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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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Another warm month no surprise here. Growth is weeks ahead of last year. Still expect +5 to +6 when all is said and done due to another strong warm up. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 80 or two pop up.

Euro is pumping that ridge in the east by the end of the run.

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2015-16 was 9.3 degree higher for Dec/Jan/Feb than 2014-15...March could be +9 over last years average...This is not a record but close...1879-80 was +9.3 over 1878-79...1880-81 was -11.9 from 1879-80...

1918-19 was +10.9 over 1917-18...

1936-37 was + 9.6 over 1935-36...

2002-03 was -10.3 from 2001-02...

 

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2015-16 was 9.3 degree higher for Dec/Jan/Feb than 2014-15...March could be +9 over last years average...This is not a record but close...1879-80 was +9.3 over 1878-79...1880-81 was -11.9 from 1879-80...

1918-19 was +10.9 over 1917-18...

1936-37 was + 9.6 over 1935-36...

2002-03 was -10.3 from 2001-02...

 

Yeah, and JFK has nearly the same amount of snow as last year despite the much warmer winter.

 

14-15....44.1"

15-16....40.9"

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Major cave by the GFS. If you look at what's going on at H5, this tells you all you need to know. The surface low track will follow the jet stream. Here at hour 108 you can see an intensifying jet streak just off the Delmarva.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

 

Six hours later and that same strengthening jet streak is South of LI and attempting to close off.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png

 

Then six hours later it's in the Gulf of Maine.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

 

What this tells me is that the eventual surface low track should be from right on the Delmarva Coast, to just off the NJ coast, to right over or very near the BM.

 

Right now the surface is not catching up to what's going on aloft, but I suspect it will over the next few days.

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Looking upstream not much in the way of any noticeable shortwave kickers that could screw this up. The main wildcard is if a disturbance pinwheels out of the low off the PAC NW and knocks the western ridge down. Overall though it looks like it would happen too late. I think at worst this is a near miss (or at best if you're a snow hater)

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One thing I will say, if this ends up working out, and the area receives a significant snowstorm, all of the ingredients will be on the table for significant flooding towards the end of next week with reservoirs near capacity, a significant snowpack and the potential for areas to reach well into the 50's if not 60's by the middle of the week.

 

gfs_T2m_neus_30.png

 

And we have at least one cutter coming behind this, if not two as the SE ridge reloads.

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