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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-MODELS


Rjay

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It's the parallel run of the GFS using the newer 4D-EnVar data assimilation. If I'm not mistaken the plan is to upgrade the GFS sometime next year.

 

Thanks!  Looks like the verification stats suggest it will be a bit better than it is now, but still no Euro!

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Outflow is starting to become restricted to the Northeast of the center thanks to some Easterly shear and a ton of dry air moving towards the cyclone. It still has a window to strengthen thanks to the the continued warm SST and the southerly shear vector that is currently helping to ventilate the system, but it probably has come close to peaking given that the steady strengthening we saw yesterday seems to have leveled off.

 

wv_lalo-animated.gif

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That was a 75 mile error.  The other models had a 2000 mile error when compared with the Euro's solution on the hurricane.  Apples and oranges.

The final solution, even if offshore will end up being hundreds of miles further NW than the Euro solution from yesterday.

 

You just don't realize it as much because OTS is OTS.

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An alternative solution, wouldn't all that easterly wind seen here help to guide the cyclone further and further West until it was finally caught up in the trough?

 

wv-animated.gif

It is cut off from the flow. These find a way out between the troughs.

This is going east. It's been done for over a day as far as a US astrike goes.

The beaches will get lashed with NE and we will get some much needed rain , but you are attempting to put a round peg in a square hole here.

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The final solution, even if offshore will end up being hundreds of miles further NW than the Euro solution from yesterday.

 

You just don't realize it as much because OTS is OTS.

Fair point.   But its early solution of a non US landfall will be what's remembered about this one.

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Fair point.   But its solution of a non US landfall will be what's remembered about this one.

So what? 

 

The Ocean is massive compared to land. The Euro solution could be off by 1000 miles. It just happens to be a coincidence that there isn't any land to contend with in that direction.

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It's only wrong when I had me getting 2-3 feet 72 hrs out and or any amount of snow last winter

 

Haha...at least a 50-75 mile miss with the 20 inch line is better than the other models forecasting a NW hook

into the MA instead of well SE of the benchmark consensus now.

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Haha...at least a 50-75 mile miss with the 20 inch line is better than the other models forecasting a NW hook

into the MA instead of SE of the benchmark consensus now.

Exactly.  The other models were nowhere even close including the hurricane models.  A great coup for the Euro.

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The 12z NAM still wants a NC landfall. I think Joaquin could be near Bermuda and it would still get captured and tugged almost due West.

The NAM?  If that's all you got on your side, it's going to be a tough row.  It's a meso model meant for 24 hour pickups of banding etc...

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It's the first of the 12z suite to come out, what more do you want?

 

12z nam actually has it strike NC but keeps the center over open waters as it does its loop. Interesting to see what would come of it if that were to happen. (through 72hrs anyway)

 

Speaking in terms of rainfall for SC, that would be catastrophic. 

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wv-animated.gif

 

 

That is a beautiful and unusual sight right there. Almost looks like the storm is being pincered between two pressing fingers. Wouldn't be surprised if, when it does start to move, it moves pretty quickly northward.  

 

Edit: how is the ULL's position relative to modeling? Appears to be taking a generally south movement.

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That is a beautiful and unusual sight right there. Almost looks like the storm is being pincered between two pressing fingers. Wouldn't be surprised if, when it does start to move, it moves pretty quickly northward. 

 

I don't understand how this wouldn't affect the track. Wouldn't the storm sort of "go with the flow" so to speak? How could it ignore those westerly winds? 

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At this point I would just be happy with a few more inches of rain. It was always a very outside chance of being a major player here even with a landfall. The most disappointing thing from my perspective is the tropical moisture combining with the ULL as it slid to our South would have produced some absurd amounts of rain.

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I don't understand how this wouldn't affect the track. Wouldn't the storm sort of "go with the flow" so to speak? How could it ignore those westerly winds? 

The 11AM advisory discussion really rains on everyone's parade. They are tossing everything in favor of the 00z ECMWF, 06z GFS correlation. 

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