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February 8-12 2016 Cold and Possibly Snowy


tnweathernut

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That fetch from Clarksville to Nashville to the Southern Plateau is impressive in it's duration. I'd bet there will be places in that area that get 4-6 inches if it stays over them the rest of the day. Same with the streamer stretching from Northern Sevier into Cocke County. I've seen that area get 4-6 in a similar set up. Not sure if House Mountain in NE Knox enhances it or not.

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MRX is reporting 2" of snow just northwest of Chattanooga and Dunlap in Cagle,TN.

 

Cagle Mountain might be the snowiest place on the southern plateau. They always get hammered in NW flow events. The snow is still falling here lightly. It's very pretty, but the could cover is too thin, and we now have zero accumulation left. It's all melted.

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Nashville/Mid state looks to have at least one more enhanced band that will move into their area late this afternoon into this evening. Already seeing reports of 3 inches in that area like Jax measured above. Probably going to get 4 inches in spots that way. Also the enhanced bands should rotate through East Tennessee over night. If you get lucky and a heavier band sets up across your area, I'd wager one 1-2 more inches from it. Otherwise I'd guess everyone gets .5 to 1 outside of the favored upslope areas.

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Chattanooga gets two short waves in one day. Thought I'd never see it! Early morning dusting left breaks of sun in its wake, which may have helped amp up the leading edge of the afternoon wave. Shows up on IR and VIS as cooling clouds and a kink. Certainly a true shortwave with multi-layer clouds makes the difference. One could call it a real clipper in the South.

 

HSV NWS gave detailed reasoning on why to believe the hi-res stuff for this afternoon. MRX also touched on it in an AFD. Around Noon North Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee started to fill in again on satellite as radar returns regenerated. CHA surface dropped back from 32 to 29/30.

 

Rest of the area esp north is doing well with the said short waves, sustained cyclonic flow and PVA aloft. Also note 700 mb temps -17 at Nashville which is close to the ideal -23 for snow dendrite production. Normally one looks for the -23 at 500 mb (which is -30 today) but the system is kind of shallow. The 700 mb at -17 and 850 at -13 makes good snow at high ratios. Enjoy!

 

PS for below.. JayCee I think it will improve tonight. 925/850/700 mb winds pick up just a bit out of the northwest. Those are key levels for orographic lift. Same levels should stay moist, and farther upstairs PVA at 500 mb shifts your way. Since I never get to say this: Hey we are going to send some snow from Chattanooga, lol!

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It's been darn impressive at just how potent the repeat bands have been over the Mid-State. Also their staying power. It's not really translated East as well as I'd have thought it would have.

 

Yeah the streams have been dang near stationary.  It's interesting that more snow hasn't piled up and based on the Nashville area traffic cams pretty much nothing is sticking to the roads.  I've seen half an inch of high ratio snow shut down roads at 18-20 degrees, but apparently at 30-32 degrees... not so much.  Or they brined the crap out of those roads.  Probably both.

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It's been a westerly component instead of NW for East Tennessee as we've been on the bottom of the trough. That's not favorable for me but has been great for Monterrey and western areas of the Plateau.

Yeah...not really favorable for much of East TN outside of the mountains, either. East of Knox, we do much better under a more northwesterly flow I've observed over time. Some areas have done ok today..if you were lucky enough to get under a snow band. Otherwise...just flurries most of the day.

Sent from my LGL22C using Tapatalk

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