ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It's totally amazing. KART is NW of the city, right? Southeast and east the topography rises, but to the north and northwest, it's basically flat all the way to the Northwest Passage. So crazy cold air damming would be my guess. They did a topographic survey on where the ASOS equipment was located couple years back i believe? and it showed a gentle NE to SW slope towards Black Creek Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 They did a topographic survey on where the ASOS equipment was located couple years back i believe? and it showed a gentle NE to SW slope towards Black Creek Bay. That would make sense. Do you have the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That would make sense. Do you have the link? So it's really microclimate siting! Neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 So it's really microclimate siting! Neat. Heres a good map of the topography. https://www.topoquest.com/map.php?lat=43.97931&lon=-75.89786&datum=nad27&zoom=16&map=auto&coord=d&mode=zoomin&size=m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 There have been several times the past few winters where I went garbage picking out of desperation and hung on to a random late-stage NAM or JMA run for an east coast storm that improbably threw a secondary max of snow 50-100 miles west over Eastern Upstate areas. Odd to see this happen the opposite direction. Let's see what the big boy models say. Either way for me, I'm looking at a brief slop, followed by rain and hopefully dryslotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I always look at the shorter range models for temps like the nam/rgem..Euro and gfs were always to warm during precip events when I lived in nj..Doesn't mean it will translate up here..When all said and done the exact track will determine thermal profiles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That would make sense. Do you have the link? http://www.comet.ucar.edu/outreach/abstract_final/1083405_buff_st.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 May I ask why? NAM is not always wrong although its qpf is usually overdone...we've had many events over the years where it outperforms other models w/in say 48 hrs of a storm occurring. Not saying thats the case here but i'd never just toss it unless its a clear outlier as compared to other NWP, which sometimes happens but thats not the case here. The problem with this system is that it doesnt really fully develop until past this latitude...so we get a narrow ribbon of precip on the cold side of the system. 50-100 miles will really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol Wolfie I love you, you only post model runs that jackpot your location. Definitely surprising seeing the NAM southeast as it usually has a northwest Bias. The NAM 4KM is actually quite different than the normal NAM which makes me question it. The higher resolution 4k shows less QPF and more west, while the lower resolution 12KM shows 22" in central New York. Hate to be a met right now. The difference in those 2 maps is the first you get minimal snows while the Hi Res hits the both of us, lol!! I wouldn't be concerned bro as six hrs ago you guys were rejoicing, lol. I gotta say that the area to be in right now is KROC because either way the track ends up being, they are going to get destroyed either way, lol, and good for them, as they are crewed the most in our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The NAM has bounced around a bit with this system, but to be fair it's not really meant to be used beyond short term range either. That is true about the narrow area of heavy snow here. Between that and thermal profiles, this is a forecasting nightmare for WNY/CNY. NAM is not always wrong although its qpf is usually overdone...we've had many events over the years where it outperforms other models. Not saying thats the case here but i'd never just toss it unless its a clear outlier as compared to other NWP, which sometimes happens but thats not the case here. The problem with this system is that it doesnt really fully develop until past this latitude...so we get a narrow ribbon of precip on the cold side of the system. 50-100 miles will really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Went Cross country skiing at a local park earlier today, perfect conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The difference in those 2 maps is the first you get minimal snows while the Hi Res hits the both of us, lol!! I wouldn't be concerned bro as six hrs ago you guys were rejoicing, lol. I gotta say that the area to be in right now is KROC because either way the track ends up being, they are going to get destroyed either way, lol, and good for them, as they are crewed the most in our area! I'm not worried if it hits me or not, just trying to get better with interpreting models/atmosphere. My dream job was being a meteorologist growing up. Got accepted to Penn State for the program before I met my now wife. But events like this make me glad I didn't become one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 hires_snow_ne_61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM is not always wrong although its qpf is usually overdone...we've had many events over the years where it outperforms other models w/in say 48 hrs of a storm occurring. Not saying thats the case here but i'd never just toss it unless its a clear outlier as compared to other NWP, which sometimes happens but thats not the case here. The problem with this system is that it doesnt really fully develop until past this latitude...so we get a narrow ribbon of precip on the cold side of the system. 50-100 miles will really matter. Oh definitely. The 0Z has the low pressure system 2 MB weaker than the previous runs. This is why it travels farther southeast than previous runs did. Also the approaching wave from the west was just a tad faster as well. The NAM always has a NW bias so this definitely made me question the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm not worried if it hits me or not, just trying to get better with interpreting models/atmosphere. My dream job was being a meteorologist growing up. Got accepted to Penn State for the program before I met my now wife. But events like this make me glad I didn't become one. lol, I am one and I'm not actively working in the field, as I can't raise a family of 4, on 28,000 a yr job, to start , meanwhile to get the degree it was a ridiculous amount of ash, and now I can't even pay the loans back because its all bull**** bro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol, I am one and I'm not actively working in the field, as I can't raise a family of 4, on 28,000 a yr job, to start , meanwhile to get the degree it was a ridiculous amount of ash, and now I can't even pay the loans back because its all bull**** bro!! You should get the red tag man! We can use another red tagger on here as LEK is usually busy and OSU moved 2,000 miles into Canada to get a meteorology job. It really is a tough field to get into especially if you want to stay local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gotta stick with euro. Been most consistant. 12 plus roc.even nam tracking east still gives 10 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol, I am one and I'm not actively working in the field, as I can't raise a family of 4, on 28,000 a yr job, to start , meanwhile to get the degree it was a ridiculous amount of ash, and now I can't even pay the loans back because its all bull**** bro!! I went into meteorology because I was interested in forecasting, went on to get advanced degrees and now do applied research (mainly wind lidar applications). I'm very glad I didn't go into forecasting...storms like this remind me why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I see nws twitter page has a stripe of 12 plus goin from east of Buffalo to east of roc. About 50 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I went into meteorology because I was interested in forecasting, went on to get advanced degrees and now do applied research (mainly wind lidar applications). I'm very glad I didn't go into forecasting...storms like this remind me why! So CNY and COH should be the ones doing the forecasting. You guys should both get red tags! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I see nws twitter page has a stripe of 12 plus goin from east of Buffalo to east of roc. About 50 miles wide. Hey Tim, in your profile/avatar under location you spelled Rochester wrong. It reads Location:rochesret ny Just wanted to give you a heads up as its been bothering my OCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The NAM has bounced around a bit with this system, but to be fair it's not really meant to be used beyond short term range either. That is true about the narrow area of heavy snow here. Between that and thermal profiles, this is a forecasting nightmare for WNY/CNY. Agree. I actually went back in to add "within 48 hrs..." Outside of 48 hrs...it can be pretty..."off" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like a blend of gfs and nam. Alla euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I went into meteorology because I was interested in forecasting, went on to get advanced degrees and now do applied research (mainly wind lidar applications). I'm very glad I didn't go into forecasting...storms like this remind me why! Do you work with applications for windmills/wind energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Oh definitely. The 0Z has the low pressure system 2 MB weaker than the previous runs. This is why it travels farther southeast than previous runs did. Also the approaching wave from the west was just a tad faster as well. The NAM always has a NW bias so this definitely made me question the path. This I think is false and heres why. The SE movement and strenght of the SLP has nothing to do with why it trended further East and was weaker. Its weaker and further East because the initial SW is much much weaker, and doesn't dig as much, in turn the heights all over the NE do not rise nearly as much as they did during this mornings 12Z run. The new 00Z Nam is much more likely to occur, as I said earlier, its earlier runs were OK but now its really keying in on some features but I'm still weary of its thermal profiles but snow rates can fix this issue real quick, so like I said earlier, I'd be inclined to believe the Nam more so than the GFS or the GGEM but not the EURO, yet so lets NowCast this Biatch up the CRV so were all content to a degree, lol, and not a HVR as then, only CNY would be rejoicing, as WNY would be left out! I'm tryin here guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 You should get the red tag man! We can use another red tagger on here as LEK is usually busy and OSU moved 2,000 miles into Canada to get a meteorology job. It really is a tough field to get into especially if you want to stay local. I hear ya Buffalo but its really a time issue and a few others as well but I contribute as best as I can on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Do you work with applications for windmills/wind energy? No, never worked on those (yet). Some work has been military (wake vortex type stuff), other work has been more basic research - terrain-modified flow, boundary layer eddies, night time convection (Plains). Last summer there was a research flight into tropical storm Erika (I didn't fly though I've been on other research flights), they're evaluating the impact of lidar winds on the data assimilation and forecast cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 This I think is false and heres why. The SE movement and strenght of the SLP has nothing to do with why it trended further East and was weaker. Its weaker and further East because the initial SW is much much weaker, and doesn't dig as much, in turn the heights all over the NE do not rise nearly as much as they did during this mornings 12Z run. The new 00Z Nam is much more likely to occur, as I said earlier, its earlier runs were OK but now its really keying in on some features but I'm still weary of its thermal profiles but snow rates can fix this issue real quick, so like I said earlier, I'd be inclined to believe the Nam more so than the GFS or the GGEM but not the EURO, yet so lets NowCast this Biatch up the CRV so were all content to a degree, lol, and not a HVR as then, only CNY would be rejoicing, as WNY would be left out! I'm tryin here guys!! That actually makes sense, thanks for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gotta stick with euro. Been most consistant. 12 plus roc.even nam tracking east still gives 10 to 12. It has not been and I would prove this but I cant post 3 hr increments of the EURO here, so apologies. Last night 00Z run and todays 12Z run are definitely not the same in any sense of the word! Timing, strength and track were all different and not by a couple miles either, so I don't want ppl to think the EURO is infallible because it isn't, I can assure you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 No, never worked on those (yet). Some work has been military (wake vortex type stuff), other work has been more basic research - terrain-modified flow, boundary layer eddies, night time convection (Plains). Last summer there was a research flight into tropical storm Erika (I didn't fly though I've been on other research flights), they're evaluating the impact of lidar winds on the data assimilation and forecast cycle. That sounds like an awesome job. It's my dream to be on a recon flight into an eye of a Hurricane. If you know anyone that can hook me up let me know! It's on my bucketlist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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