Let's Talk Winter

[buckeye]

12z Euro faster too. Like the low placement but borderline 850s.

 

Not picking on you, but we're really scraping the bottom here.  I ran through the wxbell maps and it's basically a wave on a cold front with very little precip (as in <.10), which is also rain.

 

Does say a lot about how things are going when this is all we got.  To salt the wound more, the euro really starts to blow up heights in the center eastern US at 240hr,   

 

I suspect we could have a mild xmas week unfortunately.  

[josh_4184]

Not picking on you, but we're really scraping the bottom here.  I ran through the wxbell maps and it's basically a wave on a cold front with very little precip (as in <.10), which is also rain.

 

Does say a lot about how things are going when this is all we got.  To salt the wound more, the euro really starts to blow up heights in the center eastern US at 240hr,   

 

I suspect we could have a mild xmas week unfortunately.  

I agree, latest Euro telling Santa to put the wheels on the sleigh this year. Might be only the 5th time since 1950 that Gaylord may not have 1inch of snow on the ground for X-Mas. Look like we may get a little LES aroudn the lakes but not nothing worth mentioning. 

[buckeye]

I am thinking a total shutdown on model watching until 0z January the 2nd. Might as well get some rest until things get going later on.

 

Look at that.... Angry sounding all optimistic

[vespasian70]

Look at that.... Angry sounding all optimistic

That's how I read it. LOL Hope springs eternal.

[vespasian70]

Ganahl is resorting to folklore in his latest FB post. We are doomed.

[wxdudemike]

I don't think we'll be in a favorable wind flow for LES on Friday (here in SW Ohio), but I wonder about snow showers/squalls? Very steep lapse rates progged on the GFS sounding, almost un-seasonably cold at 850 (-10 to -13), and the mid-level trough axis hits at midday. Too far out to really forecast anything beyond a few snow showers, but worth watching.

[buckeye]

Snow chances for a particular location are always up in the air, but if this torch is unabated by Christmas, then every model is wrong. There is clearly an end in sight. What it produces remains to be seen.

 

We have a brief reprieve coming but there's a lot more work to be done to extinguish the torches.  We might actually have a bigger torch on or near xmas than the one we have been experiencing.

 

Even at the end of the 384 gfs run....it still looks toasty

[buckeye]

I wish our local statistician, jbcmh would check in.   I'd love to see the top 5 warmest Decembers on record and what happened to the rest of those winters for us.

[vespasian70]

Two weeks out from Christmas Eve and I see no end in sight for this torch. At this rate Santa will be needing to install A/C in his sleigh.

 

Still looks like a good call. The GFS is off the hook for us.

[buckeye]

Still looks like a good call. The GFS is off the hook for us.

 

it was a good call.  I think Jonger and Josh were both being a bit overly optimistic in their responses to you earlier in the thread....(whether it's Detroit, MI or Newark, OH)....there is no end in sight to this, unless you have the ability to see beyond 2 or 3 weeks.  

 

Good money is on the bet that eventually the torch will end, but for how long, to what extent, and will it re-emerge?  

 

AO is about ready to go off the charts, and even indications that the dip afterwards only bottoms out in positive territory before heading even higher.   AO has been a pretty good indicator so far. (notice the dip negative right at the time we cool down late week).

[Jonger]

it was a good call.  I think Jonger and Josh were both being a bit overly optimistic in their responses to you earlier in the thread....(whether it's Detroit, MI or Newark, OH)....there is no end in sight to this, unless you have the ability to see beyond 2 or 3 weeks.  

 

Good money is on the bet that eventually the torch will end, but for how long, to what extent, and will it re-emerge?  

 

AO is about ready to go off the charts, and even indications that the dip afterwards only bottoms out in positive territory before heading even higher.   AO has been a pretty good indicator so far. (notice the dip negative right at the time we cool down late week).

 

I checked Johndee's snow records.... he is a meteorologist who lives in the Keweenaw peninsula. In 2006-2007 winter, his depth was below 10 inches until mid to late January. That area probably averages the most snow east of the rocky mountains.

 

I knew it would be bad... and so far it's about as bad as I assumed. I did think the 22nd storm was going to trigger a trough, it was a solution that stabilized for several days.

[buckeye]

 

I don't think we'll be in a favorable wind flow for LES on Friday (here in SW Ohio), but I wonder about snow showers/squalls? Very steep lapse rates progged on the GFS sounding, almost un-seasonably cold at 850 (-10 to -13), and the mid-level trough axis hits at midday. Too far out to really forecast anything beyond a few snow showers, but worth watching.

 

 

GFS still advertising widespread snow showers developing over much of the state Friday.   We may get our first measurable snow of the season, albeit tenth(s) of an inch.     

 

Honestly, since it's suppose to torch soon after, I'd rather go for the record latest first measurable at this point.

[buckeye]

384 hour gfs has a classic, perfect-tracking app runner.

 

and it's all rain 

[jbcmh81]

I wish our local statistician, jbcmh would check in.   I'd love to see the top 5 warmest Decembers on record and what happened to the rest of those winters for us.

 

I've been avoiding the weather side because there has been nothing worth talking about.  The consensus has long been that December was going to torch hard.  Not that 70 degrees in December is terrible, but for winter lovers, it is a disaster.

 

As for the stats...

 

Here are top 20 warmest Decembers, as well as the following January-February average.

 

1. 1889: 44.6-  39.8

2. 1923: 42.0-  28.1

3. 1931: 41.1-  40.0

4. 1956: 40.8-  30.8

5. 1881: 40.5-  37.0

6. 1918, 1982: 40.4-   32.8 and 31.8 respectively. 

7. 2006: 40.1-  28.1

8. 1891: 40.0-   29.6

9. 1984: 39.5-  23.7

10. 2012: 39.4-  31.6

11. 2011: 38.9-  35.2

12. 1940: 38.8-  30.2

13. 1994: 38.7-  28.7

14. 1971, 2001: 38.4-  27.9 and 35.7 respectively.

15. 1941: 38.2-  29.0

16. 1998: 38.1-  33.9

17. 1911: 37.3-   21.3

18. 1879, 1990: 37.2-  41.4 and 32.5 respectively.

19. 1936, 1996: 37.0-  35.2 and 32.0 respectively. 

20. 1946: 36.8-  30.3

 

Right now, 2015 is running in 2nd place, just behind 1889.  There's a heaping load of craptastic winters in this list. 

 

As far as how the following few months panned out, there's not much to hope for.  All but one had colder January-February periods than December, so that's the good news.  Another bit of good news is that 15 of the 24 had January-February periods that were at least 5 degrees colder than December, including 8 that were at least 10 degrees colder.  However, only a handful were truly cold second halves just because 5-10 degrees colder than super warm is still pretty warm in winter.  In terms of snow, only 5 winters ended up with normal to above. 

 

If 2015 ends up in the top 5, those numbers are even worse.  None had normal to above normal snowfall, and just one had a moderately cold January-February.

 

The conclusion here is that while it will highly likely be colder the second half of winter, it will probably be average cold at best, and likely with below normal snowfall.  Of course, every winter is different, just like every El Nino, so there are always exceptions.  I wouldn't hold my breath, though.

 

Also, if some of the models are right, we'd be challenging the all-time warmest Christmas.

[buckeye]

I've been avoiding the weather side because there has been nothing worth talking about.  The consensus has long been that December was going to torch hard.  Not that 70 degrees in December is terrible, but for winter lovers, it is a disaster.

 

As for the stats...

 

Here are top 20 warmest Decembers, as well as the following January-February average.

 

1. 1889: 44.6-  39.8

2. 1923: 42.0-  28.1

3. 1931: 41.1-  40.0

4. 1956: 40.8-  30.8

5. 1881: 40.5-  37.0

6. 1918, 1982: 40.4-   32.8 and 31.8 respectively. 

7. 2006: 40.1-  28.1

8. 1891: 40.0-   29.6

9. 1984: 39.5-  23.7

10. 2012: 39.4-  31.6

11. 2011: 38.9-  35.2

12. 1940: 38.8-  30.2

13. 1994: 38.7-  28.7

14. 1971, 2001: 38.4-  27.9 and 35.7 respectively.

15. 1941: 38.2-  29.0

16. 1998: 38.1-  33.9

17. 1911: 37.3-   21.3

18. 1879, 1990: 37.2-  41.4 and 32.5 respectively.

19. 1936, 1996: 37.0-  35.2 and 32.0 respectively. 

20. 1946: 36.8-  30.3

 

Right now, 2015 is running in 2nd place, just behind 1889.  There's a heaping load of craptastic winters in this list. 

 

As far as how the following few months panned out, there's not much to hope for.  All but one had colder January-February periods than December, so that's the good news.  Another bit of good news is that 15 of the 24 had January-February periods that were at least 5 degrees colder than December, including 8 that were at least 10 degrees colder.  However, only a handful were truly cold second halves just because 5-10 degrees colder than super warm is still pretty warm in winter.  In terms of snow, only 5 winters ended up with normal to above. 

 

If 2015 ends up in the top 5, those numbers are even worse.  None had normal to above normal snowfall, and just one had a moderately cold January-February.

 

The conclusion here is that while it will highly likely be colder the second half of winter, it will probably be average cold at best, and likely with below normal snowfall.  Of course, every winter is different, just like every El Nino, so there are always exceptions.  I wouldn't hold my breath, though.

 

Also, if some of the models are right, we'd be challenging the all-time warmest Christmas.

 

thanks for the info....

brutal as expected.

[pondo1000]

I've been avoiding the weather side because there has been nothing worth talking about.  The consensus has long been that December was going to torch hard.  Not that 70 degrees in December is terrible, but for winter lovers, it is a disaster.

 

As for the stats...

 

Here are top 20 warmest Decembers, as well as the following January-February average.

 

1. 1889: 44.6-  39.8

2. 1923: 42.0-  28.1

3. 1931: 41.1-  40.0

4. 1956: 40.8-  30.8

5. 1881: 40.5-  37.0

6. 1918, 1982: 40.4-   32.8 and 31.8 respectively. 

7. 2006: 40.1-  28.1

8. 1891: 40.0-   29.6

9. 1984: 39.5-  23.7

10. 2012: 39.4-  31.6

11. 2011: 38.9-  35.2

12. 1940: 38.8-  30.2

13. 1994: 38.7-  28.7

14. 1971, 2001: 38.4-  27.9 and 35.7 respectively.

15. 1941: 38.2-  29.0

16. 1998: 38.1-  33.9

17. 1911: 37.3-   21.3

18. 1879, 1990: 37.2-  41.4 and 32.5 respectively.

19. 1936, 1996: 37.0-  35.2 and 32.0 respectively. 

20. 1946: 36.8-  30.3

 

Right now, 2015 is running in 2nd place, just behind 1889.  There's a heaping load of craptastic winters in this list. 

 

As far as how the following few months panned out, there's not much to hope for.  All but one had colder January-February periods than December, so that's the good news.  Another bit of good news is that 15 of the 24 had January-February periods that were at least 5 degrees colder than December, including 8 that were at least 10 degrees colder.  However, only a handful were truly cold second halves just because 5-10 degrees colder than super warm is still pretty warm in winter.  In terms of snow, only 5 winters ended up with normal to above. 

 

If 2015 ends up in the top 5, those numbers are even worse.  None had normal to above normal snowfall, and just one had a moderately cold January-February.

 

The conclusion here is that while it will highly likely be colder the second half of winter, it will probably be average cold at best, and likely with below normal snowfall.  Of course, every winter is different, just like every El Nino, so there are always exceptions.  I wouldn't hold my breath, though.

 

Also, if some of the models are right, we'd be challenging the all-time warmest Christmas.

So you are saying there's a chance........LOL

[wxdudemike]

Thanks for the stats!!

 

We are sitting at +10.4F for December so far at CVG  And this weekend will only punch in some near (maybe slightly) below normal values before we torch hard again. I wouldn't be shocked to see a double digit departure for month's end given the current forecast. With a +10 in December it's a virtual lock that DJF ends up >0 given that we would need an EPIC cold end which is unlikely. My +1 to +3 DJF call will probably be too cold 

 

I went with 14-18 inches of snow for the winter season at CVG.  We'll need a rally to get to 14 LOL but I still think it's doable if our flip to cold actually pans out.  Now that is still well below normal, but hoping for greater than 0.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Thanks for the stats!!

 

We are sitting at +10.4F for December so far at CVG  And this weekend will only punch in some near (maybe slightly) below normal values before we torch hard again. I wouldn't be shocked to see a double digit departure for month's end given the current forecast. With a +10 in December it's a virtual lock that DJF ends up >0 given that we would need an EPIC cold end which is unlikely. My +1 to +3 DJF call will probably be too cold 

 

I went with 14-18 inches of snow for the winter season at CVG.  We'll need a rally to get to 14 LOL but I still think it's doable if our flip to cold actually pans out.  Now that is still well below normal, but hoping for greater than 0.

Yeah, I wonder if we can end December with a double digit anomaly. That'd be something. I think it's a possibility.

 

As far as the snow... don't forget about last winter. This image posted by ILN says it all.

 

 

Not too hard to get to our 16" average  I remember I measured a snow depth of 10" soon after the 21st. I don't recall having that much snow in my memory.

[wxdudemike]

Yeah, I wonder if we can end December with a double digit anomaly. That'd be something. I think it's a possibility.

As far as the snow... don't forget about last winter. This image posted by ILN says it all.

Not too hard to get to our 16" average I remember I measured a snow depth of 10" soon after the 21st. I don't recall having that much snow in my memory.

I think our CVG avg is like 22 or 24" so that may be hard lol

I forget that all came in six days last year. I do remember it being a wild ride out of no where. I think 2010 is my best when I had a snow depth of 17 or 18" in Cincy. Crazy for us!

Sent from my Nexus 5X

[buckeye]

I think our CVG avg is like 22 or 24" so that may be hard lol

I forget that all came in six days last year. I do remember it being a wild ride out of no where. I think 2010 is my best when I had a snow depth of 17 or 18" in Cincy. Crazy for us!

Sent from my Nexus 5X

 

yep 2010 was one of my favorite snow on snow streaks here in CMH.    Very memorable.

[wxdudemike]

yep 2010 was one of my favorite snow on snow streaks here in CMH. Very memorable.

Such an epic February! Did you guys get the clipper on roids? We got like 10-12. Then a separate one had a weird meso low / comma head that developed near HAO and traveled southeast down the east side of Cincy. We got 6" in less than three hours. By far the most epic snow event I've ever seen.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[ClicheVortex2014]

I think our CVG avg is like 22 or 24" so that may be hard lol

I forget that all came in six days last year. I do remember it being a wild ride out of no where. I think 2010 is my best when I had a snow depth of 17 or 18" in Cincy. Crazy for us!

Sent from my Nexus 5X

I've seen conflicting averages for our area. I've seen anywhere from 13" to 24". I think something closer to 24" sounds right.

 

Such an epic February! Did you guys get the clipper on roids? We got like 10-12. Then a separate one had a weird meso low / comma head that developed near HAO and traveled southeast down the east side of Cincy. We got 6" in less than three hours. By far the most epic snow event I've ever seen.

Sent from my Nexus 5X

Man... I really missed out. I didn't start caring about weather until 2012.

[wxdudemike]

I've seen conflicting averages for our area. I've seen anywhere from 13" to 24". I think something closer to 24" sounds right.

Man... I really missed out. I didn't start caring about weather until 2012.

Yeah, it is either 22 or 24. Both of which aren't all that impressive!

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[buckeye]

Such an epic February! Did you guys get the clipper on roids? We got like 10-12. Then a separate one had a weird meso low / comma head that developed near HAO and traveled southeast down the east side of Cincy. We got 6" in less than three hours. By far the most epic snow event I've ever seen.

Sent from my Nexus 5X

 

we got screwed on that meso low deal.  We actually got dry slotted and missed all the thunder snow that places to our west and sw cashed in on.

[pondo1000]

Wait....what....can it be.....can it really be? 

What...what...what is that I see?

Is that....no...it cannot be!

IT"S SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

 

LOL. Better soak these flakes in!

 

Thanks pathetic winter of '15-'16 for enticing us even more!!!!!!

[buckeye]

Wait....what....can it be.....can it really be? 

What...what...what is that I see?

Is that....no...it cannot be!

IT"S SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

 

LOL. Better soak these flakes in!

 

Thanks pathetic winter of '15-'16 for enticing us even more!!!!!!

 

lol...I hope this isn't enough to record our first measurable of the season.   I don't want to waste away a potential record for latest with some silly .1" snow showers.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wait....what....can it be.....can it really be? 

What...what...what is that I see?

Is that....no...it cannot be!

IT"S SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

 

LOL. Better soak these flakes in!

 

Thanks pathetic winter of '15-'16 for enticing us even more!!!!!!

 

 

lol...I hope this isn't enough to record our first measurable of the season.   I don't want to waste away a potential record for latest with some silly .1" snow showers.

I got to drive in some moderately heavy snow. That was fun. Snow was blowing over the pavement too. But nothing accumulated 

[Guru Of Reason]

As someone new to Cleveland, I got to experience my first Cleveland snow today.  Too bad it was only three snowflakes. 

[buckeye]

if we had cold air around....even in normal amounts....that storm evolution on the 12z gfs for the 27th and 28th would be one kickass winterstorm for our neck of the subforum.

[pondo1000]

if we had cold air around....even in normal amounts....that storm evolution on the 12z gfs for the 27th and 28th would be one kickass winterstorm for our neck of the subforum.

Yep, just saw that. Salt in the wound.........