forkyfork Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 the gfs is faster with bill and has 90+ for the metro sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 June gloom at noon TEB: 65 NYC: 67 EWR: 67 LGA: 66 JFK: 69 ISP: 69 New Brunswick: 63 BLM: 70 -------------front---------- TTN: 72 PHL: 80 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 1PM TEB: 64 NYC: 66 EWR: 65 LGA: 66 JFK: 69 ISP: 68 New Brunswick: 67 BLM: 70 TTN: 74 PHL: 81 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Its Looking like we could have a good severe weather day on tuesday according to the GFS and NAM. SPC even has a TOR signal over the area on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 A sun sighting, id like to report a large brightness coming from the sky in London.. I mean ..Monroe, NJ. Some bigger breaks to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bill is likely to track right a long the warm front so if you end up South of that you might stay mostly dry tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The 12z Euro tracks Bill and the heavy overrunning rains right across the area from west to east. It has mid to upper 80's behind the storm as we get breaks of sun in the afternoon. So the Euro track is further south than the GFS like the other guidance. It also has Tuesday as the warmest day with severe potential later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bill is likely to track right a long the warm front so if you end up South of that you might stay mostly dry tonight Looking good. I think allot of people are in for surprise. Should have wind gusts up to 40. And of course heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Central and southern NJ probably get some severe weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Biggest severe risk in a few.years coming Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Biggest severe risk in a few.years coming Tuesday Derecho with a few discrete supercells ahead of the line lets go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Derecho with a few discrete supercells ahead of the line lets go!!! Good parameters even for the coast for once on the models. Might be a mod risk day for much of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. I agree. But on the current event I'm sitting in my backyard less then a mile from the bay and the wind has finally pick up allot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. It's def looks more widespread north of here but it's still a good setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 It's def looks more widespread north of here but it's still a good setup for us. Looks like you scored today. It's funny on the south shore when you win with just a little bit of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Todays ugly dingy high/low. Most sites north of TTN had midnight highs. Sun never made it north of 195. NYC: 75/64 (-3) EWR: 74/65 (-4) LGA: 73/64 (-5) JFK: 75/67(-1) TTN: 75/69 (+0) PHL: 86/71 (+4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 This looks about 6 - 9 hours. Hopefully its out by 8-10 AM or sooner and thn clearing by 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Going to get really warm today as we start to see breaks of sun behind Bill. The warm spots like Newark should reach mid to upper 80's to maybe near 90. Tuesday continues to look like we potentially rival or surpass the warmest day of June so far with a severe thunderstorm potential dropping down from the NW. The EPS show the trough returning to the NE Thursday to close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers our there. Remnants of Bill. Good riddance NYC: 0.35 EWR: 0.24 LGA: 025 JFK: 0.22 New Brunswick: 0.35 TTN: 0.40 PHL: 0.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Thru 6/20 NYC: -0.4 EWR: -0.6 LGA: -1.5 JFK: +0.4 MMU: +0.3 TTN: +1.4 PHL: +2.2 With 10 days to go 21 - 23 : look much above 24 - 26 : near normal 27 - 30 : normal or below Going to be close but would lean negatives north of TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Skies brightening and breaks of sun into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Some of us could sneak in a heatwave over the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Some of us could sneak in a heatwave over the next 3 days While there is clearing, today will still be close as plenty of clouds on/off. But certainly a possibility. For tue pending on clouds and any storms could see hottest temps in 2 years. Beyond there, as is currently projected temps will be capped in the 78 - 84 range for max highs with plenty of storm chances 6/26 - 7/3. Lets hope the WAR can build west ala 2013 (for those of us rooting on summer weather/heat) because the ridge looks anchored into the west in a big way for 10 days to 2 weeks beginning Thu 6/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Sun breaking through here. Up to 77. Lets see if I can add 13F to get to 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 We'll probably finish above normal here. It looks very toasty next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 10AM Roundup TEB: 76 NYC: 76 EWR: 77 LGA: 75 JFK: 75 ISP: 71 New Brunswick: 76 BLM: 75 TTN: 77 PHL: 80 ACY: 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 We'll probably finish above normal here. It looks very toasty next few days. Issue will be 6/26 - 6/30. Some guidance is quite ugly (to most) Some days like yesterday with clouds and 70s only. That can yield -5 to -8 dailies. I think we'll be above by and through Friday, beyond there is seemingly tough. Either way a nice rebound from the first week of -6 to -9's. We've also dealt with clouds and hung up fronts in what should've been an otherwise warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 We'll probably finish above normal here. It looks very toasty next few days. June is turning out just like April did. Cool in New England with warm in the mid-Atlantic. The battle zone between above or below normal should cut right through New Jersey again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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