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Winter 2015-16 Discussion


Hoosier

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In 1997-98, Cincinnati got 200% of average snowfall (total of ~22"), while being a complete torch of a winter. :blink:

December 1997 - +2.1

January 1998 - +10.5

February 1998 - +8.7

After the past 2 winters, I'd be happy with 1997-98. Likely not gonna happen though.

I bet a lot of that came in the same storm that buried Louisville.

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Can't wait for the Nino to strengthen even more in the coming months... how much stronger can it get? Lol

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The daily 3.4 reading is already flirting with Super Nino territory. I think an ONI peak in Super territory is more likely than not...the question is can we break the all-time record.
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The daily 3.4 reading is already flirting with Super Nino territory. I think an ONI peak in Super territory is more likely than not...the question is can we break the all-time record.

Hope so... can't wait to see the weekly reading tomorrow. Nino 1+2 should crash, Nino 4 should remain the same or cool, and the rest should be warmer...

 

Latest CFS is now picking up on a warmer Nino 1+2 crash and a warmer 3.4 peak. Also, Australia's BoM will update the climate model summary tomorrow... curious to see which direction it takes since JAMSTEC has the Nino peak in September.

 

 

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Non-PDF corrected 3.4:

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In 1997-98, Cincinnati got 200% of average snowfall (total of ~22"), while being a complete torch of a winter. :blink:

December 1997 - +2.1

January 1998 - +10.5

February 1998 - +8.7

After the past 2 winters, I'd be happy with 1997-98. Likely not gonna happen though.

Seems your numbers may be off. Several sites report Cincy averages 20-22" per year. http://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/ohio/cincinnati

Edit actually just as many sites say 11.2". That seems way too low, but some places do say that. Not sure which is correct.

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Seems your numbers may be off. Several sites report Cincy averages 20-22" per year. http://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/ohio/cincinnati

Edit actually just as many sites say 11.2". That seems way too low, but some places do say that. Not sure which is correct.

That volatility is probably because different sites use different time periods for the average. I'd imagine the ones that have a big range and include the 70's will have the higher values. 12" might be a bit low, but 20-22" seems a bit high. The typical storm tracks favor rain in Cincinnati more than other Midwestern cities... but we do well in the ones that get suppressed a bit, while the rest of the Midwest gets screwed. Then of course there's clippers... quite hit-or-miss. So I think the middle ground is a good compromise.

 

There's a bunch of maps when you search "Ohio average annual snowfall" on Google

https://www.google.com/search?q=ohio+average+annual+snowfall&biw=1600&bih=799&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAWoVChMI1PDCuaWvxwIVBaoeCh3RFQJZ#

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I had to do some digging but the normal value for Cincinnati is 22.1" for the year. I went back and looked at a daily climate summary from back in late June before the snow year flips, so this is off of the NWS site. That being said I had a hard time finding their year to year data, which was probably lost in the downgrade of the NWS sites. 

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I had to do some digging but the normal value for Cincinnati is 22.1" for the year. I went back and looked at a daily climate summary from back in late June before the snow year flips, so this is off of the NWS site. That being said I had a hard time finding their year to year data, which was probably lost in the downgrade of the NWS sites. 

Interesting. Thanks for doing the research

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i will not be complaining if we have a warm winter

 

A warm winter wouldn't be too bad after the last few that were really cold at times.  As long as we get a few decent snow events I think many will be happy.  Of course a warm winter sounds good in theory, but a "warm" winter can mean a lot of cold rain, and we all  know how irritating that can be lol.  No matter what our individual preferences and seasonal forecasts are, the weather is gonna do what it's gonna do and we'll all just have to sit back and see what happens and deal with whatever it is.  

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Interesting. Thanks for doing the research

Since 1893, Cincinatti's longterm avg is 20.7", slightly lower than the current 30-yr norm stebo quoted. The snowiest winter on record was 53.9" in 1977-78, the least snowy was 1.6" in 1918-19. Remember...xmacis has all data you could want.

 

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/#

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Apparently you guys need to move to Cincinnati :wacko2:

Funny and somewhat off topic, but I certainly had no idea of the variability of micro-climo from place to place within the region until I joined the board a few years ago. It's simple enough, and I should have realized it, but one has a tendency to get so MBY centric.

For example, I never used to really pay attention to what Lake Michigan does to weather/climo on the other side of the lake. Sure they get lake effect snow in the winter with more regularity, but depending on other factors, severe storms, heat waves, etc are blunted by the effects of the lake.

Also, until this past winter, I was grossly unaware of how miserable the Ohio valley's snow climo is. Growing up in central Illinois, I thought that I missed a lot of snowstorms there. I can only imagine being 200 miles further south.

Puts things in perspective year round, even if I am as guilty as anyone at being MBY centric.

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Funny and somewhat off topic, but I certainly had no idea of the variability of micro-climo from place to place within the region until I joined the board a few years ago. It's simple enough, and I should have realized it, but one has a tendency to get so MBY centric.

For example, I never used to really pay attention to what Lake Michigan does to weather/climo on the other side of the lake. Sure they get lake effect snow in the winter with more regularity, but depending on other factors, severe storms, heat waves, etc are blunted by the effects of the lake.

Also, until this past winter, I was grossly unaware of how miserable the Ohio valley's snow climo is. Growing up in central Illinois, I thought that I missed a lot of snowstorms there. I can only imagine being 200 miles further south.

Puts things in perspective year round, even if I am as guilty as anyone at being MBY centric.

The great Lakes temper heat waves, cold waves, & bring excessive cloudiness to this side of the Lake.

There is quite a north to south gradient from southern MI to southern OH.

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Funny and somewhat off topic, but I certainly had no idea of the variability of micro-climo from place to place within the region until I joined the board a few years ago. It's simple enough, and I should have realized it, but one has a tendency to get so MBY centric.

For example, I never used to really pay attention to what Lake Michigan does to weather/climo on the other side of the lake. Sure they get lake effect snow in the winter with more regularity, but depending on other factors, severe storms, heat waves, etc are blunted by the effects of the lake.

Also, until this past winter, I was grossly unaware of how miserable the Ohio valley's snow climo is. Growing up in central Illinois, I thought that I missed a lot of snowstorms there. I can only imagine being 200 miles further south.

Puts things in perspective year round, even if I am as guilty as anyone at being MBY centric.

Lol, well 16-20" of average annual snow isn't as bad as I thought... that's more than 4/3 more snow than I thought. But we average ~9" of precip in the winter (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USOH1019)... so obviously a big amount of that is rain. We do well with cool season severe events though... so that's always a fun change of pace.

 

 

The great Lakes temper heat waves, cold waves, & bring excessive cloudiness to this side of the Lake.

There is quite a north to south gradient from southern MI to southern OH.

Yup... that damn I-70 snow barrier/climate border. Then there's also the I-71 dividing line... lol.
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Lol, well 16-20" of average annual snow isn't as bad as I thought... that's more than 4/3 more snow than I thought. But we average ~9" of precip in the winter (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USOH1019)... so obviously a big amount of that is rain. We do well with cool season severe events though... so that's always a fun change of pace.

Yup... that damn I-70 snow barrier/climate border. Then there's also the I-71 dividing line... lol.

While it certainly hasn't been the case during the last few severe winters, I can remember many times in years past where the gradient from Detroit to Toledo can be crazy.
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