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Possible 2/16 storm threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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The 12z EPS mean tracks the low near Binghampton. Adding up the individual panels and taking an average it looks like mostly everyone is around 3" of rain. I'm officially excited. 

if it was april or may i would get excited about a 3 inch windy rainstorm.. but not at this time of year...

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if it was april or may i would get excited about a 3 inch windy rainstorm.. but not at this time of year...

Really there is nothing good about a rainy windy noreaster. I hope this thing finds a way to weaken. Love the snow, but rain I prefer in regular doses without wind to avoid drought and keep the garden watered. Other than that I have no use for wind damage and flooding. Is there a chance this storm will weaken?

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Really there is nothing good about a rainy windy noreaster. I hope this thing finds a way to weaken. Love the snow, but rain I prefer in regular doses without wind to avoid drought and keep the garden watered. Other than that I have no use for wind damage and flooding. Is there a chance this storm will weaken?

Pretty much every model other than the Euro has this as nothing significant

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I know the CRAS model sucks and I usually post about it tougue-in-cheek, but the CRAS from 12Z looks alot like the NAM with a weak and strung out surface slp (even weaker than NAM and implies little if any changeover to plain rain for many). This is VERY odd for the CRAS because it overamplifies 99% of these storm systems....almost always has these systems very wrapped up. It's really odd that this one isn't following suit. Red flag?? Could the NAM actually be the closest to reality at this hour?

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I know the CRAS model sucks and I usually post about it tougue-in-cheek, but the CRAS from 12Z looks alot like the NAM with a weak and strung out surface slp (even weaker than NAM and implies little if any changeover to plain rain for many). This is VERY odd for the CRAS because it overamplifies 99% of these storm systems....almost always has these systems very wrapped up. It's really odd that this one isn't following suit. Red flag?? Could the NAM actually be the closest to reality at this hour?

Have you actually looked at the 18z NAM?

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28.png

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Have you actually looked at the 18z NAM?

 

 

Yep, strung out waves of LP, almost like a stationary front with weak impulses riding along it. Not impossible though also not very likely. Probably it's higher resolution causing fits. Though who's the say with that pig ridge out in the Atlantic this isnt realistic, ie, the front stalling as depicted?

 

edit: imho, we are losing the idea of one well-defined strong slp. 

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That's because the Euro was the only model that tracking the surface low that far West. In order to get into the stronger winds, I think the surface low has to track up the DE river valley.

The euro has been pretty consistent with its solution.  While in the end it may be a bit more east, I think it has the right idea.

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One thing I am noting on guidance today is that HP is trying to build in more rapidly right behind this storm. Granted it doesnt appear as an arctic airmass but maybe just cold enough? There is more of a squeeze play happening with HP trying to rush in from the West, the front itself, and HP to the East with the pig 500mb ridge out in the Atlantic showing stronger each run. 

 

Sorry for my crappy artwork:

 

post-4298-0-54259300-1455312163_thumb.pn

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