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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


mackerel_sky

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1 hr · Edited ·

NHC has issued a special tropical weather outlook - Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are, at best, marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. After tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service at www.weather.gov

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Oh well --- it tried...

435 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion onthe low pressure area near Wilmington, North Carolina.1. Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activityassociated with the low pressure area near Wilmington, NorthCarolina is poorly organized.  However, an Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter aircraft found an area of gale-force winds over theAtlantic Ocean well to the east and southeast of the center.  Thereis still a short window of opportunity for this system to become atropical cyclone before it merges with a frontal system Wednesday orWednesday night.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains andgusty winds will continue to spread along the coastal areas of NorthCarolina through tonight. For additional information on this system,see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued bythe National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Could get interesting if it can make it to the western ATL, the Bermuda high should keep it heading west if it doesn't recurve before it gets to 45-50W. If it gets under the ridge and stays there then 8-10 days from now it could be a threat to SE......still its a 30% chance Cape Verde that is 10-12 days out so there will be plenty of time to watch it, most of the models don't do much with it.

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NHC getting a bit bullish on the Cape Verde system......

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave and a surface low pressure system located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are producing a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, which are beginning
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek as the disturbance moves westward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart

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Latest HWRF run still takes 96L to a cane, it also flattens out the recurve a bit and is much less sharp with it.....that said it still to far north at the end of the run to be a legit threat to the US

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=96L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015081712&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Gonna be a TD today if it can maintain the look it had overnight....... 70/80 now 

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands have become better organized over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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We have Danny will need a thread on this one, track is interesting keeps it south and west...takes it to a 100 mph cane by then too....

Just looking at that ... he's kinda south of what we tend to usually see, and if the early (pay and private) models are even nearly right, he may just avoid the shear on the north and the mountains on the islands and make it into the GOM without getting torn up. Will be interesting to watch, for sure.

 

:underthewx:

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Just looking at that ... he's kinda south of what we tend to usually see, and if the early (pay and private) models are even nearly right, he may just avoid the shear on the north and the mountains on the islands and make it into the GOM without getting torn up. Will be interesting to watch, for sure.

 

:underthewx:

 

Not sure he makes the GOM, HWRF has been the most consistent so far and it keeps wanting to recurve it on the eastern side of the BH but that's unlikely IMO and every run it just moves the turn a bit further west......think Florida and up the east coast has a better chance of getting hit with the long range stuff showing more troughs unless it can stay REALLY south. At least its something to watch and most models develop the next wave as well and have it in the islands by early Sept.

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