wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Even the NAVGEM which is traditionally always weak and East tracks the low over land. Thanks for the jma,only loaded to hour 72 floor some reason before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Even the NAVGEM which is traditionally always weak and East tracks the low over land. Its a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 12z EPS mean tracks the low near Binghampton. Adding up the individual panels and taking an average it looks like mostly everyone is around 3" of rain. I'm officially excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 12z EPS mean tracks the low near Binghampton. Adding up the individual panels and taking an average it looks like mostly everyone is around 3" of rain. I'm officially excited. that's amazing for a fairly fast moving system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Its a hugger. When I said land I meant SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Frozen ground runoff special for the areas that get the heaviest rain along with the high wind threat. Still having about 6 inches of snow here on the ground-that will be vaporized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 12z EPS mean tracks the low near Binghampton. Adding up the individual panels and taking an average it looks like mostly everyone is around 3" of rain. I'm officially excited. if it was april or may i would get excited about a 3 inch windy rainstorm.. but not at this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 12z EPS mean tracks the low near Binghampton. Adding up the individual panels and taking an average it looks like mostly everyone is around 3" of rain. I'm officially excited. I'm more excited for the wind, though nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 if it was april or may i would get excited about a 3 inch windy rainstorm.. but not at this time of year... on the plus side, we are maintaining a stormy pattern. One or two of these could be snow going forward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 that's amazing for a fairly fast moving system The jet cranks overhead and the system just dumps. Moisture transport from the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still having about 6 inches of snow here on the ground-that will be vaporized That's going to add to the run off and the flooding threat. There is still some patchy snow around here but it's mostly just the leftover piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Certain areas might actually be in trouble this time around. Several reservoirs are over 90% capacity. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Certain areas might actually be in trouble this time around. Several reservoirs are over 90% capacity. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml here in manhattan we have storm drains in most sidewalks or streets so the water goes down the drain no problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 here in manhattan we have storm drains in most sidewalks or streets so the water goes down the drain no problems Clearly I wasn't referring to NYC proper, however flooded subways aren't completely out of the question with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 if it was april or may i would get excited about a 3 inch windy rainstorm.. but not at this time of year... Really there is nothing good about a rainy windy noreaster. I hope this thing finds a way to weaken. Love the snow, but rain I prefer in regular doses without wind to avoid drought and keep the garden watered. Other than that I have no use for wind damage and flooding. Is there a chance this storm will weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You guys are speaking about the wind threat... how bad does that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Really there is nothing good about a rainy windy noreaster. I hope this thing finds a way to weaken. Love the snow, but rain I prefer in regular doses without wind to avoid drought and keep the garden watered. Other than that I have no use for wind damage and flooding. Is there a chance this storm will weaken? Pretty much every model other than the Euro has this as nothing significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM has a weak 1009 low up to Binghamton. Snow to rain for the region. 1-3 inches before the changeover verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM has a week 1009 low up to Binghamton. Snow to rain for the region 1-3" for most washed away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 1-3" for most washed away agree...lol at the NAM VS the Euro, whats a 24 MB pressure difference at the same time amongst friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know the CRAS model sucks and I usually post about it tougue-in-cheek, but the CRAS from 12Z looks alot like the NAM with a weak and strung out surface slp (even weaker than NAM and implies little if any changeover to plain rain for many). This is VERY odd for the CRAS because it overamplifies 99% of these storm systems....almost always has these systems very wrapped up. It's really odd that this one isn't following suit. Red flag?? Could the NAM actually be the closest to reality at this hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Toss the NAM. It's transitioning to a more amplified solution. I'm sure by Monday morning it will be showing 6" of rain. See all the different low pressures here? The NAM is in LOL range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know the CRAS model sucks and I usually post about it tougue-in-cheek, but the CRAS from 12Z looks alot like the NAM with a weak and strung out surface slp (even weaker than NAM and implies little if any changeover to plain rain for many). This is VERY odd for the CRAS because it overamplifies 99% of these storm systems....almost always has these systems very wrapped up. It's really odd that this one isn't following suit. Red flag?? Could the NAM actually be the closest to reality at this hour? Have you actually looked at the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Have you actually looked at the 18z NAM? Yep, strung out waves of LP, almost like a stationary front with weak impulses riding along it. Not impossible though also not very likely. Probably it's higher resolution causing fits. Though who's the say with that pig ridge out in the Atlantic this isnt realistic, ie, the front stalling as depicted? edit: imho, we are losing the idea of one well-defined strong slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Pretty much every model other than the Euro has this as nothing significant That's because the Euro was the only model that tracking the surface low that far West. In order to get into the stronger winds, I think the surface low has to track up the DE river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, strung out waves of LP, almost like a stationary front with weak impulses riding along it. Not impossible though also not very likely. Probably it's higher resolution causing fits. The point is, even that "strung out mess" shows a flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The point is, even that "strung out mess" shows a flip to rain. No denying this verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's because the Euro was the only model that tracking the surface low that far West. In order to get into the stronger winds, I think the surface low has to track up the DE river valley. The euro has been pretty consistent with its solution. While in the end it may be a bit more east, I think it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro has been pretty consistent with its solution. While in the end it may be a bit more east, I think it has the right idea. It almost will definitely end up east, only about 1 in 100 lows take a track like that, it's been about 7-8 years since I last remember one doing so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One thing I am noting on guidance today is that HP is trying to build in more rapidly right behind this storm. Granted it doesnt appear as an arctic airmass but maybe just cold enough? There is more of a squeeze play happening with HP trying to rush in from the West, the front itself, and HP to the East with the pig 500mb ridge out in the Atlantic showing stronger each run. Sorry for my crappy artwork: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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