BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 I wonder why the US even has models as they default to the EURO every single time. This map is exactly what the Euro snow map shows,How do I know? Cause I have it, but cant post it, lol!! The Euro is/was always the King. It simply has more algorithms embedded within it. We should privatize weather forecasting instead of allowing the government to control it. There would be competition to create the best models and private funding to enhance our capabilities. Europe has it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I guess just the NW tip of Onondaga Cty will receive 8-12 while all around them receive 6-8", lol??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Look at Oneida Cty, lol, It has 12-18 furthest nw portion of the cty, and I realize that parts a part of the So, Tug Hill, and the rest has 6-8, come on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If we had a -NAO or any kind of blocking, we'd be congratulating the MA, lol, so watch what you wish for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You can see on that map the discrepancy between buffalo and bighm in forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Brr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Brr! I had a-25F reading per my car thermometer @6am on Two Rod rd just before you come up to Broadway near Alden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I guess just the NW tip of Onondaga Cty will receive 8-12 while all around them receive 6-8", lol??? Take those maps with a grain of salt, this thing is heading NW and we all get heavy rain in return maybe some mix near L.Ontario shoreline but nonetheless i sense a big ol'Bust incoming! :flood: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Take those maps with a grain of salt, this thing is heading NW and we all get heavy rain in return maybe some mix near L.Ontario shoreline but nonetheless i sense a big ol'Bust incoming! :flood:It can't go that much further west because of the kicker on its azz. If by some strange reason it phased, we'd be congratulating DET, lol! I still think we get snow but it's gonna be the consistency of Mashed potatoes, lol, with a lot of IP,FZRN but if the UKMET verifies we'll all have smiles, xcept KBUF but not likely! We'll see soon enough. One thing we do know for certain, a front end thump is on its way!!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 KART dropped 10F within the past hour, they are now down to -15F i wonder if they can make it to below -30F again? perfect conditions for radiational cooling within the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Take those maps with a grain of salt, this thing is heading NW and we all get heavy rain in return maybe some mix near L.Ontario shoreline but nonetheless i sense a big ol'Bust incoming! :flood:Oh, and I take every QPF map with a grain because it's a computers guess as to where the best lift, Omega, and temp profile's gonna be throughout the column so when I see a map like this I laugh. When it's preciping like a mofo, then I'll know it's S+ing!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The Euro is/was always the King. It simply has more algorithms embedded within it. We should privatize weather forecasting instead of allowing the government to control it. There would be competition to create the best models and private funding to enhance our capabilities. Europe has it right. The Euro is definitely not private. The model (IWF) wasn't privately developed, despite much of the data produced being kept proprietary, and the EMCWF is not a private organization, but a distinctively public, cooperative, intergovernmental body. There are entirely good arguments for the merits of private market competition to produce the best product, but there are conditions, like a narrowly limited market for a product or when an existing producer concentrates resources, that this kind of competition fails, and to insist that the free market is the only way transforms into ideology, not economics. The fact that the Euro is produced by a public organization, and that no private group has built a modeling system that outperforms it, indicates that this is such a case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The Euro is definitely not private. The model (IWF) wasn't privately developed, despite much of the data produced being kept proprietary, and the EMCWF is not a private organization, but a distinctively public, cooperative, intergovernmental body. There are entirely good arguments for the merits of private market competition to produce the best product, but there are conditions, like a narrowly limited market for a product or when an existing producer concentrates resources, that this kind of competition fails, and to insist that the free market is the only way transforms into ideology, not economics. The fact that the Euro is produced by a public organization, and that no private group has built a modeling system that outperforms it, indicates that this is such a case. Thanks for the correction, I was misinformed and agree with your points. I just wish North America was able to develop a superior product. They have made enhancements this year, but just not enough yet. The government took over our health insurance and my premiums skyrocketed to make it available to everyone else. $400-500 per person for 2 healthy mid 20 year olds who don't drink(often) or smoke. Through my work its still $400 per month for the both of us on the low tier plan, it's outrageous. That's another discussion for another day though. But the point I was making as you pointed out was make it a competitive price matching market and we would see loads of advancements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 KART dropped 10F within the past hour, they are now down to -15F i wonder if they can make it to below -30F again? perfect conditions for radiational cooling within the next couple hours. They need to do a case study on why Watertown gets so cold. They seem to hit -20 to -35 a few times each winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 They need to do a case study on why Watertown gets so cold. They seem to hit -20 to -35 a few times each winter? I suspect CAD on where the airport is located similar to what happens at KSLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 4 out of the last 5 runs of the euro has shown the LP going into herkimer county, almost in identical spots..Pretty amazing consistency.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Down to -8 already here...how low can it get before the clouds move in. Reached -12 last night, one of the lower readings I've seen in the 12 years I've been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM went East 50-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey atleast nw trend stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just got NAM'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 00z Nam looks really good from just East of KBUF ( as they get shut out of this one unfortunately according to the laughable NAM) but KROC and especially KSYR really jackpot this run, but who says its correct? I guess we'll see what the GFS, to whom I've offered to toss, as its been absolutely atrocious. not only its thermal profiles that have been all over the place, but also the placement of the SLP has been all over the place, throughout the entire time we've tracked this event, just my opinion is all. 00Z Euro will be telling as well as the UKMET, as they haven't wavered a bit since the beginning but I have to say that the EURO sent me for a loop when I saw today's 12Z as it was well West of last nights 00z depiction, so it too is having its own issues regarding this complex scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 They need to do a case study on why Watertown gets so cold. They seem to hit -20 to -35 a few times each winter? It's totally amazing. KART is NW of the city, right? Southeast and east the topography rises, but to the north and northwest, it's basically flat all the way to the Northwest Passage. So crazy cold air damming would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 4 out of the last 5 runs of the euro has shown the LP going into herkimer county, almost in identical spots..Pretty amazing consistency.. Just got NAM'ed What do you mean bro, it looks outstanding now from KROC to just East of the Cuse, so rejoice for at leadt 6 hrs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That is what NAM'ed means lol I trust the Nam thermal profiles more then euro and gfs but we have to nail the track down first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey atleast nw trend stopped How dare you! NW trend never stops it will be back to haunt you forever muhahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 If only 3.gif Lol Wolfie I love you, you only post model runs that jackpot your location. Definitely surprising seeing the NAM southeast as it usually has a northwest Bias. The NAM 4KM is actually quite different than the normal NAM which makes me question it. The higher resolution 4k shows less QPF and more west, while the lower resolution 12KM shows 22" in central New York. Hate to be a met right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If only 3.gif WOLFIE, get confident bro, as this thing is incoming my brother and I am 3 miles to ur SE, so I'm pretty happy from the outcome as this run was a beaut and, believe it or not, as I was pretty much convinced that the Nam over compensated with today's 12Z and it was bound to head back East by 50-100 miles but lets see it it lasts with the rest of the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 That is what NAM'ed means lol I trust the Nam thermal profiles more then euro and gfs but we have to nail the track down first.. May I ask why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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