Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016

[IrishRob17]

But it all adds onto those seasonal totals. zzzzzzzzzzzzz

Exactly, I said a while ago that I will likely get to a double digit season total thanks to a number of very small events, sitting at 7.0" total now. Boring.

[West Point, NY]

Laugh if you will, but If the amount of snowfall were the only thing that makes up a decent winter I might nod in agreement, however we are living through one of the top 3 warmest met winters in history, which is as aggravating to me as the lack of snowfall and all of the missed opportunities.

Give me a winter of snowfall 10 inches below my average, and temperatures near or slightly below for the season with a period of several weeks of sustained snow pack and I'm a happy camper. That would make me feel like we at least had winter this year. I go into March feeling like at the end of the month we will transition from fall to spring.

And last winter was probably the coldest winter of your life.

[West Point, NY]

I know they do say east coast earthquakes are usually felt 10x more than those on the west coast. Something to do with the faults being older and ground is colder. I remember the 5.8 that hit Richmond was felt in Canada. A 5.8 ini Cali may travel 100 miles.

I was in my house in Lake George and sitting in a chair and the whole room shook for almost 30 seconds. I had never felt anything like that in my life. The hedges were swaying back and forth. It almost made me feel nauseous.

[IrishRob17]

I was in my house in Lake George and sitting in a chair and the whole room shook for almost 30 seconds. I had never felt anything like that in my life. The hedges were swaying back and forth. It almost made me feel nauseous.

I was in my office, on the third floor of a brick building from the 1800's, the shaking was a bit unnerving. Folks from the west coast would've laughed at us I'm sure.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I dunno, 11/12 was warm and dry and weak (I had 5" for the season) then the last two were great.  So this one is warm and weak too, at least I'll go well over 20", ehh whatever.  We have been setting records in all sorts of ways which has been cool, we've had all sorts of learning opportunities and my aging back got a break from shoveling    How do you think they felt the last few years out west where they're used to seeing a couple hundred inches and they were playing golf in February and buying water in 5 gallon jugs while needing paper plates because they had no water to wash dishes?  I bet they weren't having silly internet spats like we've seen this winter from people that live in an area that is notoriously fickle for snowfall but have been spoiled by a few good decades.

 

11/12 was a horrible winter. We did however have 15 inches of snow from the October 29 2011 storm. Technically not winter I know but still having 6-8 inches of snow on the ground on Halloween made for a unique experience. The downside was losing 3 bradford pear trees from that storm.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

And last winter was probably the coldest winter of your life.

 

I suppose if I was 13 that would be true, but 2002/03 was colder, also 93/94, 76/77 and 77/78. I get your point though.

[IrishRob17]

Needless to say, 11-12 sucked especially if you remove the October snowstorm and if I remove that storm I had 3 other snowfalls that were over 2".  My biggest snowfall this year to date is 1.9" so from that stand point, to date, this year is worse. 

[West Point, NY]

I suppose if I was 13 that would be true, but 2002/03 was colder, also 93/94, 76/77 and 77/78. I get your point though.

My bad. Assuming you weren't old enough to remember the winters of the 70s . Last winter, while not the coldest overall was wall to wall cold.

[IrishRob17]

Here are my seasonal snowfall numbers, not including this season yet.  I don't fully trust the 30 year average number as I got it from either Accuweather, Intellicast, or maybe even The Weather Channel website but its the only thing I could find a few years ago and it appears to be in the ballpark.  If that number is to be trusted then the past decade has had snowfall that averages to 11% above the 30 year average.  I moved to my current location in 2005 which is way it only goes back that far.

[snywx]

I dunno, 11/12 was warm and dry and weak (I had 5" for the season) then the last two were great.  So this one is warm and weak too, at least I'll go well over 20", ehh whatever.  We have been setting records in all sorts of ways which has been cool, we've had all sorts of learning opportunities and my aging back got a break from shoveling    How do you think they felt the last few years out west where they're used to seeing a couple hundred inches and they were playing golf in February and buying water in 5 gallon jugs while needing paper plates because they had no water to wash dishes?  I bet they weren't having silly internet spats like we've seen this winter from people that live in an area that is notoriously fickle for snowfall but have been spoiled by a few good decades.

 

Many of us on the west side of the river received 12-18" from the Halloween storm so I finished that yr north of 20". This year is worse

[chietanen]

I see White Gorilla ran the 12z GFS from his basement. Tucks inside the BM and over the Cape. Pretty much a perfect track for the interior. Too bad there's like a 1% chance of it actually happening.

 

[White Gorilla]

I see White Gorilla ran the 12z GFS from his basement. Tucks inside the BM and over the Cape. Pretty much a perfect track for the interior. Too bad there's like a 1% chance of it actually happening.

You know me too well.

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[UlsterCountySnowZ]

You know me too well.

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I have about 1000 pictures and snow maps from interior fantasy storms in 5-10 day time period.... I won't be sucked in, not this time

[codfishsnowman]

Yes, that's what a meant, I know that your area was too far NW a number of times. I don't have access to my records at the moment but can post tomorrow how all those seasons played out IMBY if you're interested.

sure would love to see that 

 

just saw it

 

my long term average here is 48 inches , although some say cef long term is 51-52 inches which is only a few miles away

 

my ten year average 05-06 to 14-15 is 46.1

 

best year at 70 inches 10-11, worst 19 inches 06-07 in last ten years.....so far this season 16.1 inches

[Juliancolton]

I have about 1000 pictures and snow maps from interior fantasy storms in 5-10 day time period.... I won't be sucked in, not this time

 

Yes you will.

 

The Canadian looks interesting for early next week, and then the GFS hammers a cold, active regime going into early March. Should be a fun few weeks coming up, once we rid ourselves of the cutter of doom.

[codfishsnowman]

I have about 1000 pictures and snow maps from interior fantasy storms in 5-10 day time period.... I won't be sucked in, not this time

stunning

[White Gorilla]

I have about 1000 pictures and snow maps from interior fantasy storms in 5-10 day time period.... I won't be sucked in, not this time

Come on, face it, you are an addict. Admitting you have no control is the first step towards recovery. I'll see you at the next MSSAA (Models Showing Snow Addiction Anonymous) meeting.

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[chietanen]

I don't normally post Euro images, but I thought the high pressure depicted in this image is hilarious and sums up our winter in a nutshell. 

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Yes you will.

The Canadian looks interesting for early next week, and then the GFS hammers a cold, active regime going into early March. Should be a fun few weeks coming up, once we rid ourselves of the cutter of doom.

Yea, in reality next week is our best shot at snow(pattern wise)

We've been fighting an uphill battle and should have known better especially with that impressed Atlantic ridge

[White Gorilla]

Yea, in reality next week is our best shot at snow(pattern wise)

We've been fighting an uphill battle and should have known better especially with that impressed Atlantic ridge

We have had two enemies this winter and both have been two powerful high pressure cells.... One with the WAR that gives us rain and the other the powerful confluence from arctic high to the north that gives us nothing.

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[chietanen]

Looking through old records, it appears the lowest seasonal total for Poughkeepsie is 6.5" in 1988-1989? Can someone confirm this? It's really tough finding stats for this area. 

[White Gorilla]

Looking through old records, it appears the lowest seasonal total for Poughkeepsie is 6.5" in 1988-1989? Can someone confirm this? It's really tough finding stats for this area.

That winter really sucked I do remember. It was a la Nina.

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[codfishsnowman]

Looking through old records, it appears the lowest seasonal total for Poughkeepsie is 6.5" in 1988-1989? Can someone confirm this? It's really tough finding stats for this area. 

i believe it...i had about a foot that year in central ct and six inches of that was due to an inverted trough that produced well in central long island up into portions of ct...i am a little surprised it was that low but totally buy it...that winter was just horrific

 

never mind the heart breaker in late feb that buried cape may and acy but was forecast to produce up to a foot through the l/m hv into most of sne....but then went way se

 

 

the inv trough event was early december 88

[White Gorilla]

i believe it...i had about a foot that year in central ct and six inches of that was due to an inverted trough that produced well in central long island up into portions of ct...i am a little surprised it was that low but totally buy it...that winter was just horrific

never mind the heart breaker in late feb that buried cape may and acy but was forecast to produce up to a foot through the l/m hv into most of sne....but then went way se

the inv trough event was early december 88

I remember that heart breaker. I was up half the night trying to see if my NOAA weather radio would update the latest. But, when I looked out the window, I saw the moon through high clouds and my heart sank. I just knew this would fall apart and it did.

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[IrishRob17]

sure would love to see that 

 

just saw it

 

my long term average here is 48 inches , although some say cef long term is 51-52 inches which is only a few miles away

 

my ten year average 05-06 to 14-15 is 46.1

 

best year at 70 inches 10-11, worst 19 inches 06-07 in last ten years.....so far this season 16.1 inches

So its interesting that our stats are similar with the exception that your 10 year average has decreased while mine has increased.

 

 

never mind the heart breaker in late feb that buried cape may and acy but was forecast to produce up to a foot through the l/m hv into most of sne....but then went way se

 

 

Oh jeez, thanks for reminding me of that! 

[backedgeapproaching]

Looking through old records, it appears the lowest seasonal total for Poughkeepsie is 6.5" in 1988-1989? Can someone confirm this? It's really tough finding stats for this area. 

Walden NY COOP is the closest site I could find to POU that actually had info for the 88-89 season

 

Looks like total was 5.0" for 88-89, so 6.5" is probably accurate for POU. 15-16 giving 88-89 a run for tis money.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-ACE9E22D-560A-4983-8CBE-12B117DC90B4.pdf

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5276F085-C613-4A7C-9F06-0D68FA4438CD.pdf

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-43F9692D-25BA-4FFA-972D-7403859E5CA8.pdf

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-58B8C347-B269-4475-8769-91B4BA2BC232.pdf

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-BECE6796-7CD8-4A83-9E08-BE7D71D78535.pdf

[IrishRob17]

Walden NY COOP is the closest site I could find to POU that actually had info for the 88-89 season

 

 

Yeah, that's another source I've referred to over the years and its within about 5 miles or so of my house which is nice.  Some COOP reports can get sketchy as I'm sure you know but we have to use some of the only stuff available.  

[codfishsnowman]

I remember that heart breaker. I was up half the night trying to see if my NOAA weather radio would update the latest. But, when I looked out the window, I saw the moon through high clouds and my heart sank. I just knew this would fall apart and it did.

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I remember being so excited...we had good cold and all local forecasts and twc were gung ho...I remember having breakfast and the sunshine through the high clouds was getting stronger instead of dimmer but Dr. Mel insisted everything was a go and it was coming right up the coast just that the cold dry air was halting things temporarily...

 

well we know how that worked out...I was 16 at the time and the two winters prior had been decent ( average snowfall) but this was the 1980s and average was awesome...but that event brought back memories from earlier 80s winter that were just full of misses or early change overs

 

We still occasionally miss an event forecast at game time but fortunately they are few and far between

[backedgeapproaching]

Yeah, that's another source I've referred to over the years and its within about 5 miles or so of my house which is nice.  Some COOP reports can get sketchy as I'm sure you know but we have to use some of the only stuff available.  

 Oh, no doubt about the COOPs, some can be pretty reliable and some pretty terrible.  Obviously have no idea bout the Walden one, could be some really bad data. Like you said, data is limited when your trying to hone in on microclimate data in a certain area when there isn't a ton if info, so have to use what you can find.

[IrishRob17]

I remember being so excited...we had good cold and all local forecasts and twc were gung ho...I remember having breakfast and the sunshine through the high clouds was getting stronger instead of dimmer but Dr. Mel insisted everything was a go and it was coming right up the coast just that the cold dry air was halting things temporarily...

 

well we know how that worked out...I was 16 at the time and the two winters prior had been decent ( average snowfall) but this was the 1980s and average was awesome...but that event brought back memories from earlier 80s winter that were just full of misses or early change overs

 

We still occasionally miss an event forecast at game time but fortunately they are few and far between

As was I.  Not sure for you but I know for me the sting of a miss was even tougher at that age.

 

 Oh, no doubt about the COOPs, some can be pretty reliable and some pretty terrible.  Obviously have no idea bout the Walden one, could be some really bad data. Like you said, data is limited when your trying to hone in on microclimate data in a certain area when there isn't a ton if info, so have to use what you can find.

The Walden one appears to be decent but I've detected some questionable data at times but it is what it is.  I think that my 43.3 average that I got from someplace is ultimately tied to that station though.