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ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

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DMI volume is a bit suspect....I'd prob use PIOMAS and then definitely Cryosat2 when that updates more fully later this spring.

PIOMAS has volume currently 5th lowest. Still low, but not dead last like DMI. 2017 is pretty far alone in last place at this point.

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13 minutes ago, lee59 said:

It has been so cold up north this winter, the Bering Sea ice extent is actually within the normal range of the 1981-2010 median.

Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.

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On 2/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, bdgwx said:

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

2050 sounds about right.

I think most are getting more worried about the Antarctic because of the implications of a rapid ice melt there.

My question is- do we really need an outlier winter like this to get ice growth in the Arctic regions?  Very few winters are going to have a + AO like this winter has had.

 

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On 2/19/2020 at 12:48 PM, forkyfork said:

export pattern for the next week +

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNormMean_nhem_1.pngecmwf-ens_mslpaNormMean_nhem_6.png

 

from the sea ice forum:

 

ascat-feb21-27g.gif

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Definitely some export going on there. We are now at that time of year when the max could occur at anytime.

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This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

early 90s were very similar.... but we had a solar maximum back then and a solar minimum now?

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On 3/6/2020 at 6:39 PM, etudiant said:

No expert, but am struck how closely the recent Arctic ice area is tracking the 2012 values. See:  https://cryospherecomputing.tk

May just be coincidence, but perhaps an early indication of history repeating.

I'm thinking that we are going back into a similar pattern wrt to our next few summers also (and next year will be near the peak of the 11 yr solar cycle of very hot summers.)

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March 5 with a 5d average of 15.047 on NSIDC might be the max. I'd give greater than 50% odds at this point. We'll see.

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On 1/24/2020 at 10:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter. 

N_iqr_timeseries.png

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On 2/3/2020 at 2:49 PM, Weatherdude88 said:

forkyfork,

Instead of being pessimistic and ‘butt hurt’ by data showing the most sea ice in 15 years, perhaps you will find the use of your time more constructive, if you have a mind set of optimism, about a possible sea ice recovery for this year (I predict 2020 will be a recovery year).

Current projections, using average melting seasons from the historical NSIDC sea ice extent data set, give us a minimum between 4.8 - 5.0 millions of square kilometers for the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum (This would be quite the recovery). 

how's this looking now

N_iqr_timeseries.png

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as soon as the winter PV pattern ended the ice collapsed back to normal

 

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

as soon as the winter PV pattern ended the ice collapsed back to normal

The 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts don't look too pretty either. So much for a big recovery.

RIP to climate change deniers. 

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Arctic ice area seems to be following about the same trend as 2016. That suggests a minimum extent around 12 MM square km ,  somewhere close to a record low.

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15 hours ago, etudiant said:

Arctic ice area seems to be following about the same trend as 2016. That suggests a minimum extent around 12 MM square km ,  somewhere close to a record low.

Too early to get a good handle on the low. We need to wait until mid/late June.

Jaxa (and Area) at this point in 2012 was higher than 1996 (the highest min year on record).

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On 2/6/2020 at 5:11 AM, Weatherdude88 said:

Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.

V8WI6RG.png

 

The snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.

dkT3eII.png

 

The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it.

oEClvaH.png

 

As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.

We may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

oops

 

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I haven't posted here in a long time because the Arctic sea ice forum is way more active. 

 

And because the Arctic has hit a wall in Spring with all of the anomalous factors that have lead to the ice change the last couple of decades.

 

Part of it is because the pattern hasn't  seen a June dipole/sun bath since 2012.

The recent essentially record warm/anomalous ridge was incredible.

And for a few days Arctic sea ice albedo really dropped over a large portion of the basin.

However as soon as the pattern changed the ice surface couldn't retain it's wetness.  It has refroze.  Not all the way back to before the ridge but quite a bit.

This tells me that solar altitude cannot overcome dry snow/ice albedo in middle of May.

 

Which means in the future in order to get the powerful solar insolation to actually kick start the melt season in middle May will require ambient conditions to be warmer to reinforce the solar insolation

Like snow cover melt happening 1-2 weeks earlier than it ever has along the Arctic Arctic coast and river Delta's opening up earlier as well.

This would allow the near surface lower troposphere to warm quite a bit faster than it currently does.

Essentially to get a record this summer we will have to go back to a highly anomalous dipole. 

The CAA has been spared for a while. 

Anyways right now everything is set up for a potential record Ice loss summer thanks to the UNBELIEVABLE RIDGE that rolled through the basin.

 

 

North_AWP_Graph1.png

ao.sprd2.gif

meanT_2020.png

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On 9/11/2019 at 3:51 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

Time to verify this prediction based on the data at the end of June.

 

Assuming we have reached the minimums for both area and extent on 9/4 (looking more and more likely), then both of these fell outside my range, albeit not by much. The final minimum area was 2.87 million sq km and the final minimum extent was 4.23 million sq km. These are both NSIDC numbers. The predictions were looking excellent through mid-August until we had an unprecedented slowdown in late August that has leaked into early September. So I ended up making predictions that were slightly too low compared to reality.

 

I was correct in identifying the very strong chance of a top 3 finish (and also being skeptical of challenging the top spot), but I really needed to bump my middle numbers in the range up about 100-200k. Overall, I think this was a decent prediction compared to what we see on the Arctic Sea Ice outlook that gets published by NSIDC....but I am still disappointed I could not get it within my range. It might be that 200k error bars are just too small to consistently hit on predictions when it comes to sea ice. Using 400k error bars would have this method hit every year I've done it with the exception of 2016. But I will probably try to continue to use 200k error bars....and maybe see where the method can be improved.

Time to bump the sea ice tracking for 2020....we're coming off last year's top 3 finish for both area (3rd lowest) and extent (2nd lowest).

2020 is off to a slower start than 2019 was, so it will need to catch up some more to get into contention. 2020 started off fast in May with extensive meltponding (most on record), but that trend reversed near the end of the month and early June when extensive refreezing of melt ponds caused the area to stall. We've been falling faster again recently.

For those who follow this thread regularly, you know I like to track NSIDC area in late June because it is the most accurate predictor of minimum area/extent later in the season. Here is where we currently stand on area vs other years (i.e. 2019 had 250k less area than this year on this date)

2019: -250k

2018: +300k

2017: +230k

2016: -150k

2015: +90k

2014: +340k

2013: +390k

2012: -600k

2011: +120k

2010: +150k

2009: +860k

2008: +410k

2007: +10k

 

 

As you can see, we're running somewhat low in the post-2007 world, but not as low as several years. You'll also note that some years like 2011 which finished very low were not standing out yet. There is still time for things to change in either direction which is why I usually start tracking closely in mid-June through the end of the month when I make a prediction based on the month-end values.
 

There is currently a hostile pattern over the arctic for the ice which is aiding some big numbers right now, but the forecast looks to go toward a reverse dipole pattern by the end of the week and stay there all of the next week if ensemble guidance is correct....so that would likely slow down the losses. I'll update this tracker every few days until month-end....probably doing daily updates in a final few days of the month.

 

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I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth.  Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June.  Normals are only around 70/50.  Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps:  189 degrees (99F to -90F).

 

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Massive losses in area from the dipole pattern that just happened.....we now only trail 2012 for lowest area on this date.

2007 and 2010 (and to a lesser extent 2016 and 2019) lose huge area though over the next week, so the question is whether we can stay in the top 3 or top 5 as the weather goes to a reverse dipole over the arctic basin.

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On 6/19/2020 at 10:34 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Massive losses in area from the dipole pattern that just happened.....we now only trail 2012 for lowest area on this date.

2007 and 2010 (and to a lesser extent 2016 and 2019) lose huge area though over the next week, so the question is whether we can stay in the top 3 or top 5 as the weather goes to a reverse dipole over the arctic basin.

We've slowed down recently from the reverse dipole.....2020 now trails 2019, 2012, 2010, and 2007. Though not by huge amounts, so a top 3 melt season is still very much possible. We'll see if the area losses pick back up as the reverse dipole weakens.

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On 6/16/2020 at 3:10 PM, beavis1729 said:

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth.  Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June.  Normals are only around 70/50.  Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps:  189 degrees (99F to -90F).

 

Did you read about this incredible heat and forest fires in Siberia?  They've been +20 F in heat for like six months now and just hit 100 F- first time ever north of the arctic circle!

Unprecedented heat in Siberia which the media isn't really talking about.

I've noticed hotter temps occurring farther north this year, seems like the attic fire that started in the high Arctic has spread farther south and has now reached northern VT and Maine with temps approaching 100 there, all time records.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1274880733052469249

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1274757559216476160

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 3052469249


that has videos of the fires in northern Siberia

here is the official record of the 100.4 temp at Verhoyansk

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/stat ... 9216476160

 

We've already seen the negative effects of a snowless winter here......nasty explosion of bugs this year, with a horde of gnats near my Poconos home that makes working in my garden impossible.  I thought it was just this community but when I went down the mountain to a nearby town, they were mobbing people there too!  I've also had to spray bug barrier throughout my other home on Long Island, where I now have wolf spiders along with their eggs (eek), I saw one in my bedroom and could not sleep there for a week!  They are hairy, with warning stripes on their legs, black and grey (to warn others of being poisonous) and I haven't had these in a decade or so.  I sprayed so much bug barrier to get rid of them that my throat and nose were burning!  I just hope I dont get any centipedes later on, because I haven't had them in a long time either.....it's the combo of a warm wet winter followed by a warm wet spring and now this hot humid weather that has caused this population explosion of bugs.  I wish all the birds I get in both gardens would eat them all up, but they seem to be content singing and taking baths in my pond!  We also have a 50% reduction in monarch butterflies (an important pollinator) because of pesticides killing their favorite food, milkweed, as well as the changing climate.  But now everyone is planting milkweed along the roads and highways, so maybe they will have a comeback?

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