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bluewave

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS

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The Euro is pretty mundane for us. Most of the PRE goes South and Joaquin goes OTS.

Yep-big swing and a miss.  It jumps to the east towards Ida's remnants-odd solution....Still 5 days out, so the final outcome is far from certain.

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I wonder if the intensity forecast is going to lead to major errors in the modeling. 

I was thinking the same thing-if there's a quick ramp up tonight, the euro's solution (and other modeling will surely change)

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Looking really, really good on vis loop. We might see an eye poke out soon.

 

 

The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. 

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The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. 

I think the shear is supposed to relax within the next 12-24 hours so guessing it will wrap around once that happens.  Looks good on satellite already

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Recon noted an eye wall forming that's about half open.

Sent from my SM-G925V

Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point.  Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested?

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Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point. Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested?

A bigger stronger storm will start to effect its own environment. So I would wait for later runs as it starts to do so.

One thing that could inhibit it is it is moving slow and will start to upwell.

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A bigger stronger storm will start to effect its own environment. So I would wait for later runs as it starts to do so.

One thing that could inhibit it is it is moving slow and will start to upwell.

agree-if it sits and spins it will slowly weaken due to churned up cooler waters.

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Appears OKX has trimmed expected rainfall amounts by half from what they were this morning:

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

Not really surprising given that the general model consensus has come down quite a bit from yesterday. Still 1.5-2.0" of rain is nothing to sneeze at. Could even see locally higher amounts. 

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