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Brick Tamland

Feb 7 Winter Storm

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Cold rain and less sleet now in E Johnston County even though local station states 33* air temp near ground. Is warm nose still looking to recede?

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Reports of sleet down I-95 into SC ... this could linger for a while. This would've been a heckuva snow storm if not for that @%#%@!! warm nose.

 

If I had a dollar for every time I have said that lol....

 

Still the latest Nam 12km says give it few more hrs and bang.....why cant these ever be right 

 

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Still some IP mixing in here but mostly a cold rain. Rates have backed off some and the northern extent is starting to shrink. Precip depiction just flipped to snow around Smithfield.

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Still some IP mixing in here but mostly a cold rain. Rates have backed off some and the northern extent is starting to shrink. Precip depiction just flipped to snow around Smithfield.

 

For whatever reason I have a lot more IP in it now and even some true mangled snowflakes so weird.....

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For whatever reason I have a lot more IP in it now and even some true mangled snowflakes so weird.....

I have a few dilapidated dendrites too, they shatter when they hit the car vs ip which is just bouncing off. Rates have certainly backed off so maybe if we get under the heavier stuff again and could go dominant type.

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winds offshore are not exactly going gang busters either the low still hasnt really begun to bomb out....pressure still around 1002-1008 mb, wind starting to pick up here though maybe if the low can bomb and not move out as fast the 850's can crash while we still have some decent returns...I just wanna see the ground covered by a inch of snow, if it doesnt happen today it might not happen at all this winter. 

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Radar has that snowy look around Rocky Mount, only question is whether or not it's reaching the ground...

Was just out in town. Some light sleet accumulating on the street but not many flakes. Maybe more out towards RWI.

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winds offshore are not exactly going gang busters either the low still hasnt really begun to bomb out....pressure still around 1002-1008 mb, wind starting to pick up here though maybe if the low can bomb and not move out as fast the 850's can crash while we still have some decent returns...I just wanna see the ground covered by a inch of snow, if it doesnt happen today it might not happen at all this winter. 

The storm is a lot weaker than progged by most models, 1002mb and just going negative tilt now. Per last 24 hours of Nam runs it should have been 992mb by now. Interesting. That means it will start bombing out a lot closer to the coast, wonder if it will make a difference as far as precip type and rates now. Seeing 9*** lightning strikes near low center on Radarscope

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The storm is a lot weaker than progged by most models, 1002mb and just going negative tilt now. Per last 24 hours of Nam runs it should have been 992mb by now. Interesting. That means it will start bombing out a lot closer to the coast, wonder if it will make a difference as far as precip type and rates now. Seeing 9*** lightning strikes near low center on Radarscope

 

It is interesting. Looks like this will continue to bomb out in the Atlantic maybe combining with that Great Lakes energy and plaster Cape Cod and Nova Scotia.

 

sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

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First evidence of rate driven snowfall over Kenansville/Warsaw/Magnolia? Just east of Clinton on Radarscope. Looking for OBS.

 

Edit: looking at correlation coefficient there's no way it's snow, maybe a mix of rain/snow or heavy sleet/rain

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Time sensitive link for all to keep watching: low at 1001mb now, on track to bomb out next 2 hours.

namsesfcwbg.gif

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About 80/20 rain and ice pellets, heavier rates ftl. Wind has started to pick up over the past 30 minutes. Big pines are starting to dance a little. It does look like the deck is lower, darker, and via is less to my north as opposed to any other direction.

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About 80/20 rain and ice pellets, heavier rates ftl. Wind has started to pick up over the past 30 minutes. Big pines are starting to dance a little. It does look like the deck is lower, darker, and via is less to my north as opposed to any other direction.

 

Wont even come close to happening for us with this 850 warm nose....by the time they crash the low will be pulling away and we will get a nice FU period of light small flakes that amount to nothing for a hr or so......

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looks to be nearly all snow here, 850s are below freezing but were not going to get enough precip to really make anything out of it, but I think I'll take my flizzard and call it a win

 

temps are also dropping, down to 38

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