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Tropical Storm Colin Headed to Florida


NWNC2015
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It all looks but for certain some flooding rains and wind are headed to Florida. Uncertainty exists upon exit with coastal issues for the South-East becoming possible. Waves and rip currents at least, but possibly squally weather could occur up the South-East coasts. I will have LIVE reporting on the South-East coast if conditions warrant a trip to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina! 

 

at201693_ensmodel.gif

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Ok sorry for the mby question but my family and I are down here outside of Georgetown sc. Are we looking at a major cane or have a couple of drinks and everything is good? I just don't have access to weather maps down here. Thanks

Doubt it,the storm will probably be extra tropical as it heads off the South Ga/N/FL coast,the strongest winds by the models will be to the E/SE part of the storm 

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Need to watch the EURO closely when it makes a hurricane it's not as loony as the CMC. Same general area where Bonnie reformed and strengthened despite cooler ocean temps. It does this despite going inland over Waycross, GA....so that tells me if it were to emerge straight into the Atlantic after Florida like the GFS does...you could see a strengthening storm paralleling Myrtle Beach and the OBX sooner.

 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

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Need to watch the EURO closely when it makes a hurricane it's not as loony as the CMC. Same general area where Bonnie reformed and strengthened despite cooler ocean temps. It does this despite going inland over Waycross, GA....so that tells me if it were to emerge straight into the Atlantic after Florida like the GFS does...you would have a fairly strong storm paralleling Myrtle Beach and the OBX.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

It looks to be extratropical at that point.

Surprised you haven't said anything about the tornado potential for Florida when conditions like you were hyping it for Bonnie. :lol:

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It looks to be extratropical at that point.

Surprised you haven't said anything about the tornado potential for Florida when conditions like you were hyping it for Bonnie. :lol:

 

Didn't hype it just posted the solution IF the HWRF was right with a 60mph Tropical Storm and it going inland to at least Charlotte. Neither happened. I will also being posting solutions for Florida that models show that may not even happen. Just like with winter weather, different solutions win out over others even 12 hours out but we still discuss it.

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Well hello there :)

As far as the forecast goes... It really could not be more straightforward. Probably a 50 MPH TS just north of Tampa Tuesday morning, then riding just off the coast and out to sea.

 

It's not that straightforward for some of the hard hit areas from Bonnie...could be nothing to fairly significant squally weather that could cause flooding easily.

 

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Possible.

But being be the large trough axis running up through the Gom and the deep convection of TD possible to have a board low with multiple smaller lp. But looking at satellite I'm willing to bet near the flare up the is a lp center. But it's a lope sided system so any TD conditions are in the complex of storms. But only way to tell is recon. But right now I do agree the trigger pull early. But the again hard to ATM with a board multi lp system.

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Possible.

But being be the large trough axis running up through the Gom and the deep convection of TD possible to have a board low with multiple smaller lp. But looking at satellite I'm willing to bet near the flare up the is a lp center. But it's a lope sided system so any TD conditions are in the complex of storms. But only way to tell is recon. But right now I do agree the trigger pull early. But the again hard to ATM with a board multi lp system.

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Looks like it's heading right towards here with Tropical Storm Warnings out for Wakulla County just south of her along the Gulf Coast. I'm looking forward to the rain. It's been way too hot and dry lately.

 

Hey Neighbor!

 

Ragged mess, but if history is any indication, a couple of these in June/July seem to "clean out" the atmosphere for August/September (no science, just observation and recollection) - let's hope that's the case as later in the year storms can be a very real bad thing in N. Fla.

 

Best,

 

Phil

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