for AVL was not good at all. Of the 50 members, only 1 was above 6". The operational run was 7" for AVL, but the ensemble mean was less than 1". However, 06Z GEFS was 50/50 on measurable snow versus (literally) nothing. Fortunately we are still 5 days out. Expect many changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPS for AVL was not good at all. Of the 50 members, only 1 was above 6". The operational run was 7" for AVL, but the ensemble mean was less than 1". However, 06Z GEFS was 50/50 on measurable snow versus (literally) nothing. Fortunately we are still 5 days out. Expect many changes to come.Compared to the 12z EPS at KAVL the 0z EPS was an improvement. I expect many changes to come but the idea of less interaction with northern stream looks to be showing up on multiple models, GFS and Euro. We are still 5 days out, but a more elongated system like the Euro had showed seems to be less likely as of now. A NW correction on the GFS is likely imo and that would lend to more of an 0z Euro type solution. Like HT and other have said, lots of time for changes to happen.. I am just glad to be tracking a snowstorm finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 There is absolutely no "trend" on the Euro. It's was one run. That's it. Every other run was stone solid with its heavy interaction with the northern stream. It also had 0 EPS support. Gotta have a couple of runs before you can call it a trend. Overall model trend is what I was referring too. Less interaction with the northern stream is the overnight trend with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Hvward said: Trends were good last night on the Euro. WNC should be waking up feeling decent about the chance for snowfall this weekend. Less interaction with northern stream and bingo the Euro shows what we need. I like the trend now. EPS came back around somewhat as well too on the 0z run. 6z GFS suppresses and I think that is a good thing since it is really struggling with placement of 850h low. Oh and Joe thanks man! I love tracking these systems with you guys, it is a winter tradition! 15 minutes ago, Hvward said: Overall model trend is what I was referring too. Less interaction with the northern stream is the overnight trend with models. the bolded was what caused my little reaction though I do understand your point. NWS in areas already doubled the chance of snow just because of one OP Euro run, and was just making sure we didn't fall into the trap of over hyping one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 34 minutes ago, Hvward said: Overall model trend is what I was referring too. Less interaction with the northern stream is the overnight trend with models. At work, it's hard to look on my phone but how did the NAM look this morning in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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