IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS quite a bit snowier this run. Nice front end thump for the western part of this forum. Perhaps an inch or two on the front end, then over to heavy rain very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Perhaps an inch or two on the front end, then over to heavy rain very quickly. Still way east of 06.. Anyone expecting all snow here is in for a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The surface low is going to track either right over NJ or just offshore. NYC is close to 50 degrees by 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Perhaps an inch or two on the front end, then over to heavy rain very quickly. Looks more like maybe 2-3 inches to me, but yeah, then flips straight to rain afterwards. Still enough for people to enjoy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still way east of 06.. Anyone expecting all snow here is in for a disappointment I wouldn't expect any snow in this setup. The initial precip is WAA driven and the mid-levels warm quickly. I think any Wintry precip on the front end would be IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I wouldn't expect any snow in this setup. The initial precip is WAA driven and the mid-levels warm quickly. I think any Wintry precip on the front end would be IP/ZR. Right my point tho is the GFS came almost 100 miles east with the heaviest snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks more like maybe 2-3 inches to me, but yeah, then flips straight to rain afterwards. Still enough for people to enjoy, though. It's a few inches for the interior. An inch or two for the coast. Less than in inch for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This storm has the potential of being a prolific rain and wind maker for the area. It also has the potential to bring some Wintry weather, especially for inland locations. If the trailing shortwave can catch up and close off at H5 and the waterfall would commence. I think that is what the Canadian is showing....has 3+ inches of QPF right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Front end dump totals, everyone here is rain after this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think that is what the Canadian is showing....has 3+ inches of QPF right over us GGEM is way weaker and colder, north of 84 never rains completely on the Canadian, heavy mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's a few inches for the interior. An inch or two for the coast. Less than in inch for LI. With how crazy storms have been lately, always expect the unexpected.. I agree mainly rainstorm,but if this keeps moving east, that's just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Right my point tho is the GFS came almost 100 miles east with the heaviest snows It's about as far East as it can go and it's still mostly rain for 80% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's about as far East as it can go and it's still mostly rain for 80% of the area. The the GGEM is an impossible senario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 With how crazy storms have been lately, always expect the unexpected.. I agree mainly rainstorm,but if this keeps moving east, that's just crazy. See that high over the Atlantic? It's not going to allow it to come much further East, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Huge chunk of upstate NY is 18-24+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The the GGEM is an impossible senario? Where do you have the 12z GGEM already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 See that high over the Atlantic? It's not going to allow it to come much further East, if at all. In the grand scheme if that high is 50 miles east it's huge implications, that high being in that exact spot is certainly not a gurantee... For all we know it could be west 100 miles and the low tracks up PA... His is the problem models are seeing, they are waffling with the exact position of that high, and slight changes will mean drastic changes for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There's a kicker shortwave behind this which is speeding this up and causing a further east track. I don't think it matters around NYC, but for some of the far interior areas, the east trend could make things more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 See that high over the Atlantic? It's not going to allow it to come much further East, if at all. That I see and agree, but jest comparing several runs off the gfs, it's confusing, why does the storm track further west if the high is further east? The high is closer to us,but the storms taking a further east track this run... what would cause that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Where do you have the 12z GGEM already? I'm referring to last nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In the grand scheme if that high is 50 miles east it's huge implications, that high being in that exact spot is certainly not a gurantee... For all we know it could be west 100 miles and the low tracks up PA... His is the problem models are seeing, they are waffling with the exact position of that high, and slight changes will mean drastic changes for some of us That high pressure is close to 1000 miles East of the area and strengthening. It doesn't matter if it ends up 50 miles in either direction. It gets up to 1050mb eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Perhaps an inch or two on the front end, then over to heavy rain very quickly. So you are saying that will verify ? Remember we still have over 3 days left before precip arrives and a near record breaking arctic outbreak is being forced to leave - these types of outbreaks usually leave cold enough air behind for a while especially since the storm is right on its heels with the classic overrunning. Another thing to consider is when precip arrives it will stick immediately - every flake will stick because of many days of much below normal temps - if it starts at night expect travel problems right away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Coastal hugger on cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is what the 12z GGEM has. See what's going on here? You have a weak, strung out mess, and it's still rain for 90% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So you are saying that will verify ? Remember we still have over 3 days left before precip arrives and a near record breaking arctic outbreak is being forced to leave - these types of outbreaks usually leave cold enough air behind for a while especially since the storm is right on its heels with the classic overrunning. Another thing to consider is when precip arrives it will stick immediately - every flake will stick because of many days of much below normal temps - if it starts at night expect travel problems right away.... Things could change but virtually every model has us warming into the 40s by morning meaning whatever snow we get, 1, 2, 3" would be washed away rather quickly. The frozen ground will make for potential flooding hazards however if we get 1-2" of rain in a short time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So you are saying that will verify ? Remember we still have over 3 days left before precip arrives and a near record breaking arctic outbreak is being forced to leave - these types of outbreaks usually leave cold enough air behind for a while especially since the storm is right on its heels with the classic overrunning. Another thing to consider is when precip arrives it will stick immediately - every flake will stick because of many days of much below normal temps - if it starts at night expect travel problems right away.... I can see an icy scenario in this pattern. No matter how hard I look for a snowy one, I just don't see it. So at that point, might as well go full throttle and root for the 5" rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like this might be a 'messy' winter storm for most, with quicker/faster/flatter solution, that is the pattern and the departing high is so far east it almost does not matter. Clear trend today for a progressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Look at where your baroclinic zone is setting up on the GFS. How could this possibly track further East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the 0z eps was over pa. why is nobody mentioning that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dc gets hit hard. Congrats to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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