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NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2


forkyfork

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That confluence gets really far south into the Mid-Atlantic and really surpresses the H5 flow. Does anybody have a height comparison over the East coast between the ECM and NAM? I'd pull it up myself but I'm on a phone.

There are regions of confluent height lines all over the charts. I always interpret this to mean NW flow and low heights on the backside of a deep low. And yes, it has been getting slightly worse with successive model runs :thumbsdown: It's kind of sickening actually. You can't ask for too much more with the western ridge and approaching s/w.

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There are regions of confluent height lines all over the charts. I always interpret this to mean NW flow and low heights on the backside of a deep low. And yes, it has been getting slightly worse with successive model runs :thumbsdown: It's kind of sickening actually. You can't ask for too much more with the western ridge and approaching s/w.

Well the confluent flow and energy is going to phase into the trough--that's not what totally concerns me. What's more concerning is how this phase seems to be occurring further east than it was over the past few days. That gives us less wiggle room.

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Wes never mentioned any comparison to the Euro, when you compare it, it looks exactly the same.

Surprisingly nice overlay match on the plymouth site at NAM hr 60. Only noticeable differences are slightly lower heights on Euro over the Dakotas and Minn. Can't see hr 72 but it looks pretty close. Nerve racking to wait for rapid height rise and pinwheeling of 700mb at last minute.

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Surprisingly nice overlay match on the plymouth site at NAM hr 60. Only noticeable differences are slightly lower heights on Euro over the Dakotas and Minn. Can't see hr 72 but it looks pretty close. Nerve racking to wait for rapid height rise and pinwheeling of 700mb at last minute.

Those are very important in getting the phase up to happen quickly enough to tug this up the coast.

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Confluence is stronger. The northern stream heights are phasing in much slower as well. The shortwave may be trending slower, but the general upper air trends over the past day or so are extremely concerning to me.

I don't think the amount of confluence matters way back on hr 54. That's why we want this thing to be slower anyway, so it has a chance to break down the confluence.

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Yeah definitely quite a bit slower, agreed.

Are you concerned as well? Over the past day or so we have seen some very significant changes specifically with the northern stream. The lower heights and shortwave over the Northern Plains that are coming into the trough are taking much longer to do so on every run the past day or so. Take the GFS for example. Last nights 00z run had the low heights already into the northern plains with the shortwave well west of the MS. The Euro pulls it off..but it's upper air pattern is close to letting the storm escape if the northern stream doesn't fly south into the trough. The slower northern stream is causing the slower amplification of the trough and capture of the surface low..and that has me concerned because it significantly narrows the window of opportunity for a major coastal storm.

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I don't think the amount of confluence matters way back on hr 54. That's why we want this thing to be slower anyway, so it has a chance to break down the confluence.

Also think that because that was our concern with a couple of the big ones last season and we saw the confluence break down in time to allow the turn up towards N Mid Atlantic a lot of people are assuming it will be the same this time...and until modeled differently across the entire suite of a given run I guess that is not an unreasonable assumption...I share earthlight's concern though

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Are you concerned as well? Over the past day or so we have seen some very significant changes specifically with the northern stream. The lower heights and shortwave over the Northern Plains that are coming into the trough are taking much longer to do so on every run the past day or so. Take the GFS for example. Last nights 00z run had the low heights already into the northern plains with the shortwave well west of the MS. The Euro pulls it off..but it's upper air pattern is close to letting the storm escape if the northern stream doesn't fly south into the trough. The slower northern stream is causing the slower amplification of the trough and capture of the surface low..and that has me concerned because it significantly narrows the window of opportunity for a major coastal storm.

I'm concerned too. Too another look at the 72-84 850mb charts on the NAM and there is no southerly component to the flow in the SE. Regardless of any similarities to the Euro, I don't see how that extrapolated comes up the coast. Obviously curious to see how the rest of the suite plays out, but def not feeling confident.

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