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Hurricane Hermine coming our way? The latest runs seem to think so...

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Posted this in the general thread as well... but given this maybe the most eventful weather we've seen since the blizzard I thought it deserved a dedicated thread.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The latest runs want us in the game... and they seem to have some consensus.

 

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Glenn has it close enough. Rain/some wind Sat night and a washout Sunday...more so closer to the coast. He also mentioned the blocking H to north which make Hermine come to a crawl.

Some storms tonight...some forming to my W currently with more later tonight.

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Seems to me today's slower frontal passage is having a butterfly effect on the tropical system ending up further east. Quicker building high pressure in the northeast would have given more blocking.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Seems to me today's slower frontal passage is having a butterfly effect on the tropical system ending up further east. Quicker building high pressure in the northeast would have given more blocking.

It is slower (thought it would be through by 8-9am) but still may pass through early enough for some good times and the system not too far east.

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12z GFS popcorn run for a Delaware Valley flood and coastal New Jersey destruction run to break the bore fest. Good to have something to watch.

 

 

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22 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Interesting that all the models including the Euro now have trended this way today. Hope my new grass comes up real soon (seeded it Sunday).

Kamu, I'll feel for you.  Last fall you could have set a clock to getting 1"+ rain a few days after putting down seed.  Took me 3-4 rounds of trying to finally get stuff to stay long enough to sprout.

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12z Euro demolishes the Jersey coast line, storm crawls loops stalls pitches a tent and spas itself in the obscene high SST waters then slowly drifts south and retires. 

 

 

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Thar she blows.

 

000
WTNT64 KNHC 011854
TCUAT4

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h).  Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

 

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Latest cone and warning/watches referred to in previous posts.

 

Very interesting, once it is up this way and loitering of the coast there looks to be potential for intensification...

 

Definitely shaping up as a potential issue for us locally.

 

J2lTn07.gif

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Saw the Hurricane statement -

 

Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-020500-

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  AL092016
449 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

**HERMINE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND
      SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN
      MONMOUTH...OCEAN...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE
      MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
      BURLINGTON

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND
      SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN
      MONMOUTH...OCEAN...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE
      MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
      BURLINGTON

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 1020 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ OR ABOUT 970
      MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DE
    - 27.8N 85.6W
    - STORM INTENSITY 70 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

HERMINE WILL BE AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HURRICANE HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY AND
STAYING OFF THE THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING
  HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE
  COASTAL PLAINS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE: - LOCALIZED RAINFALL
  FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS. - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
  MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,
  CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS. -
  FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN
  VULNERABLE SPOTS. RAPID PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR AT
  UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEVERAL
  STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO
  OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND., LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* WIND:
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS NEW
JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST
MARYLAND.. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
      MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS COULD
      BE BLOWN AROUND.
    - MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS MAY BE BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES COULD BE
      SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS MAY BE BLOWN
      OVER.
    - A FEW ROADS COULD BE IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
      CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
    - SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SURGE: LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
  NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST
  MARYLAND. HOWEVER...TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:IF YOU ARE EXCEPTIONALLY VULNERABLE TO WIND OR
  WATER HAZARDS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS, CONSIDER VOLUNTARY
  EVACUATION, ESPECIALLY IF BEING OFFICIALLY RECOMMENDED. RELOCATE
  TO A PREDETERMINED SHELTER OR SAFE DESTINATION.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK YOUR
  EMERGENCY PLAN AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE YOUR HOME OR
  BUSINESS. DELIBERATE EFFORTS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE
  AND PROPERTY. ENSURE THAT YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT IS STOCKED
  AND READY.

  VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD BECOME FAMILIAR WITH NEARBY
  SURROUNDINGS. IF YOU ARE A VISITOR, KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY
  IN WHICH YOU ARE LOCATED AND WHERE IT IS RELATIVE TO CURRENT
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IF STAYING AT A HOTEL, ASK THE MANAGEMENT
  STAFF ABOUT THEIR ON SITE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR EVACUATION
  ORDERS, ESPECIALLY PERTAINING TO AREA VISITORS.

  CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
  FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
  THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ AROUND 8 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

Am trying to remember if I've ever seen that before. We usually get remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms fairly regularly but since there is a holiday coming up, I think this might be good to give folks a heads-up going to the shore given that Labor Day weekend is usually the last hurrah for many shore town businesses.

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9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Yet another 12z Euro disaster run for the Jersey coast, worse then yesterdays run. ECM headed for an epic win or lose here.

 

 

It looks like the 12Z GFS wants to keep this thing hanging around for awhile. Say goodbye to the beaches. 

 

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Quite frankly I can't believe I wasted so much time on a non-winter storm when there was little hope to begin with? May need medication....

Give me an Eagles 3-1 start and I'll be fine.

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38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

^The 8am Sun to 8am Wed on the map above is comical. The damn thing doesn't move than a worm/crippled frog ...

The models seem to have some consensus in that respect... really hope this doesn't verify, well things likely won't be bad here... people along the coast could be in for some potentially history making weather.

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Do the GFDL and NGP have any credibility in regards to these types of situations? 6Z runs would be extremely bad for NJ. The GFDL goes as far as to intensify the system to sub 978mb while drifting WNW and making a "landfall" near Wildwood. NGP is similar but a bit farther South....still stalls the system for days though.

GFDL as a 981mb:

gfdl_mslp_wind_09L_8.png

 

NGP:

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_6.png

Thoughts? Is this going to get 'captured' and tugged back to the coast or are we safe?

 

Thanks.

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