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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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Wow, quite a model variance on track. Welcome to winter.

 

Might turn into a Geos snow magnet winter.

 

 

Split the GFS/GGEM and you've got an Alek bullseye.  :snowing:

 

One of the bigger differences at this point seems to be what happens once it gets to Michigan.  GGEM is an outlier so far.

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looks like my first flakes of the season are going to happen

 

i'd favor a dampening trend with the wave and ratios with these surface temps are bound to suck

 

max stripe probably tops out <3"

Ratios actually shouldn't be that bad, 850 temps are around -5 to -8 and it looks to come predominantly at night. If it is snowing hard enough it will eventually be snowing on snow and not the warm ground. We seem to always have this discussion every first storm, but it isn't like it is October, it's mid November, the snow will stick.

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Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago.  That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow.

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Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago. That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow.

How deep are the marginal temperatures in the Euro? GFS suggests between 925-900mb

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How deep are the marginal temperatures in the Euro? GFS suggests between 925-900mb

 

 

I don't have access to that but my guess is that 925 mb would be below freezing and it's mainly an issue of how warm it gets beneath that. 

 

I would call this a thread the needle setup for the city proper.  If the system gets stronger, then there'd probably be increased precip/ rates but then the onshore flow would be stronger.  As currently modeled, the system really doesn't deepen a whole lot until it's moving past the area.  All in all, assuming something like the current track/strength holds, I would expect accumulations in the city but not as much as farther inland.  

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I don't have access to that but my guess is that 925 mb would be below freezing and it's mainly an issue of how warm it gets beneath that. 

 

I would call this a thread the needle setup for the city proper.  If the system gets stronger, then there'd probably be increased precip/ rates but then the onshore flow would be stronger.  As currently modeled, the system really doesn't deepen a whole lot until it's moving past the area.  All in all, assuming something like the current track/strength holds, I would expect accumulations in the city but not as much as farther inland.  

 

Even though the 850mb low trended further north on the GFS run, the soundings indicate that the marginal BL temps are actually shallower. Seems AOB freezing at around 950mb. Will probably start as sleet and then transition to snow as heavier bands set up.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KMDW.txt

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Looking at the ECMWF 2m temperatures, the area near the Lake Michigan shoreline struggles to drop AOB freezing and hangs a bit above during the event, especially around Chicago.  That scenario looks entirely plausible with lake temps being as warm as they are and onshore flow.

 

Yeah and I think that the Euro at 7" in the city is too high

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