Winter Outlook 2016

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ironically enough, my NAO idea  failed, yet I still lost to suppression.

The universe is a mysterious place.

[powderfreak]

whooooooooosh

Hahaha same to you .

Sarcasm followed by sarcasm. I know you know this winter sucked lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Hahaha same to you .

Sarcasm followed by sarcasm. I know you know this winter sucked lol.

snowfall is only part of the metric though as this year proved.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, I put your personal scale above...your "average" winter you expect is actually something like in the top 25% of all winters at your location. So you live in a place that will get a majority ratters on your own grading scale.

You've just been lucky recently with several 1-2 SD winters above normal.

Yeah that makes sense if he's looking at it on a purely subjective personal scale. Anything below normal is a "wire-to-wire ratter"...but he knows he had moments of excitement. Like the 6-10" storm that ended up 14" over Tolland and Coventry. He had some fun events.

[powderfreak]

snowfall is only part of the metric though as this year proved.

Yeah true in the grading department...In general this board looks at "ratters" in a total snowfall way when talking about past winters.

We've obviously been on the boards for a while but I've never heard an 80% or greater of normal winter termed a wire to wire ratter regardless of snow depth days or whatever.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah true in the grading department...In general this board looks at "ratters" in a total snowfall way when talking about past winters.

We've obviously been on the boards for a while but I've never heard an 80% or greater of normal winter termed a wire to wire ratter regardless of snow depth days or whatever.

couple of weeks of fun out of 16 weeks though. not a ratter in the snow dept . Even with your lack of snow you had more "winter" than most here

[Damage In Tolland]

No snowpack, 2almost snowless months ,1 cold day, and over a foot below normal snowfall. To me that is a ratter . It is what it is. You could say maybe the rat survived and wasn't dead..but it was still a rat.. Just alive

[powderfreak]

couple of weeks of fun out of 16 weeks though. not a ratter in the snow dept . Even with your lack of snow you had more "winter" than most here

On the mountain certainly, but I haven't had a warning storm since Dec 2014.

You guys definitely had more fun in the storm department. I would've killed for an 8" event this season.

I know what Kev means, it's just when weenies talk about this winter in 20 years I don't think that it'll be remembered as a wire to wire ratter like 2011-12 will be in your guys neck of the woods.

[CoastalWx]

11-12 was epitome of ratter. Textbook in SNE from NDJFM. Warm and boring.

[ORH_wxman]

On the mountain certainly, but I haven't had a warning storm since Dec 2014.

You guys definitely had more fun in the storm department. I would've killed for an 8" event this season.

I know what Kev means, it's just when weenies talk about this winter in 20 years I don't think that it'll be remembered as a wire to wire ratter like 2011-12 will be in your guys neck of the woods.

 

It definitely wont be.

 

'99-'00 was worse, '01-'02 was worse, '11-'12 was worse...and probably '06-'07 for at least the coastal plain was worse. It wasn't anything THAT notable for the eastern half of SNE. It was just a typical cruddy winter...maybe not even cruddy in SE MA, at least in the snowfall department.

[CoastalWx]

This winter will be forgettable in a few years. Nothing really exciting to look back on and trigger a flag going off in someone's head...unless the person is a sicko like the rest of us. Like Will said..kind of an overall cruddy winter with some exceptions in SE MA. The irony is that 100 miles from here....it will go into one of Ginxy's Dead Sea Scrolls as one of the top all time ratters ever. Really interesting when you think about it. 

[ORH_wxman]

This winter will be forgettable in a few years. Nothing really exciting to look back on and trigger a flag going off in someone's head...unless the person is a sicko like the rest of us. Like Will said..kind of an overall cruddy winter with some exceptions in SE MA. The irony is that 100 miles from here....it will go into one of Ginxy's Dead Sea Scrolls as one of the top all time ratters ever. Really interesting when you think about it. 

 

Yeah for NW MA into S VT...like 100 miles by the way the crow flies from E MA...had an all timer.

 

Though we've seen it in reverse to an extent...we always bring this winter up, but 2000-2001 was close to an all time great in like SW NH, N ORH county, and of course further north in spots....but you go literally like 70 miles by the way the crow flies and it was just completely unmemorable. I mean, you didn't even get 50" in your area that winter while they were buried twice over not far away for much of the winter. I bet Mitch's weenie plot of land in S VT at 2200 feet probably had like 6 feet of snow pack at one point, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

This winter will be forgettable in a few years. Nothing really exciting to look back on and trigger a flag going off in someone's head...unless the person is a sicko like the rest of us. Like Will said..kind of an overall cruddy winter with some exceptions in SE MA. The irony is that 100 miles from here....it will go into one of Ginxy's Dead Sea Scrolls as one of the top all time ratters ever. Really interesting when you think about it. 

I won't forget the cement storm here that was really really special. The blizzard night was pretty awesome too. The 0 day with 50 mph winds is also a great memory as well as the 7 inch April storm. I cant remember a thing about 11-12 except I skied when it was 90 degrees at the base.

[tamarack]

Yeah true in the grading department...In general this board looks at "ratters" in a total snowfall way when talking about past winters.

We've obviously been on the boards for a while but I've never heard an 80% or greater of normal winter termed a wire to wire ratter regardless of snow depth days or whatever.

 

It was close for me in 09-10, though not wire-to-wire - 12/9 thru 1/2 was decent.  Season's snowfall was 70-75% of avg, high for a ratter though it included the ugliest 10" snowfall I ever hope to see - splattering 4:1 mashed potatoes.  What made it subjectively terrible, probably 2nd worst behind 15-16, was winter essentially ending on Jan 3 as the retro-bomb took over Maine wx, then watching points south get repeatedly KU-ed.  At least 11-12 had the mind-boggling heat records in March to make it memorable.

[powderfreak]

Yeah for NW MA into S VT...like 100 miles by the way the crow flies from E MA...had an all timer.

Though we've seen it in reverse to an extent...we always bring this winter up, but 2000-2001 was close to an all time great in like SW NH, N ORH county, and of course further north in spots....but you go literally like 70 miles by the way the crow flies and it was just completely unmemorable. I mean, you didn't even get 50" in your area that winter while they were buried twice over not far away for much of the winter. I bet Mitch's weenie plot of land in S VT at 2200 feet probably had like 6 feet of snow pack at one point, lol.

There was an observation that winter in 2000-2001 from Readsboro, VT at 2,000ft (just north of Mitch's new property) after the March 30 nor'easter that winter of 74" of snow depth. That March alone had like widespread 60-100" amounts across the state. I think the Jay Peak Coop had like 180" or something stupid like that that month.

I'll try to find it. It's in one of the Albany news stations weather archives as a summary of that winter.

[powderfreak]

I won't forget the cement storm here that was really really special. The blizzard night was pretty awesome too. The 0 day with 50 mph winds is also a great memory as well as the 7 inch April storm. I cant remember a thing about 11-12 except I skied when it was 90 degrees at the base.

Yeah you guys had some fun storms and events to track...was it epic not even close but for Kev I keep thinking he could get the same snow total in a SWFE winter or something, except instead of several all snow warning events to get to 47", he gets there by like ten storms of 2-5" amounts followed by dumbfounded and then rain at 33F.

I would think there's something to be said about getting multiple all snow warning events and jackpotting a couple of them. That sounds better than a 50" winter of snow to mix or rain scenarios.

And yeah two months were snowless (though wasn't there at least 1 like 3-7" storm in March, more than up here at least) but last year was as epic as it comes and December and March were still snowless. Just that by March the snowpack was deep so it didn't matter.

I guess I'm saying that most years will not feature wire to wire snow and even in the best years you can get 4-8 weeks of meh like last winter.

[tamarack]

There was an observation that winter in 2000-2001 from Readsboro, VT at 2,000ft (just north of Mitch's new property) after the March 30 nor'easter that winter of 74" of snow depth. That March alone had like widespread 60-100" amounts across the state. I think the Jay Peak Coop had like 180" or something stupid like that that month.

I'll try to find it. It's in one of the Albany news stations weather archives as a summary of that winter.

 

Looks like just over 10 feet, their #2 month behind the 12 feet of Dec. 2003, with no other month even close.  They got 37" in the early March storm, 40" in the equinox dump, "only" 13" at month's end, and took 90"+ snowpack into April.  Somehow that all melted by about 4/25, only 2 days after my snowpack vanished (which makes no sense at all.)  That Jay pack probably had 20" or more SWE while mine had closer to 12", and I'm about 1,500' lower than there.  Their melt-off came 2 weeks later than in 2001 in both 1992 and 1994, with considerably less snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah for NW MA into S VT...like 100 miles by the way the crow flies from E MA...had an all timer.

Though we've seen it in reverse to an extent...we always bring this winter up, but 2000-2001 was close to an all time great in like SW NH, N ORH county, and of course further north in spots....but you go literally like 70 miles by the way the crow flies and it was just completely unmemorable. I mean, you didn't even get 50" in your area that winter while they were buried twice over not far away for much of the winter. I bet Mitch's weenie plot of land in S VT at 2200 feet probably had like 6 feet of snow pack at one point, lol.

Yeah true about 00-01. I think I would have felt like Ryan did last year. So close to epicosity, but not quite. A winter like that is coming eventually. Just gotta enjoy the ride when the good times roll.

[CoastalWx]

I won't forget the cement storm here that was really really special. The blizzard night was pretty awesome too. The 0 day with 50 mph winds is also a great memory as well as the 7 inch April storm. I cant remember a thing about 11-12 except I skied when it was 90 degrees at the base.

April will be remembered I think, but the rest were rather pedestrian. A 10" wet snow is fun.....but in the grand scheme of how snowy it's been lately, many won't remember it. Now take the same wet snow bomb in the late 80s and you have a different story. It's all relative. I'll remember it, but many won't really IMO.

[Ginx snewx]

April will be remembered I think, but the rest were rather pedestrian. A 10" wet snow is fun.....but in the grand scheme of how snowy it's been lately, many won't remember it. Now take the same wet snow bomb in the late 80s and you have a different story. It's all relative. I'll remember it, but many won't really IMO.

It wasn't the amount of snow, it was the snapping and cracking of trees, transformers and the amount of destruction. On par with Irene for tree damage up here. I am sure many around here won't forget it for a while.

[CoastalWx]

It wasn't the amount of snow, it was the snapping and cracking of trees, transformers and the amount of destruction. On par with Irene for tree damage up here. I am sure many around here won't forget it for a while.

Yeah some decent damage. This winter actually had a fair amount of tree damage between the two wet snows and the two inside runners.

[powderfreak]

It wasn't the amount of snow, it was the snapping and cracking of trees, transformers and the amount of destruction. On par with Irene for tree damage up here. I am sure many around here won't forget it for a while.

 

When was that?

[CoastalWx]

When was that?

2/5. But that is a sea breeze compared to Feb 2013 blizzard around here. That storm looked like a cat II went through SE MA.

[Ginx snewx]

When was that?

Feb 5th

[CoastalWx]

Yeah not sure about lots of damage though.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah not sure about lots of damage though.

whats that supposed to mean?

[CoastalWx]

whats that supposed to mean?

NB? I wouldn't say it created significant tree damage across the region.

[Damage In Tolland]

How many outages happened?

[Ginx snewx]

NB? I wouldn't say it created significant tree damage across the region.

There was sig damage. 70K in my small County without power all about 300 to 600 ft in elevation. Trees and limbs were snapping like gunshots for hours. I posted multiple pics of damage in my little piece of heaven.

[Ginx snewx]

How many outages happened?

70K in ECT