NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[Stormlover74]

That's not what we're saying however it does seem to be what's happening at the moment. Will it hold? probably not. Is this the correct solution? who knows. But are you that confident in the Euro when its the outlier right now? Again everyone is entitled to their opinions here, nobody knows the answer or has a crystal ball to predict the future. I hope you are right and the Euro stays the same and all the models follow it, I think we all do! :-)

OK, so 100-126 out we expect all models to come into agreement, is that what you are saying?

Also, the GFS ens shifted well west as well. Look, I am not saying he is incorrect, I just think with the majority of the models shifting west a good bit I wouldn't expect the Euro to come in line, but meh, that's JMHO and I am no met, so take MO for what it's worth.

[SACRUS]

Not to nitpick but soundings show .13" for NYC off the 12z GFS.

Thanks - I meant to write 0.15"..

[NJHurricane]

I agree with this.. However

If Mr. Euro holds his ground... Well then.. It's on like donkey kong and I would like to see the 0z runs come in closer...

I will add.. I have no basis for this EXCEPT my gut feelin'

we don't need gut feelings...analysis please or posts will be deleted like this one has been.

[Kevin Druff]

LMAO, that brings back some memories. OK OK, back on topic.

Yes, it does. It's funny, all I could think of after reading your posts was the **** talking, and the glaring it used to produce, that used to go on in her room afternoons at practice.

[hazwoper]

That's not what we're saying however it does seem to be what's happening at the moment. Will it hold? probably not. Is this the correct solution? who knows. But are you that confident in the Euro when its the outlier right now? Again everyone is entitled to their opinions here, nobody knows the answer or has a crystal ball to predict the future. I hope you are right and the Euro stays the same and all the models follow it, I think we all do! :-)

I don't know, ofcourse it has just as much of a chance now heading east as it does standing pat. Shoot, it could track the low over the big cities for all we know. I guess what I was saying is everything just shifted a good 200-400 miles toward the solution the EURO has had the past 2 runs (maybe more runs I don't recall) and in my mind that is a good indicater that the other models were hitting the pipe a bit too hard these last several runs.

[pazzo83]

Yes, it does. It's funny, all I could think of after reading your posts was the **** talking, and the glaring it used to produce, that used to go on in her room afternoons at practice.

Ah those were the days

[snowman21]

Forecast POPs are not model uncertainties. They are based off of coverage. Using your example, 50% chance of snow means 50% of that area will receive snow.

Not sure about that. According to the NWS Operations Manual C-11 Section 8.3.1 it states that a POP forecast represents "the likelihood of occurrence, expressed as a percent, of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area within a clearly stated time period." This was taken from noaa.gov. Perhaps it could be different depending on the WFO or region.

[A-L-E-X]

OK, so 100-126 out we expect all models to come into agreement, is that what you are saying?

Also, the GFS ens shifted well west as well. Look, I am not saying he is incorrect, I just think with the majority of the models shifting west a good bit I wouldn't expect the Euro to come in line, but meh, that's JMHO and I am no met, so take MO for what it's worth.

Well, if we're going to grade things from the way they look from this far out, it appears the GFS was "more wrong" than the EURO was if you take both their 0z solutions from last night. What that means going forward remains to be seen.

[OSU2]

well bottom line is no one can really predict how a model is going to come out before its even initialized...so we're all just basing it on gut anyway. part of my gut has a tendency to expect disappointment from the models as a means of protection. but the Euro has been the western extreme and is not infallible...so all I'm saying is we shouldn't be surprised if it continues to back off its HECS scenario a bit. Even if it does, we're all still very much in the game for at least a light to moderate event seeing as we're still a good 4-5 days out. plenty of time for things to shift one way or another.

Well said.

I have been playing it conservative throughout and until I see better model agreement, that is how I would play it.

Plenty of players on the field here with energy ejecting out of the West Coast. I can't say for sure who is handling what correctly at this point.

Timing of course is going to be huge for phasing.

I will say this, if you look at the GFS 24 hours ago and look at it now, very big difference aloft and at the surface. That could be the typical model bias error but don't know that for sure.

The EURO used to be king when showing a big hit on multiple runs but these days it has had its issues. The 12Z Run will be interesting.

The good news is, there is still time to get into specfics. As long as you are informing who you are forecasting of the potential and the uncertainity, then you are doing your job.

The Next 24-36 should help in determining what is real and what is fantasy as the energy gets into the better model coverage area.

Just some thoughts!

ERIC

[NaoPos]

time for a new thread?

[pazzo83]

Alright tombo, you ready to do your thing?

[earthlight]

[A-L-E-X]

That's not what we're saying however it does seem to be what's happening at the moment. Will it hold? probably not. Is this the correct solution? who knows. But are you that confident in the Euro when its the outlier right now? Again everyone is entitled to their opinions here, nobody knows the answer or has a crystal ball to predict the future. I hope you are right and the Euro stays the same and all the models follow it, I think we all do! :-)

Yea the Euro was/still is the western outlier, but it appears the GFS last night was "more wrong" than the Euro was-- what this means in the future, remains to be seen.

[tombo82685]

john you wanna start a new thread so we can start fresh with the euro

[eduggs]

Earthlight those ensemble members are finally starting to look like I'd want to see them.

[KEITH L.I]

wow..big change since 0z..many hits..I think 0z had one..lol

[earthlight]