• Member Statistics

    16,623
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    friday
    Newest Member
    friday
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
nchighcountrywx

2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yep a little under that here but absolutely needed. Still raining here this morning at abs good clip.

Should pickup even more rain tomorrow .  looks like another strong cutter for sun-Monday that should bring us plenty of rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Should pickup even more rain tomorrow .  looks like another strong cutter for sun-Monday that should bring us plenty of rain.

Yep bring it on! At this point in the game I would want rain over snow for at least the next two weeks. Looks good for storm after storm until the pattern shakes up to a colder one. Raining moderately this morning. Tonight and tomorrow should be good amounts also.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yep bring it on! At this point in the game I would want rain over snow for at least the next two weeks. Looks good for storm after storm until the pattern shakes up to a colder one. Raining moderately this morning. Tonight and tomorrow should be good amounts also.

I am with you; at this point I didn't care if it was in the 80's in December as long is it rained.  Not as much as I wanted out of this round of rain but extremely happy to see it and know there is more on the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, downeastnc said:

I have a place at Westgate there, not sure exactly what all is involved but the fire sounds fairly widespread, radar out of Knoxville shows decent returns in the area, at the least conditions seem more favorable for the fire slowing and being easier to control....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Per CNN, three Gatlinburg resorts have burned: Ober Gatlinburg, Black Bear Falls, and Westgate.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/29/us/gatlinburg-fires/index.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I just watched a video from a person standing at Ober and it survived.

Great to hear. Though the report I posted was from CNN, a vast amount of unconfirmed and blatantly untruthful information is spreading. As usual, Twitter and Facebook are ground zero.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Great to hear. Though the report I posted was from CNN, a vast amount of unconfirmed and blatantly untruthful information is spreading. As usual, Twitter and Facebook are ground zero.

ye, I understand the ways of the media completely lol. I was just making sure to correct false info before it spread even more. My facebook hasn't been too bad yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are two videos up on YouTube of the people driving through the inferno to save their lives.  With a language warning (expected for people fighting for the lives); not sure I could remain as calm as they did under the circumstances; the person driving the vehicle did a phenomenal job:

First video:

https://youtu.be/FMnkmlrJ9GA

Second video:

https://youtu.be/gE3tkb9idzo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I went through the 12z EURO on main thread for anyone curious. It stays frozen for most of the event. 

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 300 PM EST Tuesday... A closed low over north Mexico will generate a disturbance over Texas Saturday. Moisture from this disturbance will get caught in zonal flow and bring an increase in clouds over the region for the weekend. An area of dry high pressure will become anchored over the area keeping bulk of the moderate to heavy rain south across the Gulf states this weekend. On Monday, the closed low exits Mexico and enters the Midwest. This system will bring warm Gulf moisture over a lingering dry surface high Monday. Precipitation falling into this dry high will create an insitu wedge. Depending on the timing and availability of cold air, precipitation could start out as a light snow across the mountains, changing to rain over time. Both the GFS and ecm agree on this solution, but differ on timing, precipitation amount and p-type. The GFS has precipitation entering Monday whereas the ecm is Tuesday. For now, we will carry low pops for the area and a rain/snow mix for p-type mainly across the mountains.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picked up .72 with the first storm. Hoping for another half inch today if it can make it over the mountains. Ray mentioned something about the coldest air of the season coming in late next week. Be nice to see. Doesn't really feel like the Holiday season weather wise right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SnoJoe said:

Picked up .72 with the first storm. Hoping for another half inch today if it can make it over the mountains. Ray mentioned something about the coldest air of the season coming in late next week. Be nice to see. Doesn't really feel like the Holiday season weather wise right now.

Lol 65 this morning. We actually warmed up overnight. Looks like some cold air is coming but how cold is still up on the air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol 65 this morning. We actually warmed up overnight. Looks like some cold air is coming but how cold is still up on the air.

Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in.   Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in.   Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here.

Yeah I agree. New Euro is rolling in and man next week looks impressive for some extreme cold for this time of the year. Some true arctic air I would say. Looks great for some upslope snow also. Not so sure about this weekends event but at least we will get more rain which is exactly what we will get. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea I'm trying not to get excited about both this weekend and the amount of cold next week. a degree or two and it's all rain for this weekend and next week is just too far away from me to put chips in yet. looks promising though and I am hoping some cold comes. need to go skiing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This weekend looks moisture starved to me until it warms up enough for rain next week. The cold shot is looking more and more likely though and will be very impressive next Fri/Sat if the EURO is correct

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Yea I'm trying not to get excited about both this weekend and the amount of cold next week. a degree or two and it's all rain for this weekend and next week is just too far away from me to put chips in yet. looks promising though and I am hoping some cold comes. need to go skiing.

Well the low on the Euro goes through East TN which would dramatically pull in warmer air up the east side. I believe we have a very slim chance in my opinion but the Euro looks absolutely frigid next week with a great orientation to some great upslope snow for WNC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This weekend looks moisture starved to me until it warms up enough for rain next week. The cold shot is looking more and more likely though and will be very impressive next Fri/Sat if the EURO is correct

Yep very impressive for this time of the year. If this was January we wouldn't probably be looking at negative temps in the mountains . Still could if we get some snow on the ground . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think this will be a great winter for NWFS, most la ninas are

About 75% of our annual snow comes from NW flow. So I hope your right. It's been a couple of years since we have had an overnight NW flow setup to give us a foot of snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NWNC2015 said:

NWFS only produces wind snow in the northern foothills with little to no accumulation. Suppose there have been 1-75 year NWFS that do produce 1-2".

Yeah the moisture gets rung out over the mountains pretty fast. That's why the closer to the TN/NC boarder the better your chances. there is definitely a snow shadow towards the foothills . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Asheville is certainly on the fringe of NWFS; typically just a dusting.  I don't know how many times I saw it cloudy with snow flurries flying in downtown Asheville and looking south toward Hendersonville I could see the sun was out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Moonhowl said:

Asheville is certainly on the fringe of NWFS; typically just a dusting.  I don't know how many times I saw it cloudy with snow flurries flying in downtown Asheville and looking south toward Hendersonville I could see the sun was out.

Yep. shoot you get that here also. You have like 1/4 viability and then in town nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Front end mix still on the table...def. worth a chase if you wanna do some holiday shopping or looking for a Christmas tree this weekend in and around Boone. Travel shouldn't be too bad if 1-2" does occur I would expect it to be mostly on the grassy surfaces above 3,500ft. Probs are very high IMO for at least some wintry showers. Foothills...only looks cold enough as you go north-east into Wilkes/Surry...so don't expect much of anything southern/central foothills. Even here just a quick wintry mix to rain with a trace or dusting of mixture on elevated surfaces before melting. There may be a few mountain tops that see 2-4" but looks isolated at best and with much better chances of that in West Virginia. 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.