Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Let's Talk Winter


Steve

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 760
  • Created
  • Last Reply

ILN latest. Can't blame them much for not saying anymore than they did.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY BUT QUICKLY BECOMES VERY ACTIVE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PROVIDES DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

AS THE HIGH RETREATS THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL KICK OUT OF
TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
IN PUSHING THE PCPN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE 12Z RUN...THE GFS HAD CAUGHT UP AND IS SHOWING NICE AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW 1/2 OF THE FA TO LIKELY FOR
THE LATER PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE RAIN BAND
LIFTS THROUGH. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE PCPN WILL FALL AS LIQUID
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD STAY 45 TO 50.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NW.

MODELS HAD TEMPORARILY COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY BRINGING A
CLOSED SFC LOW UP THE WEST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS AS THE 12Z GFS
TRENDED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS ALSO IN LINE. THE 12Z
ECMWF HOWEVER HAS LOST IS SFC LOW AND KEEPS ANY DEVELOPMENT OFF
SHORE. WENT 2/3 GFS 1/3 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. WHICH GIVES RAIN
IN THE SE AND RAIN/SNOW IN THE NW.


BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD MAKE THE 40S FOR HIGHS...KEEPING ANY
PCPN LIQUID.  SUNDAY SEE HIGHS FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
HIGHS 30 TO 35.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z GFS is not much better from the 18z run.

 

 

Wonder if we are in the "lose the storm" zone that the models sometimes go through at this range.  I guess we'll see what the other 00z runs offer.  Was encouraging to not see the Euro ensembles bail like the op run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wonder if we are in the "lose the storm" zone that the models sometimes go through at this range.  I guess we'll see what the other 00z runs offer.  Was encouraging to not see the Euro ensembles bail like the op run. 

Energy looked better from the 18z run but also looked much faster especially from the 12z run. Maybe too fast with it (GFS bias)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wonder if we are in the "lose the storm" zone that the models sometimes go through at this range.  I guess we'll see what the other 00z runs offer.  Was encouraging to not see the Euro ensembles bail like the op run.

The euro ensembles bailed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...